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@ztinvesting
ztinvesting
$73.6M follower assets
Young investor looking for innovative, disruptive companies with huge potential. - See my holdings below. Feel free to message me. Always do your own research.
36 following581 followers
What I'm Doing During This Market Downturn
(1) Reassessing low-conviction positions. Whenever the market takes a downward turn, I am able to better evaluate my positions to see which I am most comfortable in and bullish on and which I would rather rotate into my winners. Over the last two weeks, I have reassessed a variety of positions, deciding to hang on to some small positions that I am unsure about for now ($CLOV, $IPOE, etc.), while selling some others ($FSLY & $FUBO).

(2) Adding to highest-conviction positions. With good prices available the last two weeks and increased confidence in some companies following recently reported excellent quarters, I have added to some of my favorite companies. This week, for example, I added to $PTON, $DKNG, $TWLO, $TDOC and $PTON, while making $SE the largest position in my portfolio.

(3) Making sure I truly understand all my positions. As someone currently holding ~40 positions, it is important to ensure that I truly understand all of my companies and confidently feel that I can explain them to others. When the market is up, it is easy to justify holding any company. When it is down, this is not always the case

(4) Most importantly, doing anything other than stare at my shrinking portfolio. Investing is a long-term game. Right now, I am back to where I was at the beginning of December. In a few years, I anticipate that I'll have no idea this pullback even happened. So sit tight, don't panic, and stick to your process.

Would love to hear what everyone else is doing. Pullbacks are never fun, but they are a great time to improve your investing style and reevaluate your positions.

I did make some changes the last two weeks sold $TAN and $BAND added to $TSLA $ETSY and $OZON and started position in $TTD. I try to pre-plan any changes during weekends and then adapt the plan during week based on environment.
Even though some newer positions are down big I can say I have reviewed my holdings and I am comfortable with each of them. My dollars get allocated based on the confidence I have in each individual company. The daily stock prices are an uncontrollable factor but investing is definitely hard and unpredictable.
+ 4 comments
Healthcare/Medtech Stocks I am Excited About
The healthcare industry is one that is clearly outdated, and from insurance to technology, it is in massive need of disruption. Some companies I am excited about:

$TDOC - telehealth and chronic condition monitoring services

$NNOX - advanced, cheaper, more effective x-ray machines

$LGVW - portable, handheld ultrasound device

$TMDX - machines with the capability to transport live organs

$CLOV - innovative, AI-backed insurance offering for seniors

$ARKG - Ark ETF covering gene-editing, CRISPR, and other themes

Two that I have been watching, but do not own shares of:


What are your thoughts on these companies, and what companies am I missing? I plan to post a longer thread either here or on Twitter sometime soon about why I believe these companies in particular are so disruptive.

Great plays, all with tremendous market position as well. I would play $CRSP outright as I want more exposure than just through $ARKG. $PACB poised for upside as well imo. Thanks for posting!
+ 3 comments
Where I Get My Stock Ideas
Hi everyone, I thought it might be useful to share where I get my stock ideas, especially for anyone building or looking to add to a portfolio. (Note: I am not trying to sell anything, but just thought this might be useful to some).

  1. The Motley Fool - My family and I are long-time members of the Motley Fool Stock Advisor ($199/year) and the Motley Fool Rule Breakers ($299/year). Both services offer 2 monthly recommendations, plus lists of stocks that the Motley Fool believes are "best buys now," along with countless articles. Stock Advisor is great when first building a portfolio, and TMF's research is always great. Rule Breakers is great when looking for riskier, high-growth investments. The Motley Fool is where I first got started investing, and the knowledge I have taken from them is incredible. There are also tons of free articles on their website, and you can follow some of their top people (David Gardner, Brian Feroldi, Danny Vena, and more) on Twitter.
  2. 7investing - A newer site similar to the Motley Fool, 7investing offers 7 picks from a variety of different sectors and risk levels per month. The service costs $170 annually and continues to add great people and exciting features. Like the Motley Fool, 7investing conducts great research on their recommendations; however, individuals each recommend one pick per month, rather than the entire team, like at the Fool. If you use the link https://7investing.com/subscribe/aff/19/ when signing up, you can get $10 off your first month! Their people are also on Twitter, including Simon Erickson, Austin Lieberman, and more.
  3. Twitter - If you do not already follow investing accounts on Twitter, I could not recommend highly enough that you do so. Twitter has given me countless stock ideas and significantly improved my investing strategy, all for free. You can follow me on Twitter @ztinvesting, and feel free to message me or view the accounts that I follow to find some great people on Twitter.
  4. Here! - I know Commonstock is just getting off the ground, but I have already found some great ideas on this platform. Definitely be on the lookout for memos and trades from your favorite investors to get ideas for companies to research!

What resources am I missing? I know paying for a service is never ideal, but for anyone looking to build a portfolio, the reliability of some paid services is absolutely worth the cost. Thoughts? Feel free to reach out with any questions!
7investing
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Analyzing Moats: The Factors I Consider
A company's moat, or its ability to prevent others from disrupting its market, is an important part of its ability to have success over the long term. When analyzing companies for investment, I pay careful attention to the moat.

I look at the following six factors:
  1. Network Effects - when each additional user adds value to the product, the company has a strong network effect. $ETSY is a great example. As more and more sellers bring unique products to Etsy's platform, more and more buyers are drawn in. As more buyers use the platform, more sellers are enticed to sell on it, and so on.
  2. Switching Costs - a company has high switching costs when users would face challenges or a significantly worse experience if they switched away from the company. $TWLO is a good example of this. Their software is very difficult and expensive to develop, and thus, any company choosing to develop the software on their own would incur high costs.
  3. Assets - assets that are important to consider include brand, patents, and government protection. For brand, think of $Z (Zillow), whose brand is googled more frequently than the term "real-estate." Speaking of which, $GOOG is another company with a great brand.
  4. Cost Advantage - a company with a strong cost advantage has a leg up over new entrants to the market (think scale, low-cost production, effective distribution, etc.). $AMZN is a clear example of this. Because of their extreme scale and effective distribution network, $AMZN is very difficult to disrupt.
  5. Counter-Positioning - when a company is counter-positioning, that means that its competitors would actually be harmed by adopting its business model. $TSLA, for example, does not use traditional car dealerships, but rather sells their cars online. Other car companies cannot simply cut their dealerships, at least without facing significant harm in the short term.
  6. Widening - finally, and simply, is the moat widening relative to the competition, or is it narrowing? For most quality, growing companies, the moat is widening relative to the competition.

What other moat factors do you all look at?

@woxley01/03/2021
Just off the top of my head, is their one for execution (&/or talent)? For example, everyone has had the idea to sell coffee but Howard Shultz and SBUX built a coffee empire with superior execution and ambition. Now thinking through it, it may be to qualitative to make it a moat. I was thinking of brand too, but I feel that is encompassed through Assets.
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7 Factors to Research When Considering an International Investment
When considering an investment in an international stock, whether it be a popular one ($MELI, $SE, $OZON, etc.) or a more obscure one, it is important to do your research. Here are seven factors that I think should be considered when researching any international stock (and some sub-questions that are worth asking):

1. Culture
How is the product/service being offered perceived culturally?
What is the cultural relevance of the business?
How, if at all, do these differences affect this business relative to its American counterpart, if one exists?

2. Infrastructure
Can the country/region’s infrastructure adequately support the business?
How would improvements in the infrastructure affect the business?

3. Industry
What is the current state of this industry within the country or region?
Is there a need for disruption, and importantly, is that disruption possible?
What competitors exist, both locally and internationally?

4. Economy
How is the overall economy in the country faring?
How is the relevant sector affected by the economy?
Are there any economic trends that I should be concerned about?
How, if at all, could inflation affect my investment?

5. Government
How do government factors (corruption, security, elections, regulation, etc.) impact the company or industry?
Are there specific risks to the company as a result of the government?

6. Accounting Standards
Are companies held to the same level of scrutiny as American companies or are they based in countries that are notorious for shady standards (Russia, China, etc.)?

7. Market Opportunity
Considering the aforementioned factors along with population etc., what is a realistic estimate of the TAM and growth opportunity?

What other factors do you all look at, and what are some of your favorite international stocks?

This is a great list - I think (5) can be very difficult to understand and predict. One other item I might add as a separate category would be currency risk/volatility.
+ 5 comments
Portfolio Breakdown By Theme
A few days ago, I posted a list of some of the themes that I thought would define the 2020s. Below is a list of the top five themes in my portfolio:

  1. E-Commerce - 29.81% - $AMZN, $MELI, $SE etc.
  2. SaaS - 24.44% - $TTD, $DOCU, $CRWD etc.
  3. Advanced Tech. - 11.13% - $AAPL, $NVDA, $SPCE etc.
  4. Financial Tech. - 9.96% - $SQ, $PYPL, $MA etc.
  5. Remote Lifestyle - 6.00% - $ZM, $FVRR, $PTON

I understand that these categories are very rough estimates. The stocks within my SaaS basket, for instance, can hardly be grouped into one, and the same can be said about the "remote lifestyle" basket. Nevertheless, these themes help me to understand where I am significantly invested (e-commerce) and where I want to invest more (real estate disruption; clean energy).

Which themes top your portfolio, and which are you hoping to add to?

Great post.

I do this often in about a dozen different types of groupings 😁

Most are universal like sector, type, market cap, etc.

But the one I use the most is a custom category that groups them into “why” I have them in my portfolio

Categories like advertising, e-com, consumer, dividends, etc.

You’ve inspired me, I’m going to try and write something up on it tomorrow 🙏
Add a comment…
The Benefits and Risks of Investing in Russia ($OZON & Others)
Over the last decade, BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) have emerged as new-world economic players, building some of the largest economies in the world and competing with the U.S. and Western Europe. In the process, these countries have offered some compelling investments for American investors: Alibaba ($BABA) and Tencent ($TCEHY) in China, StoneCo ($STNE) and PagSeguro ($PAGS) in Brazil, and so on. In the last week, however, Fintwit and other investing platforms have been ablaze with a new IPO out of Russia: Ozon ($OZON). An e-commerce company modeled after Amazon, Ozon has grown rapidly during the pandemic, and its stock has taken off in the U.S. as part of this year's e-commerce craze. Like many of today's international e-commerce darlings, MercadoLibre ($MELI), Sea Limited ($SE), and Jumia ($JMIA) to name a few, $OZON has the potential to be hugely successful, but there are also some concerning risks that investors should be aware of. This memo outlines some of the benefits of investing in Russia as well as some of the biggest risks.

The Russian Market Opportunity & Benefits to Investing There
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia's economy has developed into one of the largest, and surprisingly one of the more advanced, economies in the world. Russia is the 9th most populous country in the world, and its economy is the world's 11th largest. The country has emerging IT and telecommunications industries and rich deposits of valuable natural resources. Importantly, Russia has the 7th most internet users in the entire world, the highest level of any European country.

All in all, this bodes well for e-commerce and other internet-based trends in the country. The well-educated, internet-using population could certainly be a catalyst for the rapid development of e-commerce in the region. With a massive market opportunity, there is plenty of room for companies like $OZON to grow, making them a compelling investment.

The Risks of Investing in Russia
Despite the size and the quick development of the Russian market, there are serious risks to investors that must be considered:

  • Lack of Regulation - Russia does little to regulate accounting standards and business transparency in their country, especially relative to the strict standards of the United States. Similar to China, this does not necessarily imply that all Russian companies are fraudulent, but rather that the Luckin Coffee ($LKNCY) horror story that investors saw earlier this year in China could just as easily have happened in Russia.

  • Overall Instability - Both politically and economically, there is instability in Russia. Although this instability has yet to manifest into any major conflict, there is legitimate concern that any sort of large-scale instability could negatively affect business outcomes

  • Reliance on Natural Resources - Natural resources make up an estimated 60% of Russia's GDP. The sector employs a significant part of Russia's working force, and when commodity prices drop, a ripple effect is felt throughout the entire economy. Thus, even if investors are invested in an e-commerce company, they could see diminished returns due to commodity cycles entirely outside of that company's control.

  • Politics - Vladimir Putin and the Russian government are notorious for their discreet, corrupt, and sometimes violent method of governing. While this has implications throughout the Russian economy, there are concerns about the effects on major Russian companies. One only needs to look to the story of Yukos as an example. In the early 2000s, Yukos was one of Russia's largest and most successful oil companies. In 2003, however, CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky had a falling out with Russian President Vladimir Putin. As the conflict between the two deepened, Putin had Khodorkovsky sent to court based on baseless charges. The Putin-allied courts subsequently sentenced Khodorkovsky to eight years in prison, ending his tenure as Yukos CEO and effectively guaranteeing the company's downfall. In fact, over the next few months, Yukos was forced into bankruptcy and its shares were sold off at a fraction of their original price to Putin allies.

  • Corruption - Despite its increasing levels of development, Russia is rated as one of the most corrupt countries in the entire world, on par with countries like Iran, Nigeria, and Guatemala.

Overall, in one form or another, significant risks exist in just about any developing economy. Although companies like $MELI and $SE have proven their worth, they too face risks that American companies typically do not have to worry about. Nevertheless, I have closely studied these risks and feel like the risk-reward is worth it for $MELI, $SE, and others. The same cannot be said, however, about Russia, and thus I do not plan to start a position in $OZON any time soon.

Sources:
Russia Business Today
Natural Resources Make up 60% of Russia’s Economy: Report - Russia Business Today
Russia’s Natural Resources and Environment Ministry estimates that the combined worth of the country’s oil, gas and other resources amounts to 60 percent of its gross domestic product, RBC reported on Thursday. Russia’s economy is heavily reliant on exports of its resources, as the country is one of the world’s top producers of natural gas and …

Appreciate the detailed write up 🙏

Started a position this week, but keeping it sized appropriately for the risk. 😏

Keep up the good work 👍
+ 2 comments
Opendoor ($IPOB) and Metromile ($INAQ), Two Chamath-Backed IPOs Changing the Way We Live
Buying a house and buying car insurance are two essential, painful, and high-expense parts of many American adults' lives. Despite the prominence of these markets, each is outdated, fragmented, and could hardly be described as consumer-friendly.
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Some statistics to demonstrate this:
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Scale
  • $250B US personal auto insurance market
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Fragmentation
  • No US carrier has more than a 20% share
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Inefficiency
  • Traditional car insurance rates are unfair to the majority of drivers. Drivers are assigned to a "class" and charged the same rate as everyone in that class, even though there is a wide range of drivers within any particular class. In fact, 35% of drivers drive more than half the miles and charge more than half the losses.
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  • Thus, 65% of drivers overpay for auto insurance
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Scale
  • $1.6T/year real estate market
  • 68% of Americans are homeowners
  • 5 million homes are sold annually
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Fragmentation
  • There are over 2 million realtors in the US
  • 28% have another occupation
  • 66% have less than 15 annual transactions
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Inefficiency
  • 89% of buyers and sellers use an agent
  • The process, on average, looks something like: find an agent, repair and prep the house, list the house for sale, wait several months, host open houses and showings, receive and negotiate an offer, buyer inspection, negotiate repairs, search for a new home, wait for close on your current home (during which 20% of deals fall through), miss out on your dream home, settle for an available home, and finally, move. A headache, right?
  • At the same time, the various fees associated with selling and home and paying for an agent cost up to 12% of the final transaction
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The point is, these two industries just flat out suck. 65% of people get screwed on their car insurance. Nobody likes buying and selling a home, and doing so is such an awful, costly process that it overruns your life. Throughout the course of a person's life, the amount of time and money they waste trying to deal with outdated real estate and insurance systems has to just be astronomical.
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Now, Metromile and Opendoor are two companies looking to fix these problems.
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First, for car insurance: Metromile.
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  • Metromile aims to offer car insurance that you pay for only when you use it.
  • Each user pays a $29/month flat fee, plus roughly 5.4 cents per mile they drive. By installing a small device in users' vehicles, Metromile tracks the miles driven and charges per mile.
  • According to their data, if you drive 2,500 miles, you save $961 per year. If you drive 6,000 miles, you save $741 per year, and if you drive 10,000 miles, you save $489 miles per year.
  • Thus, the average customer saves 47% per year on their insurance.
  • The company has a Net Promoter Score of 55, 14 points higher than the auto insurance industry average of 41, and their claims NPS is a whopping 75.
  • Moreover, they have developed a loyal customer base. The average life expectancy of a new policy is 3.4 years, and that number jumps to 5.2 years once the customer stays for a year.
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On to real estate: Opendoor.
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  • Opendoor is disrupting the traditional real estate industry by buying, fixing, and selling homes themselves.
  • Anyone can apply to sell their home on Opendoor, who then makes an online cash offer within a few days, offers a flexible closing date and digital closing, and then offers thousands of homes on their website/app that buyers can view, visit, and buy.
  • Opendoor charges a 7% flat fee, saving sellers money compared to a traditional listing.
  • They are a market leader, selling 4.4x more homes than the next competitor, and claim to be 12x more efficient than a traditional agent.
  • Opendoor has an NPS of 70, significantly higher than a traditional real estate agency.
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THE THESIS FOR INVESTMENT:
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  • Metromile ($INAQ) has experienced a 76% annual average premium growth over the last four years. 45M drivers use Metromile today, and they expect that number to increase substantially over the next decade. Currently, Metromile only operates in 8 states. By 2021, they intend to operate in 21 states, and by 2022, they intend to operate in 49. Thus, Metromile doesn't have to dominate the market to be a winner. They don't even have to be the next Geico or State Farm. If the company can do the same thing they're doing in 8 states in an additional 41 over the next couple of years, that represents a massive avenue for growth. Any additional market share captured, which they have a legitimate chance of doing, is an added bonus.
  • Opendoor ($IPOB), likewise, grew revenue from 2018 to 2019 at 159% Y/Y. In their first 6 markets (US cities), in which they hold a 3.2% market share, Opendoor had $2.7B in revenue in the first quarter of 2020. Today, they are in 21 markets, with a 2.0% market share and $5B in Q1 2020 revenue. If Opendoor can simply reach a 4% market share in 100 markets, that would give them $50B in quarterly revenue or roughly 10x from where they are today.
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Therefore, neither of these companies has to dominate the market to be a winner. By simply expanding to more states, which both intend to do, $IPOB and $INAQ can be huge winners, and both certainly have the potential to be market leaders. I currently hold a position in $IPOB and will be starting one in $INAQ soon.
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Would love to hear everyone's thoughts about these companies! Thanks for reading!

I'm bullish on $IPOB. I think they have a fantastic opportunity. Another tailwind is that millennials are just starting to buy houses and will continue to make up a larger portion of home buyers and sellers. They'll be looking for a digital native and frictionless experience.

I didn't know much about Metromile nor that they were going public. Thanks for the heads up, I'm going to check them out.
+ 5 comments
10 Trends for the 2020s
Hello everyone!
I am very excited to be a part of this platform and am very grateful to @mcd for all of the hard work he has put in developing this incredible platform. I have just started exploring all that Commonstock has to offer, and I am looking forward to being along for the ride as this platform grows.
A bit about my investing strategy: I am a young investor with a long-term, buy-and-hold outlook. I am looking for innovative, disruptive companies with mass appeal to younger generations and huge growth potential. Overall, my portfolio is molded around two main ideas, both taken from the great David Gardner:
  • "Make your portfolio reflect your best vision for the future." I invest in companies that I believe are pushing the world forward in a meaningful, inclusive, and sustainable fashion. When a company falls out of line with my best vision for the future, I put my money elsewhere.
  • "Find out where the world is going - and get there as soon as possible." Between my life experiences, reading, research, and conversations, I have attempted to continuously shape my understanding of where the world is going. As I find trends that I believe reflect the future of our society, I search for companies capitalizing on those trends and invest in those that I find to be exciting.
Those trends are the subject of this post. See below for my thoughts on ten exciting trends that I believe will come to define the 2020s, as well as some of my top investment ideas for each!
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1. E-Commerce - As society becomes more and more interconnected and focused on convenience, e-commerce is a trend that is poised to thrive. We have already seen the potential that e-commerce can have with $AMZN, but there is plenty of exciting potential elsewhere as well. Over the next decade, I expect e-commerce to thrive globally. Top Ideas: $AMZN, $SHOP, $MELI, $SE . . .
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2. Financial Technology - Young people are increasingly distrustful of banks and increasingly excited by technology-based companies that help manage and improve financial outcomes. At the same time, banks have historically left out significant portions of the population and have lost the faith of the people in countries across the world (Brazil, etc.). Some very exciting companies have emerged to fill this void, and I expect great results from them over the long-term. Top Ideas: $SQ, $PYPL, $MA, $STNE . . .
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3. Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) - Over the last few years, a plethora of high-growth, exciting software companies have emerged. These companies offer cutting-edge services that save others time and money, while making business operations faster, more efficient, and more valuable. All SaaS companies will definitely not be successful, but the best of them have huge runways for growth. Top Ideas: $CRWD, $DOCU, $DDOG, $TWLO . . .
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4. Advanced Technology - As society advances, people's technological needs become more specified and more advanced. While this shift has left some historical winners behind, it has accelerated the growth of a handful of exciting advanced tech. companies. Top Ideas: $NVDA, $AAPL, $GOOG, $MSFT . . .
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5. Clean Energy - With climate change as a prominent issue, society is making a massive shift towards clean energy sources. Alternative energy sources such as solar and nuclear power are gaining more and more traction, while electric vehicles are captivating drivers across the globe. This is a young, crowded space, but some leaders are certainly emerging in this high-growth industry. Top Ideas; $TSLA, $MP, $SEDG, $ENPH . . .
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6. Healthcare - The healthcare industry is outdated, inaccessible, and undesirable to patients throughout the world. Between costly insurance plans, outdated technologies, and absurd prices, there is plenty of room for disruption. In the last few years, dozens of thrilling companies have emerged to fill these voids, and offer promising returns to shareholders over the next decade. Top Ideas: $TDOC, $NNOX, $ISRG, $TMDX . . .
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7. Remote Lifestyle - Coupled with the interconnectivity that has been brought about by globalization, the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated a societal shift to a more remote lifestyle. This does not necessarily mean work from home, but rather an overall trend in which people across the globe can access essential services, conduct international meetings, and hire global talent from the comfort of their own home. Not all pandemic winners will thrive over the next decade, but some certainly will. Top Ideas: $ZM, $FVRR, $PTON, $WORK . . .
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8. Real Estate - In the United States specifically, the real estate industry is outdated, inefficient, and complicated. In recent years, a couple of innovative companies have debuted compelling alternatives to the traditional real estate system. In such a large industry, these companies offer investors a unique opportunity to invest in high-growth, easily understandable companies with a massive TAM. Top Ideas: $RDFN, $Z, $IPOB . . .
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9. Genomic Revolution - Gene editing companies have burst onto the scene over the last few years, promising revolutionary cures to complicated diseases and a massive shift in global medicine. An investment in these companies is highly speculative, but there are some incredible companies with the potential for huge returns in this industry. Top Ideas: $ARKG, $NVTA, $CRSP, $EDIT . . .
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10. Online Gambling - Online gambling, and particularly sports gambling, is a quickly growing market in the U.S. and globally that offers potentially huge returns for investors. There are some regulatory hurdles to clear, but I believe that those hurdles will be cleared over the next decade and that some big winners will emerge in this industry. Top Ideas: $DKNG, $PENN . .
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Thank you so much for reading this post! I would love to hear anyone's thoughts or comments on these trends or additional companies/trends that you believe will thrive over the next decade. I will be posting more thoughts on this platform over time, and I also post additional ideas on my twitter @ztinvesting!

Welcome to the community @ztinvesting! Psyched to have you here, what an incredible first memo!

Agree with so much you wrote, but the category really piquing my interest right now is Genomics. I just watched the $NFLX doc Human Nature and I've always been interested in CRISPR but I didn't realize how far it's come. And given the age of pandemics/diseases... I could see that world exploding.


Anyways, thanks for unreal first memo! We'll do everything we can to make this product & place valuable for you.
+ 4 comments
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