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Giro Lino's avatar
$18.3m follower assets
New Post About Payments $STNE $NU $MELI $PAGS
According to our proprietary research and expert channel checks, instant payments can affect many use cases involving merchants and consumers.

In the past month, we heard over a dozen CFOs and Senior Product Managers trying to map where instant payment schemes could offer a threat to profit.

Our perception is that C-level management doesn’t see Pix as a core, and Product Executives are solely focused on implementation.

Even though we agree they should focus on their respective roles, we missed more granularity about the economic impact of Pix.

So, illustrated below, we set our war table for estimating where and by how much Pix and probably most instant payment schemes should affect profit pools.

Source: Giro Lino.

We built this table based on the available evidence, gathering and processing all data since Pix was launched in the 3Q20 and in our new top-down model for payment companies.

The first evidence we highlight is the transaction market share. By the 4Q21, Pix had gained an 8.9% market share. Also, it’s worth mentioning that credit cards gained market share during the period.

As the following illustration shows, bank slips, wire transfers, and withdrawals (cash) were the main losers.

Source: Giro Lino, BCB.

However, based on historical growth, we observed that Debit and Prepaid Card growth decelerated since Pix was launched, raising the question of whether Pix isn’t stealing the incremental volume directed to Debit.

If that is the case, and the argument sounds reasonable, Debit card penetration should slow in the following years.

On the other hand, we see evidence of accelerating credit card adoption since Pix was launched. After deep research, we concluded there is a different external factor for such acceleration.

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April 2022 Bloodbath - Names Down >30% Since April 1
April 2022 was one of the worst market months of all time. In fact, it was the worst since October 2008. Here are 100 stocks down >30% since April 1:

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Giro Lino's avatar
$18.3m follower assets
Good News
I’m writing the post about the POS machines we bought in February. I had to make sure to be covering the essential topics. So, I went over a few hundred tests and am now good to move on to writing. Good stuff is coming up next month.
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Giro Lino's avatar
$18.3m follower assets
New US-Listed Brazilian Fintech
Inter Platform #BIDI11 should join $NU, $MELI, $STNE, and $PAGS as another US-Listed Brazilian Fintech.

We're writing a quick "101" so investors get to know more about the company.

Yet, the company didn't confirm the US Listing. This is solely my opinion based on years following the industry.

Let me know if you have any topic we should include in the "101".
Giro Lino's avatar
$18.3m follower assets
$PAGS Shows Solid Operational Trends in the 1Q22
$PAGS released operating data for 1Q22, showing solid consolidated TPV growth of 87% YoY to R$152bn in 1Q22.

Moreover, acquiring TPV grew 1% QoQ and 60% YoY, reaching R$80bn in 1Q22. Meanwhile, non-acquiring TPV rose 9% QoQ and 57% YoY.

Even though the company is delivering solid volumes and revenue growth in the past Qs, I'm still concerned with higher rates pressuring the bottom line.
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