hypescaleflow's avatar
$15.2m follower assets
Performance 6/27/22
Down -1.14% for they day.
I update my portfolio adding some of my favorite long term hardware and software stocks back to my portfolio. I’m planning to basically just add to these 12 stocks over the next year. I had all of these stocks back in November of last year and watch how they held up in this tech sell off, I think they are some of the best long term holds.
New allocations:
15% $AMZN
15% $GOOGL
15% $AAPL
15% $MSFT
5% $AMD
5% $MDB
5% $ZS
Also for the last 2 weeks I’ve been DCA $40 into $BTC.X every day, and I’ll plan on keep doing that till we get back to the $30k’s
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ThomasFJE's avatar
$2.7m follower assets
Stocks are not cheap. Here’s why.
If a recession takes place (which I think will). Then earnings of businesses will go down. Cost of capital will rise. Bad for business.
This will come forward in earnings revisions and lower guidances.

Trailing ratios will be hard to use for investors, because those do not show the true picture.
I think cybersecurity($CRWD $ZS $OKTA) and other sectors with a high net revenue retention won’t be hit as hard compared to other sectors (Advertising for example. YouTubers ad revenues have been declining for quite some time now!)
Cyclicality is a strong force.
“There are two concepts we can hold to with confidence: - Rule No. 1: Most things will prove to be cyclical. – Rule No. 2: Some of the greatest opportunities for gain and loss come when other people forget Rule No. 1.”
  • Howard Marks
Do you think stocks are cheap now?
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Depending on how your define a recession, you could argue we are already in one. Costs of capital have been rising, but that doesn't mean that if things start to get truly ugly that fed can't soften or reverse policy.

Most things are cyclical to an extent, but cyclicality isn't inherently bad. As much as people love to see numbers that smoothly go up and to the right, it's not a practical expectation for most operations, and attempting to achieve that will likely destroy value long term.

Anyone with large floating debt will obv feel pressure, but higher COC leads those with superior COC to further excel. Additional, those with ample cash on the balance sheet will inevitably be presented with all kinds of interesting opportunities.

This leads me to gravitate towards companies that can comfortably maintain self funding continued operations and aren't overly reliant on SBC. If persistent inflation is a concern, true pricing power matters more than ever. Higher rates also reduce available funding to would-be competitors and favors anyone with an existing large, capital intensive footprint.

I think it's key to remember that when environments become unfavorable, those conditions become long term tailwinds for operators that best navigate. No different than ships in a storm. Plenty of competition will batter their sails, crash on rocks, or sink to the ocean floors.

Plenty of ugly out there. Things can certainly become cheaper. If you have a longer timeframe I'm not sure that's too much of a concern. And if you have a short term timeframe choppy waters will present the best opportunities anyways.
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David's avatar
$8.5m follower assets
Here is a short and sweet one. $SHOP vs. $CRWD and why? GO!
Better performance in 10 years at current prices
40%$SHOP (Shopify)
59%$CRWD (CrowdStrike)
27 VotesPoll ended on: 06/25/22
Don't make me pick!

Edit: I chose CRWD but only because they have less big company competition. I own both and am very bullish on both.
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Steve Matt's avatar
$10.2m follower assets
Rule of 40^? How about the Rule of 100?
I'm in the process of updating my company metrics tracking spreadsheet and decided to include a calculation for the Rule of 40 for SaaS companies. Turns out I own a couple positions who meet the Rule of 100. What others are out there that aren't listed below?


Honorable mentions:

^ I use FCF for my margin.
Crowdstrike
$CRWD is one of my favourites, positive: revenue growth rate of 61%, 9 plus dollars of cash per share, industry not going away and making money. On the negative, has some debt, the share count is increasing and not a clear-cut #1 in the industry. I do own.
Hey Steve, welcome to Commonstock.

What makes you say it's not a clear-cut winner in the cybersec industry?
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Brian Stoffel's avatar
$44.9m follower assets
Our next purchase -- CrowdStrike $CRWD
@brianferoldi and I switch off every week picking the stock we'll be putting real money into. This week was my turn. I chose one of my highest-conviction (and currently my largest) holdings: CrowdStrike $CRWD

Here's why:

For starters: this is as mission-driven of a company as you'll ever find.

That shows the company has 22 tools and an App Store currently. When it went public less than three years ago, it had half as many. That underscores the optionality baked into CrowdStrike's business model.

While customer acquisition costs are high, we believe the moat around the company is wide enough that it justifies the spending.

The network effect is enhanced because the more customers $CRWD has, the better its' system is. When one user has a unique breach detected, all other current users receive (relatively quickly) a form of immunity. More users = better protection.

But not only that, the number of customers adopting MULTIPLE TOOLS has gone through the roof -- adding to switching costs.

While not "profitable" on a GAAP basis, this is a free cash flow machine with a stellar balance sheet.

We love the founder-led management team that gets great reviews and has lots of skin in the game

But it's worth acknowledging the biggest risks. Over the short-term: dilution and valuation. Over the long-term: competition and the risk of being hacked.

Looking ahead, this is where we'll be focusing our attention

All in all, it's one of the highest scoring companies on both of our frameworks

But what do YOU think of CrowdStrike: both the company and the stock?
CrowdStrike is...
73%A great company to buy today
26%Great..but stock too expensive
69 VotesPoll ended on: 06/23/22
Alphabet (Google) invested in Crowdstrike's series C funding round in 2015 and I remember reading an article about how this Google backed company would be a huge success around the IPO in 2019.
I still believe this company will be a huge success and glad the Brian's made it their pick this week. I will be investing another 100 dollars tomorrow.
Great work again!
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Austin Lieberman's avatar
$457.1m follower assets
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