Beaver Capital's avatar
$13.6m follower assets
June'22 - Growth Portfolio Update
Sells: None

I was on vacation most of the month, but made a few recent adds. Eyeing up some $MELI in the low 600's here.

YTD return: -42.2%
  • Tough month, but I am LT focused and believe adding on price weakness when the business metrics are improving is a prudent strategy.
  • Will deplete most of cash position in this weakness along with new cash coming in.

*can't link portfolio on CS currently due to not being in US.
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Most bought stocks this week!

Tough day for the stock market as inflation topped expectations once again. At least this means some stocks might be on sale! Let's take a look at the most bought stocks on Commonstock to see if we can get any ideas.

Here is a look at the daily performance for the eight most bought stocks over the last week. $AAPL is the best performer even though it is still down 3% on the day.

This chart looks at the annual growth rates for each of the last eight quarters. $DDOG, $TSLA, and $MSFT are the only three stocks that have seen accelerated revenue growth over this period.

$TWLO and $TSLA are two big outliers when comparing these stocks based on their forward sales multiples and revenue growth rates. Both of these stocks are trading at lower than expected valuations relative to their growth rates.

High inflation has investors looking hard at profitability. Here is how each of these stocks stacks up in terms of net income margin. Only $TWLO and $SNOW currently have negative margins.

What do you think? Do any of these stocks look like a possible buying opportunity?
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For sure - most of these will be larger companies in 3+ yrs than they are now.
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Samuel Meciar's avatar
$17.1m follower assets
So as I promised, I made some buys today from the proceedings of my sales of $COIN and $COUR I informed you about in my previous post.

I ended up almost doubling my position in $MNDY. Also added to $ADYEN.AS $TWLO $MSFT $NET and $SNOW.

$ADBE remains on my watchlist for adds, I want to add but first let's see their earnings in about a week, particularly looking at their Document Cloud in a context of DocuSign's results, though I have a feeling they won't see much weakness.

Also having $AAPL $PLTR $TEAM $SNOW and $ZS still on my watchlist for future adds.
Beaver Capital's avatar
$13.6m follower assets
May'22 - Growth Portfolio Update
Sells: None

I am confident in my portfolio right now, but I am doing some research on my watchlist: $DLO $GLBE $SNOW $DDOG $NU $S $APPS

YTD return: -30.9%
  • Another tough month for growth, but saw some rallys near end of May which was encouraging. Currently have some cash ready to deploy so I will continue to add on weakness.
  • Stay positive out there friends!

*can't link portfolio on CS currently due to not being in US.
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Samuel Meciar's avatar
$17.1m follower assets
Portfolio changes - update 10
Hello friends, I got an update for you, now with a rounded number

I decided to sell $AFRM + $PAYC, and here's my thinking:

  • I get a pretty decent exposure to $AFRM anyways through $SHOP, not only are they a sole processor for Shop Pay installments but are also invested in $AFRM, own about 7% of the shares (Class A+B combined)
  • I recognize the power of $SQ's Afterpay in combination with CApp and Square after I watched Block's Investor Day, it's just one well put ecosystem. Afterpay is also a bit larger in terms of GMV and has superior margins.

My overall plan is to just add to $SQ and $SHOP and chill.

When it comes to $PAYC I recognize the power of Square Payroll and HR solutions in combination with the whole ecosystem especially as they move more into Mid market, that's going to be interesting. Therefore it just makes sense for me to consolidate here.

I'm also selling $ZI $DOCN, no specific reason really, just want to move my capital into my highest conviction names.

Instead I went on a buying spree and got some $QCOM $RBLX $TWLO $SQ $SHOP $COUR $FVRR $HIMS $ADBE and $COIN.

Wrapping up, all $AFRM $DOCN $PAYC $ZI are great companies in my view, but like I said, it makes sense for me to consolidate, especially as I favor optionality over specialization at this point in time, while still maintaining an exposure to those players/spaces without further fragmentation.
Samuel Meciar's avatar
$17.1m follower assets
Portfolio changes - update 7
Hello friends, I've been continuously evaluating my portfolio over the weekend and I want to share with you what my end actions/conclusions are:

  • I sold $AMPL. For those not familiar, Amplitude is a leader in product and behavioral analytics which puts seemingly random data into a perspective. They compete with players such as Mixpanel or Pendo. All of those are pretty strong competitors, which on its own isn't a deal breaker, in theory all of those could win simultaneously as the space is huge. But, those insights get sent over into CDPs or Customer Data Platforms. Customer data platforms are basically a software which combines the data from all sorts of tools - like Amplitude - to create a centralized customer database containing data on all touch points and interactions with the product/service. Segment is no.1 in the space, used by huge players, acquired recently by Twilio (which I own). Now I realize that regardless of whether Amplitude, Mixpanel or Pendo wins the customer, they are likely using Twilio already for at least something and so the network effects kick in. Therefore I decided to play this space through $TWLO which is more diverse and not focused on just one product, but instead has a lot of functionality and owns the top player in the CDP which is where that data from Amplitude and others comes from anyways. So I'll have exposure. I just prefer that upper layer over the end layer.

  • I spent basically the whole day yesterday trying to understand $SNOW better, evaluating their first mover advantage when it comes to data evolution in cloud vs legacy, their relationship with SMBs and overall the culture of the company. I'm very impressed and the company fits a lot of my checkmarks. Frank maybe isn't the most visible CEO out there, but I somewhat admire his laser focus on innovation, not getting too comfortable with yourself, ... basically pushing the limits at all times. Both $MDB and $SNOW fit many of investing themes I build my portfolio around and give me an exposure to broad set of customers, even better so to those just scaling up whose success will be reflected in the amount they pay to those because of their usage based pricing. $PLTR does something similar, but their Data Mesh is way more early in the process and Palantir overall has way less clients (although more capitalized) than those two. These 3 companies I believe are the best of breed when it comes to anything data. In conclusion, I essentially dismissed Snowflake due to the valuation since the listing, I knew something but not nearly as much as I do today. Now that I'm better informed I decided to add this one into my portfolio. This no doubt is a very HQ company!

  • I also added more shares of $PATH today as I believe this is an incredible opportunity to load up more shares of this incredible beast!
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TA Lesson Of The Week: Bullish Engulfing
A bullish engulfing is often a sign of a short term trend reversal. If you see a bullish engulfing with higher than average volume, that gives more confluence to the trend reversal.

These trend reversals sometimes lead to just a day or two of green followed by more downside or can lead to a few weeks of green.

A few examples of these today include $FVRR, $U, $UPST, $TWLO, $SHOP.

All of these stocks are in steady downtrends which means stay patient on your long entries, but they are ones to watch tomorrow for continued strength.
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Love the visual here— if you had a position in Twilio, Shopify, Unity or Fiver, would you be leaning towards a day or two of green followed by more downside, or a few weeks of green, and what would you look at to try and help you determine this?

Curiosity only— not financial advice of course. Always an important reminder, but especially when the market is so unforgiving right now.
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Samuel Meciar's avatar
$17.1m follower assets
Portfolio changes - update 3
As you well know by now, I'm a huge proponent of transparency. And despite me sharing my portfolio publicly here which gets updated like every 1-2 days, I want to make sure I can tell you what I'm doing as close to real-time as I can. So here we go, shall we?

I put my money where my mouth is, which are my high conviction bets.

There's a few companies I'm still thinking about for various reasons, such as $ETSY $ADSK $TWLO and $PINS. I'll let you know about them when done with my thinking.

Stay strong! Have a great day!
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