Samuel Meciar's avatar
$8m follower assets
Portfolio changes - update 1
So I already made some changes on Thursday and Friday.

  • Sold $ZM - not a bad company by any means but since I'm doing some consolidation I decided to cut due to heated up competition with $GOOGL's Meet and Chat + $MSFT going straight after not only Zoom's core offering but even after their growth parts (take Zoom Phone vs Teams Phone as an example), but with one problem - Microsoft is including Teams into Win11 by default and including all the good stuff Teams has for businesses into Microsoft 365 packages which businesses already pay for, therefore the value proposition should be better than paying for additional service. So those are the headwinds I'm seeing.
  • Sold $DOCU due to troubled execution of Agreement Cloud, I was looking for an improvements this quarter, but since it's been a while now and they just recently hired a new president of global operations which should help them do just that, I don't expect any significant improvements this quarter really. I'll consider adding to my $ADBE where I see a pretty good execution of the Document Cloud and great relationship with Microsoft which already uses their solutions and integrates well within Office package.
  • Sold $KIND simply due to other ad-tech names coming down substantially, I see them as more lucrative and proven than say Nextdoor in the current context. Simply a consolidation decision.

  • Added to $HUBS and $MELI after stellar execution and fantastic results. They definitely are the winners I consider a core part of my portfolio.

I'm thinking of some other changes at the time though not yet decided, mainly around streaming services, so think $NFLX and $DIS. I've been also rewatching Tony Seba's notes on Energy, Transportation, Agriculture and Food: https://youtu.be/Kj96nxtHdTU brilliant mind, go check it out, it's bonkers!!, and also watched the RethinkX film which explains all the fundamental shifts coming this decade in a perfectly understandable and fascinating form - https://youtu.be/r71yNnfY6ss

I definitely want to adjust my portfolio to that too, so there's some more thinking going on inside my head.

Have a great rest of the weekend!
Samuel Meciar's avatar
$8m follower assets
Brief news 4/5/22
$AMD reported earnings, here visualized:

$ABNB reported earnings, here visualized:

Airbnb's CEO Brian Chesky also announced a large event coming in a week on May 11 where the company should unveil the largest changes to the platform in a decade.

$AFRM to become a first BNPL partner fully integrated to Carat operating system from enterprise payment provider $FISV.

$COIN opened up their NFT Marketplace to everyone.

$CRM ranked as #1 CRM provider by IDC for 9th year in a row.

$DOCU hires Steve Shute, a former SAP leader with over 25 years of experience to help DocuSign scale beyond e-signatures; grow Agreement Cloud.

$PATH announced integration with $CRM's MuleSoft.

$PLTR won a $90m 5-year contract with HHS.

$ROKU announced new shoppable ad experiences in OneView, new collaboration with $MSFT + new Roku Originals and Roku Brand Studio programs.

$S completed an acquisition of Attivo Networks, a leading identity security provider.

$SQ and $RAD partnered to provide Afterpay's BNPL for everyday items.
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Brief news 29/4/22
$AAPL reported earnings, here visualized:

$AFRM Miva, an e-commerce software and service provider for SMBs announced a partnership to help online sellers increase sales and accommodate growing consumer demand.

$ABNB's CEO Brian Chesky sent a letter to his employees, saying they can work remotely forever, as long as they want to.

$AMZN reported earnings, here visualized: (hard hit on EBITDA, though the loss on Rivian is took into consideration in that chart)

$DDOG launched application security monitoring (ASM) to break down silos between security and operations teams.

$DOCU CommBank, an Australian bank, is looking into possibilities of making DocuSign the only way to deliver and sign commercial lending documents after exceeding a 90% adoption target at the end of last year.

$DUOL's viral TikTok account earned it a "Social Marketer of the year" award from Ad Age.

$NET and $MSFT develop a built-in VPN for Microsoft Edge - powered by Cloudflare.

$NFLX reportedly laying off seasoned journalists and writers working for its entertainment site Tudum. Netflix also seen cancelling new seasons of some shows that likely didn't do too well.

$NVDA GeForce Now app added a native support for Apple M1 Macs, Lost Ark into its game offering.

$PYPL reportedly closing its San Francisco office which is housing its Xoom business unit.

$ROKU reported earnings, here visualized:

$SPOT declines to renew Obama's podcast contract, Obama reportledly in talks with Audible, iHeartMedia for the deal.

$SE up on the news of Sea Group winning a digital bank license in Malaysia.

$TEAM reported earnings, here visualized:

$TTD Advertisers and Agencies, including Omnicom, to activate audience-based campaigns directly from InfoSum data clean rooms using first-party data via Unified ID 2.0
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Hot seats update
$PYPL off of my "hot seat"

Okay earnings, loved Venmo and BNPL growth in particular. In addition to 256% YoY growth of BNPL installments, PayPal explicitly mentioned $ABNB $DASH among my holdings, so I expect those to be pretty strong.

$DOCU and $ZM left on hot seats.

$DOCU - I'm looking for progress on Agreement Cloud and will be comparing their performance to $ADBE's Document Cloud

$ZM - I'm seeking visibility into how Zoom Phone is doing, how they are competing with Teams and Meet as I'm seeing Microsoft leveraging Teams into Win 11 and in 365 packages and Google too pushing their Google Meet inside Google office tools package with a pretty good results of Google Chat lately too in the App Store.
Sam's portfolio review
Hello CommonStock, I saw multiple posts from my fellow colleagues sharing their portfolios, explaining their intent and seeking feedback from the community. I believe this is a great place to share knowledge and learn, we all have something to gain one from another, so I thought it'd be a great idea to do my iteration of this concept.

Here's my portfolio:

To put things into a perspective, I'm 19yo student whose mission is to invest in a great tech businesses that change our life for the better.

My portfolio is built around these themes:

  • 5G
  • AI
  • AR/VR
  • Blockchain Technology
  • Cloud Computing
  • Cybersecurity
  • Creativity
  • Digital Commerce
  • Digital Advertising
  • Digital Education
  • Fintech
  • Gaming
  • Gig Economy
  • Internet of Things
  • Modern Enterprise
  • Robotics
  • Renewable Energy
  • Streaming
  • Semiconductors
  • Telehealth

My portfolio therefore consists of mainly high growth, disruptive technology companies. A simple reason why is that I know technologies the best from all sectors and I believe its a very diverse approach in order to catch most of our civilized world progress as those technologies pretty much are used across sectors, whether we talk agriculture, mining, etc. The goal of the portfolio is to invest in great companies who I can let run for years to come which can eventually secure me an earlier retirement 😃

I like to invest in:
  • software companies primarily with an expected growth of greater than 15% over a few years out, so basically there's a greater chance they can outperform the market even without a multiple expansion
  • companies with a great culture and great ratings from employees across Glassdoor/Comparably
  • founder-led mission driven companies with significant insider ownership
  • companies producing FCF or at least those who I believe will produce FCFs in the future
  • leaders in their respective sectors (so the best of bread)

It's worth mentioning that I plan to make some changes to my portfolio soon, so this isn't a final look, and so to make this clear, I plan to:


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'm looking forward to hear your thoughts, suggestions and answer your questions, if there are any 😃
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Hot seats
As Q1 earnings arrive, I have my set of holdings I'll cut or will be looking to cut depending on the performance and results posted by those... I was thinking about a bit of a consolidation in my corporate enterprise allocation, and decided to:


There seems to be nothing wrong with those names, I just thought like there's a pretty substantial overlap between them and so I decided to cut some and strengthen those other names.

And then on the other hand I have $DOCU -- I'll be really closely watching the execution of Agreement Cloud, as this is a substantial part of my thesis and they seem to have some problems there for a couple of quarters already... If I'll see just another underperformance on that part I'll be selling for $ADBE or one of the other names I want to add to my portfolio but yet didn't buy any.

Secondly, there's $ZM. Still a leader in this market, but I'm seeing some evolution of competitors in this pretty competitive space, and so I'll be closely watching what they have to say about the competition and put their numbers into a perspective. Will decide then what to do.

Notably, I'll be looking to listen to $OKTA's earnings call to see the effects of their breach and how they answer questions on their reaction to the fact.
Brief news 14/4/22
$AFRM published a research that shows a major generational division when it comes to American's response to inflation.

  • 73% of GenZ/Mills and 66% of US consumers in total are concerned that rising costs will prevent them from being able to pay for the things and experiences they want to achieve this year
  • The highest amount (38%) to prioritize purchases for the home
  • When it comes to deprioritization, 53% to spend loss on restaurants, 47% on entertainment and 34% on beauty
  • 53% of GenZ/Mills to spend less this year in reaction to rising costs
  • 81% of GenX/Boomers to spend the same or more this year
  • As a result of rising costs, about 23% GenX/Boomers are likely to use a "BNPL" option like Affirm over the next month, even larger amount - 41% in GenZ/Mills demographics

$AAPL announced that their suppliers more than doubled their use of clean energy over the last year, with over 10 gigawatts operational today out of nearly 16 gigawatts in total commitments in the coming years. This way, they avoided 13,9M metric tons of carbon emissions last year. Today, 213 of Apple's manufacturing partners have pledged to power all Apple production with renewables across 25 countries, and made joint investments into renewable projects all around the world, including 500MWs of solar and other renewables in China and Japan. In Europe, 11 suppliers made such a commitments bringing the impact to 25 European countries, for example in Austria, Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark. In the US, they made investments into solar plant in Texas and made commitments with companies such as DuPont and Micron. These commitments should enable Apple to become carbon neutral across their whole supply chain as of 2030. As a reminder, their global operations are carbon neutral since 2020.

$AMZN launched their first Amazon Kids+ original mobile games.

$AMPL appointed their first Chief Customer Officer - Lambert Walsh, who previously worked for 6 years at DocuSign $DOCU.

$DDOG expanded their Watchdog AI Engine with 2 new capabilities - Log Anomaly Detection and Root Cause Analysis.

$ENPH expanded Battery Storage offerings in Iowa.

$GOOGL published some 2021 Google Cloud stats - stating managed cloud services grew at a 73% CAGR + Google Cloud partners globally averaged an 86% ROI for their Google Cloud business.

$NVDA added new games to their GeForce NOW, notably Need for Speed HEAT and Plants vs. Zombies Garden Warfare 2.

$PLTR set to unveil a new suite of products available withing the Apollo platform on Apollo Demo Day on April 27th.

$SPOT has renamed their live listening feature to Spotify Live, says Spotify Live can now be found both as a stand-alone app and as a livestream function inside the Spotify app.
Q2 Earnings season kicking off
So, just a few weeks ago there were last companies reporting their Q1 results and here we are with Q2 kicking off, for me in about a week with $NFLX reporting its results on Tuesday 19th... I hope to see some great numbers this season, it's about time!

Also, I'm very interested in $DOCU results and will closely watch the execution of their Agreement Cloud since I saw some weakness in that for the past few quarters, so this will be decisive for me. There's no doubt they do well in e-Signtature, but Agreement Cloud is a significant part of my thesis too. Otherwise, I may reallocate my money into $ADBE and a few other positions that I want to either initiate or complete 👀
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Down 68%, Is DocuSign Cheap?
Revisited $DOCU and touched on why its net dollar retention (NDR) of 119% and Rule of 40 score of 47 as of Q4 2021 make it look attractive.

DocuSign still needs to show proof of building out its broader Agreement Cloud, so this NDR will be vital to watch going forward.

Meanwhile, its Rule of 40 score trended down slightly but is still impressive -- highlighting a good blend between FCF margin and continued growth.

3 Cheap, Sold-off Growth Stocks
I wrote about $PINS, $ZM, and $DOCU recently and tried to show why their Net Promoter Scores and reasonably priced growth make them attractive long-term options.


Pinterest's ARPU remains my core focus -- especially internationally.

Zoom's FCF generation and strengthening suite of products look too cheap at 25x FCF.

DocuSign still needs to show growth beyond e-sigs, but Net Retention of 119% works for now.
I found that bit about Comparably’s NPS rating on Pinterest interesting. If >30 is considered excellent and they sit at 50, that’s pretty remarkable! What makes Pinterest more shareable and referable than other social media platforms, do you think?
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