Top Losers Today
My July Returns Are In!... And They're... Good?
I'm still getting annihilated in both of my portfolios but less annihilated than a month ago!
In June, I opened zero new positions. I added to $MKL twice, $TYL twice, $MCD twice, $WM twice, and $IIPR. Relatively quiet month. I also added to $NVDA, $BIPC, $AMT, $MPW, $O, $IIPR, $NLCP, and $TSM via DRIP. I exited zero positions.
My retirement portfolio was up 13.09% in July. However, I'm still down 35.84% YTD and my month-by-month YTD is as bad as growth investor's portfolio returns could look.
Shoutout to my best performing retirement positions in 2022 so far:
And a look at my best retirement performing positions in July:
My top 10 positions continue to make up ~33% of my portfolio. $MELI's great July brings to back to the top spot followed by $AAPL, $AMZN, $F, $GOOGL, $SHOP, little known and rarely mentioned $NVEE, $COST, my baby $SWAV, and $SIVB.
Looking forward to August, I'm still considering opening a new position in either $TTD, $TWLO $SONO, $NET, $NTDOY, and after this recent fall, $ROKU.
In June, I only added to $ATZAF. No positions in this brokerage pay a dividend so there was no DRIP and I did not exit any positions.
Similar to my retirement portfolio, my taxable was up 13.67% in July but is still down 36.60% YTD and the month-by-month is also still abysmal.
Shoutout to my best performing taxable positions in 2022 so far:
- $TMDX with a 110.75% return YTD
- $MSP with a 39.49% return YTD - RIP as is had such a great return because it was acquired.
- $SILK with a 8.10% return YD
And a look at my best performing taxable positions in July:
My top 10 positions continue to make up ~90% of my portfolio as I only have 14 positions in this brokerage. The top 10 remains basically the same with $SNOW, $TMDX, $ATZAF, $SILK, $DT, $LMND, $NCNO, $CPNG, $BIGC, and $OM. Those other 4 positions must be truly awful performers (indeed they are).
Looking forward, I'm undecided which position to add my monthly DCA to. Leaning towards $DT or buying the dip on $OM.
I've begun putting some money into Fundrise, Landa, and StartEngine. It's too little to even bother with showing returns and a lot of the stuff is illiquid but I wanted to at least catalog what I'm investing in.
I haven't really dove into yet. I've just been dumping money into it since April and letting them allocate into their Flagship Real Estate Fund. I'll look at their other portfolio options when I get some extra time.
I've been putting a very small amount of money into Landa each month since April just to play around. I've bought shares in 5 properties and seen some miniscule dividends. It's an interesting foray into real estate and I will probably continue adding to it. The current list of properties I have shares in are:
- 1394 Oakview (GA)
- 4474 Highwood (GA)
- 729 Winter (GA)
- 8662 Ashley (GA)
- 24 Ditmars (NY)
This is probably my favorite of the 3 and also the most risky by far. StartEngine allows angel investing in non-public companies. The odds of investments going to zero must be incredibly high while the odds of them ever making it to a publicly traded company incredibly low. That's why StartEngine will remain a very small portion of my portfolio.
I currently am invested in:
- 3i Tech - "3i Tech Works builds engagement solutions to increase customer loyalty and drive revenue for small and medium-sized businesses. Our integrated platform aims to even the playing field for brick-and-mortar retailers and restaurants by providing them the best digital tools to connect and engage with mobile customers."
- Future Cardia - "We are Future Cardia (Oracle Health, Inc.) - Bringing you a tiny insertable cardiac monitor for a long-term heart failure monitoring solution to disrupt the $5B market and to set the stage for Connected Implants. Our approach is a simple 2-minute office procedure that brings simplicity, accuracy, high compliance for long-term monitoring, and existing insurance coverage."
I having approved but not yet finalized investments in:
- SapientX - "We have created a voice assistant powered by AI (artificial intelligence) that can interact with users as if it were their best friend. Today, we are working with companies that make cars, appliances, smart home devices and vending machines to voice-enable a new generation of products."
- POPS! Diabetes Care - "We have developed and commercialized a revolutionary AI self-care platform for diabetes management. Our mission is for people to take ownership of their diabetes through simple technology, and we have people in all 50 states and Australia using Pops."
- Kari Gran - "Kari Gran Skincare is a pioneer in the rapidly-growing clean beauty business, headed by passionate female founders disrupting the category with differentiated products targeting an underserved market; women 40+ experiencing dry skin due to menopause. We know the stresses and challenges that come with dry skin, but more importantly, we also know the solution."
I also have an approved but not yet finalized investment in a signed edition Banksy artwork, Laugh Now.
View 1 more comment
What are your strategy differences between your retirement and taxable accounts?
$TMDX just reached a new 52 week high
View 2 more comments
This one is performing better than most growth stocks it seems. One of my few growth names still up over the year or so
Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. ($INSP) - Reporting Tuesday (5/3) afternoon
"Inspire Medical Systems, Inc., a medical technology company, focuses on the development and commercialization of minimally invasive solutions for patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in the United States and internationally."
I'm am extremely bullish on this company. They more than doubled their revenue in 2021 (such a big jump partially due to COVID. From 2019, CAGR has been ~69% (nice)) and are expanding their OSA solution to therapy centers rapidly.
Here's what I'm looking for this afternoon.
- Keep that revenue engine revving. Inspire is facing really tough comps. >50% revenue growth would be great.
- European adoption of the procedure accelerating. I'm hoping for revenue growth in Europe >40%.
- They made a big move towards being FCF positive in 2021. They have a strong balance sheet but I'd like to see them be able to fully fund themselves from operations.
- Management guided for 52-56 new therapy centers each quarter this year. Meet or beat that.
- Gross profit margins are already pretty great, coming in at 85.7% in 2021. Can we get 86% in 2022?
- R&D expenses >20% of revenue would tickle my fancy.
Really excited for the future of this company.
Total cost basis: 32nd highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.49 years
Number of purchases since: 1
Annualized return: (48.0%)
Annualized $SPY return: (21.9%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (36.9%)
TransMedics Group, Inc. ($TMDX) - Reporting Tuesday (5/3) afternoon
This was one of my biotech/health care moonshots. For those who don't know, TransMedics has developed a new way to transport donor organs, the aptly named Organ Care System (OCS). Instead of storing and transporting donor organs in an ice chest, OCS is a system that allow perfusing the blood of the donor through the organs which keeps the organ viable for longer periods of time.
They are an early-stage company, although they are generating revenue. They recently moved one step closer to bringing its OCS Heart System to market.(https://commonstock.com/post/78590f76-d5cd-4d0d-91a5-ec9a4b89f965).
Here's what I'm looking for this afternoon.
- Management is guiding for $52MM in FY revenue at the midpoint. Show me a good start towards beating that.
- Gross profit margins have been improving year-by-year (12% to 28%to 44% to 59% to 65% to 70% last year). Keep moving in that direction. >73% would be lovely).
Honestly, that's about it. I'm just watching for press releases to see where their studies are at and what's the status with FDA approval. After that occurs, I'll be watching for OCS adoption by hospitals.
Total cost basis: 81st highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 1.16 years
Number of purchases since: 1
Annualized return: (27.2%)
Annualized $SPY return: 4.1%
Annualized $QQQ return: (0.5%)
DermTech, Inc. ($DMTK) - Reporting Tuesday (5/3) afternoon
This one befuddles me. The technology is seemingly groundbreaking. Their Pigmented Lesion Assay (PLA) test increases melanoma testing accuracy to 90-95% (from 65-85% on existing testing methods) and decreases the chance of missing melanoma from 15-17% to 1%. ONE PERCENT. How have they not gotten every single insurance company onboard? Are you thinking PLA is more expensive than a biopsy? It's not. Per a study published in JAMA Dermatology, the PLA is a cost-savings of $447 ($500 vs $947 for a biopsy). It's also just a patch you put on the mole instead of, you know, slicing a section of skin out for a biopsy. I don't understand. Is it a failure of management to attain widespread adoption? I don't know what else it could be.
Here's what I'm looking for:
- Revenue growth. Substantial revenue growth. Please, for the love of all that is holy, show me substantial revenue growth.
- Billable samples were up 86% in 2021 over 2020 but that masks the fact that Q4 and Q3 were basically flat (11,750 in Q2, 11,720 in Q3, 11,780 in Q4). Q1 2022 needs to show a resumption in growth.
- They went from $16.1MM in sales and marketing expenses in 2020 to $37.6MM in 2021. Keep pumping cash in in that expense. Get the word out. Get insurance carriers onboard.
Total cost basis: 75th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 1.24 years
Number of purchases since: 1
Annualized return: (76.1%)
Annualized $SPY return: 3.5%
Annualized $QQQ return: (3.9%)
The Coming Week in Earnings
Woooo boy, this week will be fun for my portfolio.
- $BIGC^ (On my Sell Watchlist)
- $EXPI^ (On my Buy Watchlist)
- $FSLY^ (On my Sell Watchlist)
Anything with a ^ indicates I read the 8-K and 10-Q/10-K and track their financials along with KPIs on a spreadsheet I have.
So basically, this will be me next week...
$TMDX Moves One Step Closer to OCS Heart System Approval
I'm not smart enough to fully understand the impacts of this but my wife, who is a surgical resident doctor and has published several papers, says this is pretty good news. I'm down ~30% on my $TMDX position but still remain quite bullish on their tech and long-term results.
An ongoing case study: TransMedics $TMDX
The elevator pitch:
A medical device company that is actively disrupting the status quo whereby their technology can become the new industry standard. As adoption increases they are poised to operate a razor & blade business in a concentrated end market with limited competition. According to their latest 10-K "we are aware of only two other companies providing warm perfusion systems, OrganOx Limited and XVIVO Perfusion AB"
Problem being solved:
Transporting organs set for transplantation is a difficult, error prone process that results in wasted organs and suboptimal patient outcomes post transplant. The current system is basically just placing an organ into a yeti cooler with ice and sending it on it's way. This places a countdown timer on the organ which in turn limits the total distance the organ can travel. With this current system it's may not be possible to transport an organ from New York to California.
Create a novel technology that circulates blood through the organ to keep it alive and functioning outside the human body.
Partner with top tier hospitals to legitimize the technology in order to have the strongest sales pitch when approach tier 2 and tier 3 hospitals. In 2020 Mass General Hospital was ~14% of their revenue which is a really great sign. Mass General is regarded as a 'teaching hospital' that is associated with Harvard and consistently ranked among the top 5 hospitals in the United States. Having the best and brightest involved with the product is what will bring this product from the nascent stages of commercialization to a new industry standard.
- A Mass General study on patient outcomes after they received an organ that was transported via Transmedic's device.
The company relies on FDA approval before hospitals can begin to use the product, without FDA approval the product may have a scrappage value of zero. Hospitals also need to see a favorable ROI in order to adopt Transmedics products, if there is no material difference in patient outcomes then there is little reason to train staff and adopt a more expensive solution.
An investors outlook:
This is an early stage company that seems like something out of science fiction but it's a solution to a very real problem. It's a high beta way to get exposure to the health care sector but IF the product lives up to it's promise then we have a clear path to a great business. In my opinion the monetary cost of the devices is the lowest hurdle any investor should be concerned about: there is a large enough pool of money between insurance companies, hospitals, Medicare, Medicaid, etc.
Investors should be excited about the market dynamics. In the US 55 of the organ centers have an estimated 70% market share & Transmedics faces little competition. This is a razor & blade business where they sell the devices to hospitals (the razor) & a consumable solution that flows through the organ itself (the blade). This is a market with extremely high switching costs & barriers to entry.
In sum, you have 'a new operating system' for organ transportation, a well capitalized buyer for the product, and favorable industry dynamics. Fund flows can come from biotech, ESG funds, healthcare funds, and technology funds. It's certainly one of the best stories in the market today. Investors need to watch press releases as the KPI's we need to see are new hospital sign ups & increased usage among existing hospitals. It would be a major red flag if a hospital did a trial with the product but decided not to continue usage.
View 3 more comments
Probably one of the most interesting things I have read so far this year. What a product! Thanks for sharing this information.
Portfolio as of Today and Plan Going Forward
Since I can't get my brokerage to sync correctly, I'm just posting my portfolio as of today. Very nice day, today, as of this writing. Up about 5.26% I'm still down from highs of early February.
- $PINS - 9.9% - hodl in the puke traded a little to reduce basis
- $SKLZ - 7.3% - added bigtime in the puke
- $PLTR - 6.4% - added bigtime in the puke
- $FSLY - 5.9% - re-entered in the puke, bad timing, about even today.
- $TMDX - 5.7% - reduced just before puke and regret it. Long.
- $ADYEY - 5.0% - hodl
- $ONDS - 5.0% - added bigtime in the puke
- $FSRV - 4.8% - reduced a little at beginning of puke, and regret, trying to add under basis
- $DMTK - 4.7% - added 1/3 in puke just above basis.
- $SE (have Mar 2023 75 Calls)- 4.7%
- $GHVI - 3.6% - added too early, in puke.
- $CURI - 3.5% - added aggressively in puke. Have puts I hope I get!
- $U - 3.2% - got back in this just before puke and doubled in puke. I over 2x'd this position last year. (70's -> 160). Fun to see at reasonable price again!
- $ZYXI - 2.7% - new position during puke!
- $MWK - 2.7% - new position during puke!
- $JMIA - 2.4% - new position during puke! AWFUL timing, green position.
- $UPST - 2.4% - new position during puke! AWFUL timing, red position.
- $OZON - 2.2% - hodl
- $CCIV - 2.2% - new position during puke! Added on Friday via Puts.
- $PRCH - 2.0% - added to position during puke. Great timing.
- $LFMD - 1.9% - hodl, green position as of today.
- $FTOC - 1.9% - added in puke.
- $TSIA - 1.5% - added in puke.
- $SFTW - 1.4% - added in puke
- $IPOE - 1.3% - hodl
- $APPH - 1.2% - added back in the puke. Great timing at $18
- $MGNI - 1.1% - re-entered in the puke! Great timing at $37
- $FSR - 0.9% - I don't know why I bought this. Selling calls on it LOL.
- $SBG - 0.8% - reduced in the puke to buy other stonks. Bad deal.
- $IPOF (have Dec 17 2021 7.5 Calls) - 0.8% - traded a little to reduce basis in puke, I think this is low risk here.
- $TBA - 0.5% - just bought this last week. I like the IronSource deal.
- $VRM (have Jan 20 2023 30/25 Calls) - 0.5% - I reduced before earnings and then after hours when awful earnings came through. I traded mostly at profit, but these calls are red.
I am holding these options which I sold earlier, expiring on Friday (they are all profitable as of today):
- $SKLZ Mar 19 2021 30 Put (ok to increase position here)
- $FSR Mar 19 2021 25 Call (ok to lose position)
- $U Mar 19 2021 105 Put (ok to increase position here)
- $LFMD Mar 19 2021 20 Put (ok to increase position here)
- $CURI Mar 19 2021 17.5 Put (ok to increase position here)
- I added $FSRV, $CCIV (was happily put stock at $28.50 on Friday), $MWK
- I exited my small $LOTS position today at an 8% loss, I just don't have enough conviction in it when I go to the site, haha, despite having some pretty good numbers on paper. I was sucked in because it seemed so beaten down. Not sure why anyone would go with them over $CVNA or $VRM. I guarantee it goes straight up from here :)--you are welcome.
I am bullish in 2021, especially on these holdings. I plan to reduce many of my lower conviction holdings in the short/medium term. I am not planning to hold all of my SPACs over the longterm. I think that many of these names will further rally from where we are. There is just so much money in the system and increasing, and the selling on many of the quality names I've entered were very extreme IMHO. I did most of my buying during the puke in late Feb, early march. I didn't time much perfecty, but it looks like I was approximately correct in being a net buyer.
Many of you that know me well, know that I have a business in the Information Security space. I intend to focus on that, as I've been growing the team, and it's not just me by myself anymore. I sincerely hope commonstock can get the automated tracking down. I don't want to spend any time updating this.
I will update probably one more time when my Looooooong portfolio is done. It is likely going to be aligned with my top positions, 3% and greater. But, I change my mind a lot!
Healthcare/Medtech Stocks I am Excited About
The healthcare industry is one that is clearly outdated, and from insurance to technology, it is in massive need of disruption. Some companies I am excited about:
$TDOC - telehealth and chronic condition monitoring services
$NNOX - advanced, cheaper, more effective x-ray machines
$LGVW - portable, handheld ultrasound device
$TMDX - machines with the capability to transport live organs
$CLOV - innovative, AI-backed insurance offering for seniors
$ARKG - Ark ETF covering gene-editing, CRISPR, and other themes
Two that I have been watching, but do not own shares of:
What are your thoughts on these companies, and what companies am I missing? I plan to post a longer thread either here or on Twitter sometime soon about why I believe these companies in particular are so disruptive.
View 3 more comments
Commonstock is a social network that amplifies the knowledge of the best investors, verified by actual track records for signal over noise. Community members can link their existing brokerage accounts and share their real time portfolio, performance and trades (by percent only, dollar amounts never shared). Commonstock is not a brokerage, but a social layer on top of existing brokerages helping to create more engaged and informed investors.