Steve Matt's avatar
$1.2m follower assets
1 of 2
My $PUBM trades
Transaction Journal Entry:
  • Tempted to start a position in $TTD but would rather add here first.
  • Strong Q1 revenue to start the year although margins need to be watched.
  • NRR remains very strong at 140%.
  • Ad impressions up 76% YoY to 32.6T.
  • CTV/OTT publishers up 120% YoY as they build out that arm.
  • A profitable growth company is worth adding shares to.

Metrics I track on each buy:
P/S - 4.93
Forward P/S - 3.36
PSG - 0.11
P/FCF - 18
Samuel Meciar's avatar
$7.7m follower assets
Portfolio changes - update 9
Hello friends, today I moved further with my portfolio consolidation process.

  • I sold out of $S, there's nothing specific wrong there, but I stay stunned by just how Microsoft's position throughout all kinds of enterprise software is strong. Crowdstrike, Microsoft and SentinelOne usually score the best in all sorts of 3rd party research, therefore it makes sense for me to consolidate.

SentinelOne is great, but we are entering a very unkeen environment for companies heavily spending instead of bringing cash flows, which I'm fine with, but when looking at the optionality, profitability and growth, I'm very much fine with $MSFT here. Many maybe don't know, but $MSFT is growing its CyberSec division by 50%, or at least did YoY, pulling about $15B in sales last year, which is just INSANE! So, from now on my coverage of CyberSec will be through $GOOGL (soon to likely buy $MNDT), $NET $DDOG $MSFT $ZS and $SNOW.

  • I also sold a position in $SE as I'm beginning to be very concerned about their tempo of cash burn (about $1,9B in Q4 and additional $1,6B in Q1) despite management's encouraging comments regarding coming profitability. So for now, no $SE for me. $MELI in this condition looks like a better R/R now to me.
  • I added significantly to my $MSFT position, should be visible by tomorrow. I also added to my other favorites such as $AAPL $TTD $TSLA and $NVDA.
post mediapost media
I like the stable growth companies with a long track record of success. So I’m definitely with you on the $GOOG, $MSFT, and $NVDA. Analyzing the newer companies is out of my wheelhouse. I like the valuation of Microsoft and Google especially, but bought Nvidia for both kids’ custodial accounts. Personally, I don’t think there are two better companies on the planet than Google and Microsoft to own. When my safety of principle is considered. Especially after they were the sole two companies standing after last weeks research. Impressive.
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Sachiv's avatar
$421.1k follower assets
Adtech legislation in progress
Below is a link to NY Posts article on adtech scrutiny of companies like $GOOG $GOOGL. In short, if you participate in buying and selling ads, AND have them displayed on your own properties on which you get user data, this law will force a breakup of some parts of that business.

⬆️ for $TTD $PUBM $MGNI and $ATY, although I’m only long $TTD

⬇️ for $GOOG and maybe $AMZN at some point???

FYI WSJ also has an article about this, but it’s behind a paywall.

$TTD Prediction via TA
Earnings report was great - TA is still very weak.

$TTD should trade under $45.00 soon too.
Prediction:
$TTD will be under $45/share on 6/17/2022
11 Votes
Just to be consistent I went with disagree with this one too. But this one is a little more emotional for me since I’ve held TTD for years. It would be tough for me to sell here because I’d actually still incur capital gains tax. Emotionally, a slide to $45 would continue to hurt a lot. Man, so much emotion in investing! I’m doing something wrong! Haha
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Sachiv's avatar
$421.1k follower assets
Cash generation
What big opportunities will reveal themself in the next 3-6 months- when I say big, I mean where you are willing to put in 10% of your entire investable amount within a short period, and don’t mind waiting out for an economic cycle to play out and multiples to expand like they did in 2020-2021.

I’m watching for drops in couple of companies across multiple sectors and growth rates. Names include $TXN $SIVB $TSLA $NVDA $TTD, just to name a few. Some have stable returns and yields, some are high growth with income, and some have strong relationships that enable high beta growth vs the economy and should be invested when things look bleakest. I have added some stakes last weak, but I don’t believe things look quite so bad just yet…

I don’t like watching too many names. I would say 10-15 names are sufficient if you know them (and the industry) well, and have an updated checklist on each of them and their competition.

I’m keeping a 30-35% cash position while waiting…

Thoughts?

PS - I should add this post is an evolution of my thinking from my learnings by losing a LOT of money by not listening to many many amazing posters on fintwit and various substacks. Rather than be 100% buy and hold, it would be wise to CONSIDER a part of both the speculative(eg biotech) and low/medium quality (eg high cash burn, high SBC cos) positions to be subject to market cycles, and act accordingly… thoughts and criticisms always welcome!
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6 Additions for This Week
Through my regular dollar-cost averaging in my $HOOD account on Monday and my Stash account Thursday, I added to the following stocks: $TTD, $SHOP, $MELI, $U, $UPST, and $SE.

These may be my single highest conviction stocks and make up a portion of my core 34 holdings.

Trade Desk will benefit from the steady shift to connected TV, alongside $ROKU.

Shopify, MercadoLibre, and Sea are fascinating at these prices and offer increasingly strong optionality as time goes on, it seems -- not to mention they dominate their niches already.

Unity faced a significant issue regarding its advertising, but it appears to be a one-off event. I cannot like this company's optionality more.

Upstart's sell-off completely confuses me. While risks remain, the risk/reward potential for the company has become far too interesting.

tl:dr

These are six great businesses with high growth optionality for the long term, now trading at significant discounts.

I am also planning to add to one of my "higher-risk" core holdings Monday -- who would you all pick?
Which riskier stock should I buy Monday?
12%$TDOC
32%$SOFI
8%$GLBE
48%$RBLX
25 VotesPoll ended on: 05/16/22
@joryko what a great list you have here. I’ve purely been technicals, but want to add fundamentals into my game. Any suggestions on good reading material to start off? Thanks.
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Neil's avatar
$18.2m follower assets
Streaming wars
The more the merrier for the likes of $ROKU and $TTD

Ad supported tiers will be a common thing across all big streaming giants and these two will benefit from it greatly (so will the consumer).
I'm curious to see how the allocation of spending will break out between these two same companies.

Like $NFLX, for example, already has historical ties to $ROKU, but $TTD seems like quite a force in the CTV space of late as well.

Does Roku's ties to the streaming industry give it a leg up, or does Trade Desk's massive customer base make it more interesting?
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Jeff Sanders's avatar
$1.5m follower assets
My Portfolio: Rebalancing and De-Risking
Howdy all! After going back and forth on this and with most of what I owned already reporting ER, I have decided to exit the following positions: $U, $UPST, $NET, $SOFI. The reason is based on what I view as high risk, slowing growth, and re-evaluating what I want to own in this current environment focusing on FCF and profitability (current and future). It was tough to take these massive losses as I bought them way too high and rather use that capital on other more higher conviction and/or more companies that fit my criteria and can weather this current inflation storm. I will still have these 4 companies on my watch list (especially $SOFI and $NET), as I think in time will re-evaluate when the time is right. Cash position is now at 10% which gives me flexibility in adding to something like $ABNB and $TTD. Still want to ensure my Cash position does not drop below 6% so when we hit bottom will have sufficient funds to re-deploy (plan on adding to this each paycheck). Open to all suggestions on approach and hope this helps someone who maybe in a similar position. Cheers!
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Sachiv's avatar
$421.1k follower assets
Closed positions, added to existing strong ones
Sold slow growth $FVRR and $U at major losses. Yes I’m a “long term” investor but that doesn’t mean I put up with slow growth…and I also admit that I overpaid which created the magnitude of these losses.

(Side note (to self): don’t get carried away with investing services recommendations amidst euphoria - high growth cos need to prove resilience. Keep strict limits to exposure or move out when they shoot 60-70% above their 200dma!)

Added $ABNB and $TTD as they continue to show resilience and positive outlook as leaders in their categories with strong leadership

Watching if $TSLA and $NVDA fall another 8-10%…would love to add those lower. Also mentioned $TXN recently. Seems like a good “low beta anchor”
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