Down 86%, I'm broke
Hi all, I am new to commonstock and have joined the platform to get some quality advice.

To tell you about my full investing experience: I started investing in June 2020 with around 100k in savings. Being a twitter user I went for advice there. I rapidly made big gains and my portfolio went to 180k in september. Back then I started taking debt to invest, I could borrow an extra 150k. Between september and february my portfolio was obviously in the green every day, I quit my job, started going to expensive restaurants, invited my girlfriend on ski trip in the best hotels. The sky was literally the limit. Mid february came the first market pullback, something completely new to me... however after some margin calls I was able to get through june 21 with a portfolio worth 400k minus 123k in debt. Over the summer I remained invested in the high flying tech names $ZS $CRWD $FSLY $UPST $SOFI $TSLA $LSPD $SE and so on I guess you know the music too. To keep a long story short and not to bother you too much, my portfolio is now down 86% from its peak and I am hugely indebted... I got margin call after margin call, my mortgage application got rejected and I still have 100k to pay back. I am basically broke as even if I sell all I still have today I cannot even pay my debt back. And I don't even talk you about the $SOFI shares I added on margin before its earnings release... All of this to say I really don't know what to do, I just want to liquidate my whole portfolio and get back to March 2020 where I did not know anything about the stock market and I still had my job. So basically I don't expect a lot from commonstock but would be grateful to hear your thoughts. Thanks for reading till the end. #bullsneverdie
Head up man. LEARN from your experiences and you will thank yourself years from now for going through this and being better for it. You came to the right place to learn. Commonstock has an exceptional community and like minded investors with QUALITY conversation. I’d personally avoid Twitter for any investment advice. Without the verified portfolio and trade activity visibility, there’s a lot of a bad actors over there and hardly any accountability. Glad to have you on board here, I’m confident you will really like what you find!
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EOW Update: 05/06/22
No New Adds.

Bought to cover $FSLY at $16.77 - 7% gain. I never hold trades through earnings.

Bought to cover $PUBM at $23.00 - very small gain. Trade got too choppy for me.

Sold Cash Secured Put: May 9th $SPY 395p at $4.05 - up 95% currently.

98% cash.
$FSLY $EXPI $ETSY Earnings: What I'm Looking For
Fastly, Inc. ($FSLY) - Reporting earnings on Wednesday (5/4) afternoon
Fastly is very much on my Sell Watchlist. Anyone who has followed growth stocks the past year knows how poorly Fastly has performed. A repeat of the 22% revenue growth in 2021 is not going to cut it.

Here's what I need to see to keep my invested:

  • >35% revenue growth
  • Gross profit margins back above 55%
  • Net income and FCF much closer to breakeven
  • Customer growth and growth of customers generating >$1MM >25%
  • DBNER >125%
  • NRR >110%

The above doesn't have to happen this quarter but they have to be moving in those directions and achieve them by end of 2022. This thesis is almost broken and my trust in management is almost entirely gone.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 7th highest in my portfolio (ugh)
Time since first buy: 1.87 years
Number of purchases since: 5
Annualized return: (55.8%)
Annualized $SPY return: 11.7%
Annualized $QQQ return: 8.1%

eXp World Holdings, Inc. ($EXPI) - Reporting earnings on Wednesday (5/4) morning
This is one I'm very intrigued. They have a CAGR of 134% since 2016, which is wild. Gross profit margins have also dropped from 13.3% then to 7.8% in 2021. They are FCF positive and actually have a P/FCF of just 9. FCF/S is just 6.2% though. Are they going to be able to maintain this when the housing market goes back to normal? Will the housing market ever go back to normal?

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Can revenue growth keep going?
  • Will net profit margins continue increasing?
  • Will gross profit margins keep getting worse?
  • Will agents keep signing up and will transactions and volume keep flowing?

Current position: N/A - This is on my Buy Watchlist

Etsy, Inc. ($ETSY) - Reporting earnings Wednesday (5/4) afternoon
Oooh, Etsy, quite the polarizing company these days. They went from 30-35% revenue growth to 111% in 2020 but then seemed to retain that pull-forward by returning to 35% growth in 2021 (instead of decelerating below pre-pandemic levels). However, most of that 35% was in Q1 2021 over Q1 2020, which was largely unaffected by COVID. If we were looking at just Q2-Q4 2021 over 2020, growth was actually 19%. I genuinely don't know what we'll see in 2022.

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • What will revenue growth look like. Will management comment on the seller strike that began in Q2?
  • Sellers is growing much faster than buyers (72% vs 18% in 2021). Having a lot more things for sale is only useful if more people are coming in to buy.
  • Very curious where the Habitual Buyers (TTM) number falls in Q1. 8.2MM would be nice.
  • The three KPIs I find most important are Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS), GMS per Active Buyer, and Take Rate. I don't really have any expectations on where these should land. I'll just be very curiously looking them over to get a sense of where Etsy may be heading.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 17th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 1.01 years
Number of purchases since: 2
Annualized return: (55.1%)
Annualized $SPY return: (0.7%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (6.8%)
The Coming Week in Earnings
Woooo boy, this week will be fun for my portfolio.

Monday (5/2)
  • $BIGC^ (On my Sell Watchlist)

Tuesday (5/3)

Wednesday (5/4)

Thursday

Friday

Anything with a ^ indicates I read the 8-K and 10-Q/10-K and track their financials along with KPIs on a spreadsheet I have.

So basically, this will be me next week...
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End of Week Trading Update
Added $TMUS short sell: $132.01 - day trade - bought to cover at $130.62 for 1% gain.
Bought to cover $NIO short sell at $18.00 - 3% gain.
Bought to cover $CCL short sell at $18.00 - 2% gain.
Still holding $FSLY and $PUBM short sells over the weekend.
$FSLY Entry: $18.32
$PUBM Entry: $23.20
88% cash.
Ending this month up 8.58% 🎉
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Hedge Vision's avatar
$103.9m follower assets
Morgan Stanley Sells 84% of its $FSLY Stake
The investment bank bought ~10 million shares in November of 2020 when Fastly was trading in the $60-$80 range, then another 3 million shares last February near $25.

Looks like they're finally throwing in the towel. A 13G form received on April 8 shows that they sold ~11 million shares, or 84% of their stake. Now, Morgan Stanley only owns 2.09 million shares.
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If by Morgan Stanley you mean Nathan Worden, then yes. Morgan Stanley capitulated hard on Fastly.

Will go down as one of my worst holds, ever.
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I think it's time to buy the dip on $FSLY
Considering how poorly the stock has performed, the fundamentals are still good. Investors need to remember that the company is still in its growth stage and is continuing to invest heavily in sales. Right now, people are comfortable with their centralized cloud infrastructure services and many are hesitant about moving onto edge computing.

$FSLY is an edge computing platform that relies a lot on developers for adding utility to it. So far, the company has a couple of well-known clients like $SHOP $CRM $SPOT $NEWR $MSFT $ALK $BKNG $W $LYV and more.

Looking at Fastly's business model, while their revenues are subscription-based, many of their clients upgrade their subscriptions because they need more services to maintain their online presence. That in of itself is a big reason to remain long Fastly.

Furthermore, in their latest earnings report, there were a couple of good metrics:
  • The trailing 12-month net retention rate (NRR LTM) increased to 118% in the fourth quarter from 114% in the third quarter.
  • Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate (DBNER) increased to 121% in the fourth quarter from 118% in the third quarter.
  • Annual Revenue Retention (ARR) was 99.2% in 2021 compared to 99.3% in 2020 showcasing world-class customer retention and revenue expansion.

If you want more clarification on those metrics, read here.

I admit, the company has seen its growth slow drastically. That's mainly why the stock has fallen out of favor with growth investors. During its high-flying days, the stock was trading at nosebleed valuations. Now, the valuations are. showing that $FSLY investors can start to reap a margin of safety.

What are your thoughts on Fastly? Do you think they'll rebound sooner or later?
Bought some $WKME and $AMPL today
Both play in the enterprise digital adoption space that i am long-term bullish

$WKME is an awesome category with an above-average product. Stock is now cheap at ~4X revenue while growing 30%, after today's 20% drop

$AMPL is an awesome product in an awesome category. Stock fell 50% based on a horrible and confusing forecast (how can growth fall from 65% to 35%, when RPOs are healthy). Ironically stock is still around 8-9X revenue. I'm going to assume a bit of sandbagging, but regardless I think this is a great company to own long term and I'm not passing up a 50% discount even if they 'only grow 35%'

The 3 stocks I'm not buying even though they got hammered in the last couple of days post-earnings

$FSLY Always thought their technology was subpar to $NET and $AKAM and customer concentration. Stock is cheap, but i think company still is below-par

$WIX again stock is cheap, but I'm not knowledgeable enough on this market, especially the impact macro has on the SMBs they serve.

$PLTR I don't get this company or stock. Too mystic. I don't think the 'AI' is all that. It's still not cheap. They are making non-strategic investments etc. I don't think highly of their management. Their customer concentration risk is insane (and yes I'm pretty sure I will get tons of push back on this darling stock:)

Now I'm going for a walk to listen to $WKME call and decide if I want to buy more. and yes of course I'll do this on the Fincredible mobile app (which will be released soon). In the meantime you can use browser at www.fincredible.ai for walk + listens)
Upcoming Earnings Calendar (Feb 14th - 18th)
Hey guys! Here's the upcoming earnings calendar! Three of my holdings report next week.

  • $ABNB - The stock has held up pretty well during the market sell-off. The valuation is still high, but with re-openings the company could see a big boost this year.
  • $TTD - They've said Apple IDFA is a non-issue, so their growth should be great. A key indicator of ad spend.
  • $ROKU - The stock is down almost 64% from ATH, but the fundamentals keep improving. I expect great results from the company, with ARPU growing and margins expanding.

If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

MON:


TUE:


WED:


THU:


FRI:
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Ian Gray's avatar
$25.4m follower assets
The Compounders' Cup 2021
The average underperformance of the tournament field is currently (44.9%).

What a difference a year makes!

Last December, I ran a tournament titled "Compounders' Cup 2021" where Twitter users voted on which company would have the best return in 2021.

$SE beat $TDOC in the final

Despite all of the baskets underperforming the market, picking $SEAS the champion was not a horrible choice.

The correct answer out of this field would have been $NETWITH 55 points of outperformance.

Click on the link below to read my recap:
Participants ranked in order of relative performance:

$NET 55.49%
$DAL 33.51%
$RBLX 19.48%
$TSLA 4.65%
$MAR -3.52%
$SHOP -4.26%
$TTD -9.47%
$SE -13.43%
$RCL -20.37%
$APPS -20.83%
$CRWD -26.29%
$LUV -34.05%
$OKTA -34.35%
$PLTR -43.60%
$SQ -46.79%
$OZON -47.55%
$MELI -50.36%
$ROKU -54.90%
$OPEN -57.46%
$FVRR -62.34%
$ZM -64.89%
$LSPD -65.16%
$PINS -68.13%
$FTHM -74.17%
$TDOC -74.68%
$FSLY -77.09%
$SKLZ -80.82%
$NNOX -82.93%
$BFLY -85.43%
$JMIA -91.13%
$ATY -92.15%
$PTON -96.40%
$OTRK -111.73%
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