E-Comm in LatAm
Sept Idea comp - Mercado Libra $MELI
1 - Introduction - Mercado Libra
Marcos Galperin, a Stanford graduate, began imagining
the vision of an e-commerce company in his home country, while still in the
United States and closely watching the beginning of the growth of a company
And with big dreams, he returned to his country Argentina, To found the "Ebey of Latin America.
but very quickly he realized that it was going to be difficult. He needed to
build everything from zero, the customer and supplier relationships, and the
platform, and then he discovered that even this was not enough, and decided to
found Mercado Pago, the financial arm of the company To meet all the customer's needs.
Galperin understood from the very beginning as in the
model of "Sarah Mourning " that to succeed, he must first take care
of a good experience for the users of the platform, and this will bring growth.
The Hierarchy of Engagement - Sarah Tavel (Benchmark).
When the growth continues, decided to add another service to the value chain and
move to level 2 of the model and found Mercado Envíos in 2013, which is the
logistics arm of the company, and by adding a value chain to buyers and
sellers, the users return to the marketplace, the sellers cannot leave it
without experiencing logistical difficulties in sale the product and a lack of
Exposure to a large clientele and thereby losing important revenue. Therefore,
the suppliers do not leave which in turn motivates more customers to join along
with increasing the product offering.
2 - Growth
Meli in the best situation to take benefit from the growth in Latin America.
According to estimates, the fintech sector attributed
to Meli is expected to grow by about 21% per year until 2027, when over 50% of
the citizens do not have a bank account.
While e-commerce is also expected to grow by about 24% per year until 2025.
In addition, Meli growth can be expressed by increasing the market share,
as the company grows, it helps it to grow further
in a market where the winner takes all.
According to Sarah Tabel's model, the more the company
grows, the more it can reach a much larger margin as it grows.
After Meli grows enough and moves to level three of
the model, it will be able to provide more services and additional products on
the platform that will add a lot of extra value to the customer, which will add
to revenue growth.
winner takes all - Sarah Tavel (Benchmark).
3 - MOAT
The more Mercado Libra succeeds in
providing significant value to suppliers, the more difficult it will be for
them to switch to competitors without losing revenue, which will maintain a
wide product offering and add more customers that will prevent them from
leaving. Expanding the logistical advantage, adding financial products, and
continuing to improve the platform.
It will be very difficult for other
companies to take market share from Meli, the more Meli grows, the more
difficult it will be.
In addition with a large logistics system built in 2013,
It will be almost impossible to compete on delivery times and logistics for other companies.
4 - Valuation and summary
Meli is expected to revenue $10B in 2022, which is a
price-to-sales ratio of 4.6, which is the lowest the company has received since
However, with the growing concern of raising the Fed's
interest rate, currently looking at the sales multiplier does not tell us much.
But making a DCF for such a complex company with
several business sectors in parallel and high growth, will also not provide us with
the full picture, and will also harm the quality of the thesis, for better or
And thus, I think it is appropriate to look at the
Gross merchandise value (GMV), the total sales monetary value for merchandise.
In 2022 the GMV will be $34B which is a market value
multiplier of about 1.4, which is the lowest GMV multiplier the company has had
since the IPO.
I took the forecasts about the growth of GMV in Latin
America for e-commerce, with the calculation of the take rate.
Growth in fintech revenues in line with market growth. considering that once the company
is large enough it will be able to reach a 30% margin EBITDA.
And I got these numbers below.
This is an optimistic forecast, Still I didn't include many scenarios that could surprise for good and could significantly increase the market value.
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"Whan The Come To Buy You Wont To"
This is the first time I write here, I hope to add value.
In my most recent Seeking Alpha article I share why I believe that $MELI is a better E-Commerce Story than $AMZN
My August Returns Are In!... And The Good Trend Continues
In August, I opened two new positions in $NET and $PCOR. I added to three times to $MKL , $TYL, $MCD, and $WM as part of my 401k DCA and added to no other positions. Another relatively quiet month. I also added to $JPM, $AAPL, $SBNY, $COST, $O, and $SBUX via DRIP. I exited $MTCH and sold 32% of my shares in $BMBL.
My retirement portfolio was down 2.54% in August but that was less than my benchmark SPY portfolio (down 4.41%) and benchmark QQQ portfolio (4.51%). I'm now down 37.40% YTD compared to my SPY benchmark at 16.52% and QQQ benchmark at 21.72%.
My best performing retirement positions YTD:
My best performing retirement positions in August:
My top 10 positions now make up ~35% of my portfolio. The top 6 remain in the same order of $MELI, $AAPL, $AMZN, $F, $GOOGL, and $SHOP. $SWAV jumped up from 9th to 7th after a great month with great earnings with $NVEE, $SIVB, and $COST rounding out the top 10.
Looking forward to September, I'm contemplating exiting my $SQ position. I'm turned off by Jack's comments and his insistence on $BTC.X being the be all and end all. I don't mind the crypto exposure but the Bitcoin only hardline is narrow-minded in my opinion. If you made me czar, I'd actually just have Square exit their crypto entirely and focus on what they're good at.
I'm also considering exiting $MMM in my 401k and replacing it with one of $ABBV, $BEP, $DEA, $HSY, $MKC, $MTN, $TGT, $TROX, $UNP, or $UPS but I need to research them first before deciding.
In August, I only added to $DT. No positions in this brokerage pay a dividend so there was no DRIP and I did not exit any positions.
My taxable portfolio had a second great bounce back month, up 9.56% after being up 13/67% in July. My benchmark SPY portfolio was down 3.64% and my benchmark QQQ portfolio was down 4.18%. I'm now down 30.15% YTD compared to my SPY benchmark at 14.84% and QQQ benchmark at 21.43%.
My best performing taxable positions YTD:
- $TMDX is up 172% YTD for me. Wowsers.
- $MSP with a 39.49% return YTD - RIP as is had such a great return because it was acquired.
- That's it. None of my other 14 positions are positive. Whomp whomp.
My best performing taxable positions in August:
My top 10 positions continue to make up ~90% of my portfolio as I only have 14 positions in this brokerage. The top 10 remains basically the same with $SNOW, $TMDX, $ATZAF, $SILK, $DT, $LMND, $NCNO, $CPNG, $OM, and $BIGC.
Looking forward to September, I already added to $ATZAF as my monthly add. I don't expect to make any other moves but we shall see.
Digital sales will drive growth for Mercado Libre $MELI
Mercado Libre is Latin America’s biggest ecommerce player by far, but competition from local players is heating up. This will force the regional giant to ramp up investments to maintain—and grow—market share.
Mercado Libre continues to benefit from consumers’ embrace of ecommerce in Latin America. Digital buyers are diversifying their purchases across a wider range of product categories on the platform—chiefly consumer packaged goods (CPG) and groceries, per Mercado Libre’s Q1 2022 earnings call.
- We forecast its regional ecommerce business to grow by 23.0% to just under $35 billion in 2022. While still healthy by all accounts—outpacing the regional average by more than 4 percentage points—it is less than half of the company’s 2020 pandemic-induced boom of 49.5%.
- Despite a deceleration in growth, Mercado Libre is on track to surpass more than $40 billion in 2023. That’s nearly double the amount consumers spent with the retailer in 2020.
- Brazil is Mercado Libre’s largest regional market, accounting for nearly half of its online business. The country will post the slowest growth, at 16.0%, but contribute one-third of new sales. At $15.62 billion, sales from Brazil will be nearly the same size as Argentina’s and Mexico’s combined.
- Argentina will see the fastest growth in the company’s ecommerce sales, at 31.0% to $8.76 billion. While impressive, this is less than one-third of 2020's 93.6% growth and about 21 percentage points lower than the rate of inflation slated for Argentina this year, per the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This means that any meaningful gains in sales growth will be offset by fast-rising consumer prices.
Mobile will propel future growth. Mcommerce sales will continue to eat up a larger share of Mercado Libre’s total digital revenues, representing more than three-quarters (76.1%) of its regional business for the first time this year. That’s 15.2 percentage points higher than mcommerce’s total share of retail ecommerce sales in Latin America.
- To put these figures into context, Mercado Libre’s $26.54 billion in mcommerce sales will represent more than a quarter of the region’s total retail mcommerce market.
- This milestone is a testament to the impact of Mercado Libre’s mobile-first strategy on Latin America’s retail ecommerce market.
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What an incredible company. I often wonder why this company currently has only a $43B market cap. The pre-pandemic growth rates were unsustainable.
My top 10 growth stocks!
I've finally settle on 10 stocks that I want to hold for awhile and accumulate for the next years. Its been months and months of studying them and I feel that I love their missions statements and the direction moving forward at this time. (Common theme of about half of these that they have great cash flow and great revenue numbers that I find intriguing)
$RKLB I believe this is the Space Company of the future, not SpaceX. Enough said. (Currently my top position over half of my portfolio.)
$PLTR Data analytics (Use case would be consumer companies using it to integrate their data, decisions, and operations.) (The next Microsoft suite for all companies small/mid/big/large)
$MELI E-commerce play that will dominate South America
$ENPH Solar Play
$SEDG Solar Play
$TSLA AI/Robot play
$DDOG Data (the next gold in my opinion)
$CRSP Gene Editing (I believe this stock has the biggest potential if the human trials are successful)
$STEM AI Energy Management Play
I plan to add $250 a week/or more on this portfolio. If anything changes, Ill update accordingly, but I believe in a few years out I will have at least half of these still on my portfolio.
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Big big fan here of Rocketlab and have been adding to my position in the downturn fingers crossed in 10 years I’ll be looking at a graph saying I can’t believe I bought these shares for $5
Also like Stem and have also added to that position.
Definitely want to check out the two solar plays in your list because I do like some renewable tech
August'22 - Growth Portfolio Update
- Made some adds with the cash coming in. I am looking to add some $CRWD on weakness here as well as $MELI.
YTD return: -33.9%
- Quite the rollercoaster of a month with most increase being wiped out in the past week after the Jackson Hole speech..
- I take these price weaknesses to add to the businesses that are still executing - great for the long-term!
- $NU is a new buy for me in Aug. Took a starter 1.6% position at $4.71 after diving into research and chatting with a few great investors. Planning to add and bring up to ~5% position eventually.
- I plan to deploy more cash into market weakness. Slow & steady!
Always happy to collaborate and hear your thoughts! Please comment below or send me a DM.
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Thanks for sharing! I love so many of these companies, great choices. I would love to know your thoughts on NU Holdings. I have been interested in them for a while and started reading more. My fiance is Brazilian, so I helped her open an account with them; super easy.
August Portfolio Update
New Small Position
A first look at NuBank, the LatAm fintech giant.
With over 60 million customers, they are one of the biggest Neo Banks in the world.
I already have $MELI in my portfolio, but I think NU also deserves a spot (a small one right).
If you want to support me: You can get 50% off your Seeking Alpha subscription.
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Some interesting news out of $MELI this week...
After some other e-commerce businesses like $SE saw strong adoption in Brazil, MercadoLibre announced that it will be creating MercadoCoin "which will be implemented in Brazil as part of its loyalty program," as a sort of cashback. Importantly, MercadoCoin will ONLY be able to be traded on Pago (MELI's fintech platform). What does this mean? Not sure yet (let's hear your thoughts below), but I see this as a way to increase stickiness between Pago and MercadoLibre users. First, it's an incentive to use MELI over Shopee (SE's e-commerce service) or AliExpress, as you can get cashback. However, it can also increase the adoption of Pago, which has been fast-growing as of late. I'm not sure how this will play out, but it will surely be interesting.
MercadoCoin: Success or Flop for MercadoLibre over the next 3 years?
54%Helps w/ stickiness/adoption
11 VotesPoll ended on: 08/21/22
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Does it run on a blockchain? Or is this just a crypto themed name for reward points or sky miles?
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