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Matt wolodarsky (aka The Wealthy Owl)
$3.2M follower assets
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Model growth portfolio in review
With market closing for 2023, time to report on how the stocks in my model growth portfolio tracked on @stockcardhq did for the year. I started portfolio in September 2021
In short, after a tough ‘22 it was an amazing year! Conviction pays
YTD performance of holdings
$META ⬆️194%
$PLTR ⬆️167%
$ROKU ⬆️125%
$ESTC ⬆️119%
$HUBS ⬆️101%
$GLBE ⬆️92%
$NOW ⬆️82%
$TTD ⬆️60%
$GOOG ⬆️59%
$ABNB ⬆️59%
$RBLX ⬆️61%
$TWLO ⬆️55%, on short leash
$DOCN ⬆️44%
$UBER added to portfolio August '23 ⬆️37% since
$AMZN added to portfolio August '23 ⬆️9% since
The Wealthy Owl Growth Portfolio | Mysite

Uber deep dive
🆕Just published 📰
In the emerging era of urban mobility, $UBER is just getting started. Guided by the transformative leadership of its CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, Uber has been able to move beyond its controversial and chaotic past and reinvent itself into a more resilient company on the heels of the Covid-19 crisis.

In my latest deep dive analysis, I unravel the story of a company disrupting the global transportation industry and a stock making a compelling case for its place in the portfolios of forward-thinking investors.

UBER is a holding in my model growth portfolio
Ride to Resilience: Uber stock analysis
Uber has become synonymous with modern urban transportation - a true "verb" for mobility. Check out this deep dive on Uber's stock

Ubers advertising business
On a late Saturday evening, while my family sleeps, I'm trying to figure out the potential for Uber's advertising business.

I need some perspective :)

Is using the % of revenue generated by Amazon's advertising business compared to products sold on Amazon's online store a reasonable proxy for forecasting the potential of Uber's future advertising business?

Here's what I mean. In 2022, Amazon's advertising business generated ~$30B for the company. Compare that $220B in online store net sales for the same period and we can say that Amazon advertising business is 14% of its online store.

Can we then say, it's NOT unreasonable to think that in the future Uber should be able to grow its advertising business to be 10% of the gross bookings done on its platform. Using Dara's recent disclosure that the advertising business is already a $650M annual run rate business for Uber, on $115B gross booking in 2022, advertising is less than 1% the size of gross bookings.

Not surprising given how nascent Uber's advertising business is today. But as both its advertising business and gross bookings scale, its should have no trouble reaching $10B in the next 5 or so years?? The 5 years is a total guess, but safe to say its a serious revenue driver for the company in the future??

Are you buying the comparable? Certainly not perfect, just trying to get order of magnitude.

Uber and autonomous vehicles
I've been studying $UBER for the last month and I don't think Wall Street has fully baked in the likely impact autonomous driving will have on Uber's long term growth into its current stock price.

Here's why.

Uber is partnering with several companies that are developing Autonomous Vehicles (AVs), such as Waymo, Aurora, Motional, and Nuro. These partnerships allow Uber to add different types of AVs, such as self-driving cars, trucks, delivery vehicles and drones to its supply side for autonomous rides and delivery. They are currently up and running with autonomous ride pilots in Las Vegas, and sidewalk robots and AVs that are delivering foods in Fairfax, Miami, Los Angeles, and Mountain View. Uber has also signed a multi-year partnership with Alphabet to bring their autonomous driving technology Waymo Driver to the Uber platform, beginning in Phoenix.

While there is some risk choosing the partnership route over developing its own proprietary autonomous tech, which I will cover in moment, I do believe the long-term potential AVs will have on Uber’s growth is significant.
By converting more of its driver supply side network to AV Uber will be able to dramatically lower rider fees to make the service accessible to more people and therefore grow its addressable market. Given the current maturity of the technology it will likely take 10+ years before most of Uber’s demand will be served by autonomous options.

But it’s already being used in select cities, and it will only scale from here. After reaching this milestone, gross bookings and revenue will be more on par with each other, profitability will improve as Uber’s largest current expense, driver fees, will be significantly reduced, and some of these savings will be passed on to customers so Uber can grow volume and revenue.

Wall Street might be underestimating how much self-driving cars could help Uber grow its business. Uber bears speculate that as autonomous driving technology gets better, such as Alphabet’s Waymo, get better and deployed more, they could make ride-share services like Uber and Lyft totally unnecessary by setting up their own competing ride sharing services, possibly putting them out of business.

This bear argument overlooks the potential for mutually beneficial partnerships and the existing strengths of Uber's network. For autonomous driving companies such as Waymo who are already on the record with plans to offer their technology to OEM manufacturers, benefit immensely from partnering with Uber and its well-regarded brand and immense user base who might otherwise be hesitant about autonomous vehicles.

Moreover, Uber is well-positioned to facilitate the gradual transition to autonomous driving. The shift to full autonomy will be a hybrid process, with human-driven and autonomous vehicles coexisting for a significant period. Further advancements in the tech are necessary to meet the long tail of use cases such as driving in bad weather or in unique local conditions. With the time it will take to scale manufacturing and deployment there is NO way autonomous provides will be able to meet the ride-sharing demand over night. During this transition period Uber's extensive network and experience in ride-sharing place it in an ideal position to manage this transition effectively, ensuring continued service availability and customer satisfaction.

I also think it’s worth noting that the reason why Uber senior mgmt is not overly promoting the full future impact of autonomous driving on its business is because the company needs to maintain positive relations with its driver community. Nothing would drive more of a wedge with drivers than talking about how they plan to significantly reduce the number of miles on its network driven by humans.

For these reasons I don’t think the full impact of autonomous driving on its business is totally baked into Uber’s current stock price and therefore may offer investors some upside.

You've conveyed your thoughts well here. As a Waymo customer in SF, I found that people are getting access through the app instead of through Uber. Seeing the DTC success in SF makes me hopeful that Waymo can replicate the success elsewhere. Many people that already have access to Waymo SF are eager to see themselves being able to use it in Santa Monica, LA, Miami, etc. As they expand into more cities, I doubt they'll go back to Uber. I think Waymo's DTC success is bearish for Uber's future. Uber may have significant influence on Aurora and may rely on autonomous trucking as Waymo dominates robotaxis.
+ 1 comment
Uber market size bigger than most assume?
I'm about 1/4 the way into my $UBER research and I think I may be discovering upside the market may not be fully appreciating.

The ride sharing market may have a much larger future if Uber can bring down the costs of rides and remove more friction from the market, thus making it more accessible to more customers.

Uber has chosen the partnership route for introducing autonomous vehicles (AVs) into its market - just last week launching Waymo in a couple US cities. In 10 years this could be a step change for Uber in making their mobility offering more affordable and accessible.

Just as countless other tech companies have been able to use disruptive technology to bring down the costs of their products and services and make them more accessible, will Uber be able to do this over time?

What is critical for Uber to do to make this a reality?

I continue to have interest in $GTLB

small starter position only

duopoly with MSFT, and with last weeks public disclosure about how well GitHub Coplit is doing re: dev productivity gains, rev run rate, gitlab seems like a reasonably priced alternative

They are getting ready to launch their coding copilot in partnership with Google…could be a tailwind

Is GenAI investible at this early stage of its lifecycle?
With all the hype surrounding #LLMs and #GenAI it got me thinking how ready is this space for investing?

Meaning, where is #tech is in its adoption lifecycle? Is it just hype or has the tech fully arrived? Are there significant bottlenecks remaining that are blocking mainstream adoption? Has the business model been figured out?

✅All elements are here: Chips, scale compute, massive amounts of data

✅ All bottlenecks have been removed: thanks to #ChatGPT GenAI is super accessible. Just type what u want into chat box. Price will continue to 📉

☑️ Biz model: we r still in experimental stage. #OpenAI $GOOG and $MSFT have all set initial user level pricing but will it stick? How will ad model work with AI assistants and what will happen to search? Dev model seems set with consumption level pricing model but with infra costs to come down expect more price changes. In short, Further business model innovation needed but in meantime hardware players (read: $NVDA) are raking 💰. Remember during dotcom boom everyone thought $CSCO was going to be a trillion $ company. Hardware typically commoditized and long term winners are software CO’s. This time long term winners could be companies like $PLTR, $RBLX, with incumbents like $MSFT, $GOOG, $META, and $AMZN getting even bigger.

The pattern for these questions to get answered fully often takes longer than projected by most analysts.

I think that’s changing. While history can often be a helpful guide for what’s to come, there are special times when the exponential rate of growth makes a step change and prior expectations for the pace of change are no longer valid. I believe we are entering such a period thanks to the recent launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. It took only two months for a BETA version of Chat GPT to reach 100 million monthly active users, beating the previous champ TikTok by seven months.

Great write up! With generative AI, $RBLX developers can build games and merchandise faster. I am excited to see $MSFT expand its revenues mutliple-fold because of generative AI. $META can finally cut development costs on their metaverse because of generative AI.
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