@matt

Matt wolodarsky (aka The Wealthy Owl)'s avatar

$5.3M follower assets

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$ABNB is a business that is built to last because of its brand and network effects.

Lets talk about a time when Airbnb's network was tested by a more, well funded competitor.

In 2011 $ABNB faced 1st direct comp, berlin based startup called Wimdu

Wimdu was born by Samwer brothers who earned reputation for cloning US Internet businesses. They built and sold euro auction site to ebay for $50M, and Citydeal which was inspired & acquired by groupon for $170M

Wimdu launched w/ similar look & taglines to $ABNB
Instead of ABNB "find a place to stay" Wimdu promised "Find your favorite places to stay"

At launch had $90M in ๐Ÿฆ & 400 ๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ’ผ๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ’ผ

@ same time ABNB had 40 ๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ’ผ๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ’ผ, $7M round & only supported ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ’ณ & english only web site

We know what happened to $ABNB - ๐Ÿ‘‹ $72B MC
Wimdu? W/in 2 years ABNB 'em

In ๐Ÿ“œ of ABNB CEO Brian Chesky "My biggest revenge on u is, im going to make u run this company long term"

Why would that be scary to Wimdu?

Thats where $ABNB network effects come in.

W/in months of founding, Wimdu was 10X > $ABNB

More from CEO Chesky "suddenly giant ๐Ÿฒ appears an ur like this is not possible to beat him"

Not just euro market at stake. Precedent in ๐Ÿ›… industry for euro competitor to grow into global threat e.g. booking dot com

Wimdu focused on speed, ๐Ÿšซ quality

2 ๐Ÿ— supply, used bots to scrape $ABNB listings & present on their site, recruited large property owners that managed 100s of shit hostels

Same on demand side, $$ marketing

Listed 50k+ units, $130M annual rev

BUT, poor quality network

$ABNB on other ๐Ÿ– focused on creating expectations gap blowing guests away w/ great experienc, .leading to word of ๐Ÿ‘… & SEO marketing

๐Ÿ— organic supply in ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ over yrs, had ๐Ÿค, high quality atomic network they could ๐Ÿ“ˆ
Invested in site localization, enabling >๐Ÿ’ฑ, ๐Ÿ‘ขon ground, PR

It worked. Wimdu wanted $ABNB to bu them. Chesky declined. Within 2 years Wimdu was no more

ABNB with its smaller ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บnetwork beat better funded, laser focused comp. thru great customer experience, building quality supply, and winning over hosts

The End

Long $ABNB
6 things im doing to deal w/ stock market downturn and my anxiety from it
not for everyone, just my plan to deal with these uncertain times

  1. Get into right mindset. Markets ๐Ÿ“‰๐Ÿ’จ , but they do recover & then some. This experienced truism keeps me ๐Ÿ’†โ€โ™‚๏ธ in important days ahead. Cant let emotion creep into decision making. natural to be led by ๐Ÿ˜จ Remain calm & ๐Ÿค”long term

  1. Donโ€™t panic sell. As tempting is to sell to โœ‹๏ธcarnage, just remember not a loss unless you sell. Starting 1930, BoA found if investor missed S&P 500โ€™s 10 best day in each decade, total returns would be just 91%, below 14,962% return for investors who held steady thru ๐Ÿ“‰

Selling & then buying back when ๐Ÿค” normalcy has returned will result in โฌ†๏ธ likelihood of missing some of 10 best days that will occur over decade. Only sold names no confidence in. bad co's will be hit hard during tough times. free up ๐Ÿ’ธ 2 purchase good co's selling @ discount

  1. Re-assessing my risk tolerance. Major market ๐Ÿ“‰ reveal ur true risk tolerance. We all want to say we can take on some risk in exchange 4 โฌ†๏ธ return only when our portfolios ๐Ÿ“‰ 10% in day & 30% in month that resolve is tested. Using ๐Ÿ“‰to rethink my tolerance for risk

I am able 2 tolerate short-term pain and can take on risk knowing rewards will come.

Im following legendary investor Warren Buffettโ€™s advice:

โ€œBe greedy when others are fearful"

Be honest w/ self. whatever ur truth is whats right for u.

  1. Selling some fixed income & real estate 2 free up ๐Ÿ’ธ 2๏ธโƒฃ buy๐Ÿ‘ co's on sale

this is definitely not for everyone

Intend to build normal allocation back up 2b commensurate with my risk tolerance and life stage.
Unique โฒ๏ธ & I want to be on ๐Ÿ‘‰ side of what could end up being 1๏ธโƒฃ of largest wealth transfers in history

  1. Dollar cost averaging in..
Dont know when we will hit bottom, will buy over small increments over next 6+ months

  1. Buying great co's at discount. You know those amazing companies that you have been kicking yourself for not getting in on earlier. Where the price was so expensive that it stopped you from buying. Well, im dusting my list off. โฒ๏ธ like this are when investing careers are made.

ive published my two model portfolios here https://www.thewealthyowl.com/modelportfolios
Love this ๐Ÿ‘

Agree with everything you say, and this is an excellent summary.

Thank you for the timely advice for everyone ๐Ÿ™
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Coming off strong quarter, added to my $TTD position in my growth portfolio - https://t.co/C9U0Pck5wP

Latest admission by NFLX they will subsidize subs w/ advertising points to future of streaming being supported by ad biz model. TTD is credible player in streaming ad space.
For those thinking metaverse advertising is quaint...

First ads on internet ran in 1994, banner ads run on HotWired, 1st web mag - MCI, Volvo, Club Med and 1-800-Collect

Mosaic browser, dial up, 24.4 kps, 2M US internet population

Metaverse is past 1st days
$ABNB report

Revenue: $1.51 billion vs. $1.45 estimates, 70% Y/Y

Adjusted EBITDA: $229 million vs. $75.5 million expected

long-term stays, or visits of at least 28 days, reached an all-time high and more than doubled compared to the first quarter of 2019

Long
Predicting the future to power ur investing returns
Hindsight is 20/20

But its worth trying to figure out whats changing or whats important to know that will impact the future...

Spotting major shifts in economy, tech, industry brought about best stocks in my portfolio. Mega trends create sig. value over extended period for elite co's positioned to ๐Ÿ„โ€โ™‚๏ธ

๐Ÿงตon some of most important insights about future from leading thinkers @ time

What am i missing?

  1. "Every two days now we create as much information as we did from the dawn of civilization up until 2003"
Eric Schmidt, Google CEO, 2010

  1. "Software is eating the world.
My own theory is that we are in the middle of a dramatic and broad technological and economic shift in which software companies are poised to take over large swathes of the economy"

Mark Andresseen, 2011, software is eating

  1. "Instead of going to a physical store, people will order the majority of store-bought goods online, including food staples, paper products and cleaning supplies."
Jeff Bezos, 1999

  1. "There will be a computer on every desk and in every home"
Bill Gates, 1980

  1. "When wireless applied, ๐ŸŒ will be converted into big ๐Ÿง . We shall be able to comm w/ 1 another instantly. through ๐Ÿ“บ & โ˜Ž๏ธ we shall ๐Ÿ‘€ & ๐Ÿ‘‚1 another perf, despite intervening distances; instruments will b simple compared w/ present โ˜Ž๏ธ.๐Ÿงโ€โ™‚๏ธwill carry 1 in vest"
Nikola Tesla, 1926

With countless annual top tech prediction clickbait, hard to decipher what is truly changing, what ๐Ÿ“ˆ r important & what co's r best positioned to captilize...

Let me know if ud be interested in article about deciphering insightful from ๐Ÿ—‘ to help u boost ur investing returns
Pays to listen to marc andreessen

Long $NVDA

From 2016:

"Weโ€™ve been investing in a lot of startups applying deep learning to many areas, and every single one effectively comes in building on Nvidiaโ€™s platform.

"Itโ€™s like when people were all building on Windows in the โ€™90s or all building on the iPhone in the late 2000s.

โ€œFor fun,โ€ adds Andreessen, โ€œour firm has an internal game of what public companies weโ€™d invest in if we were a hedge fund. Weโ€™d put all our money into Nvidia.โ€
So ahead of the times with this prophetic quote! Whatโ€™s Mr. Andresssen saying today? Might want to catch the wave!
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