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Matt wolodarsky (aka The Wealthy Owl)
$4.1M follower assets
15 following137 followers
The next big opportunity at Roblox
#Roblox has been turning on a lot of new revenue streams recently - immersive ads, subs, limited items, etc.

My money is on real world commerce being the next big revenue activation

With tens of millions of virtual items being bought and sold in Roblox's marketplace every day and hundreds of millions of monthly virtual transactions, commerce is alive and well on Roblox. The next big commerce opportunity for Roblox is to enable real world commerce in the metaverse.

Imagine visiting the Gucci Garden in Roblox, discovering some new handbags, trying it out on your avatar, and buying it "two for one" style where your purchase of the virtual handbag kicks off a back end e-commerce process that has the physical version of the handbag show up on your doorstep the next day.

Roblox has shared their vision of real world brands using Roblox to sell physical versions of their products and services. They believe Roblox will become a major commerce channel for brands. I agree.

Today, Roblox has 65.5 daily active users & there were 14B hrs engaged last Q. With that much time already being spent on the platform socializing, playing, discovering new worlds and buying virtual items, it seems only natural that users will spend some of that time shopping, especially if real world commerce is integrated into the experiences people are already spending so much time in. We see it happening with social, as commerce becomes integrated into social media, people are buying directly from within Facebook, Instagram or Pinterest.

People prefer trying out new products before they buy them. The metaverse offers a unique experience for consumers to interact with 3D virtual versions of products before buying. VR and AR adoption should provide a catalyst for this new category of real world commerce on Roblox. Being able to “touch” and interact with a product increases sales conversion rates and reduces returns. In a recent Digital Deloitte and Snap study, it was shown interacting with products that have AR experiences leads to a 94% higher conversion rate.

Next level commerce that Roblox may enable in the future involves customizing products to suit consumers specific tastes. Most users spend a lot of time creating inside Roblox. It's not a stretch to imagine working side by side with your favorite brand (probably thru an AI run designer avatar) to design and/or customize their product to suit your needs, before having it sent to your house.


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Stock Idea: Roblox is coming of age
It was about a month into the pandemic when Roblox became my five-year old son's obsession, and my saving grace as a parent. Stuck in lockdown I was scrambling to find ways to keep my son engaged. Since I first joined my son on Roblox in 2020 to becoming an investor in the company when it went public in 2021, my eyes have been opened to what Roblox is today and what it's poised to become. From working together at a pizza restaurant, to going on an expedition to Antarctica, building a boat or vis

Not only what you said, but their audience is VERY young! 60% of their users are aged 16 and under, which means that they have a moat of brand recognition with an aging generation. I don't know about you, but I have this inkling that digital swag is going to become more of a status symbol than physical swag, which is only going to give more credence to an increase in people buying digital products. Roblox is perfectly positioned to take advantage of this.

It's honestly so incredible, and this post is reminding me to get back into Roblox again (I sold it last year)!
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ABNB and advertising
On the “Big Technology Podcast” today Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky confirmed the company will eventually move into ad business letting hosts advertise on platform.

One 3rd party analyst projected this could be a $3.7B annual rev biz by 2030

Chesky said they will move slowly to make sure they don’t inadvertently tax the user experience. But, it’s coming…no timeline

This is just 1 of the 3 areas of optionality I speculated on in my $ABNB deep dive

The other 2:

  1. capture more of the $1.8T global travel market by expanding into new segments like travel packages, car rental and meals

  1. entice a new generation of young people to live off its platform. This entails foregoing the traditional one year lease agreement to stay in multiple cities throughout the year, all powered by long term stays on Airbnb.
Airbnb Deep Dive: The verb for authentic travel, and maybe a new lifestyle
In early 2020 Airbnb faced a perfect storm. Coming off a significant ramp in spending, news of a deadly virus was emerging that would go to lock down the world. With plans for a public IPO, Airbnb was in for its most difficult period since the early days of its founding. What probably felt like a disaster for CEO Brian Chesky at the time turned out to be a transformational period for Airbnb. The category defining travel company would emerge in a much better position to capitalize on a revolution

Evaluation framework for finding next multibagger tech stock
My framework for evaluating multibagger potential tech stocks. Missing anything?

Don't miss out on the next big #tech boom. Learn how to identify Multibagger #stocks with my criteria for finding great tech CO’s to invest in…

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In Search of Multibaggers: The Ultimate Guide to Technology Stock Investing
Don't miss out on the next big tech boom. Learn how to identify Multibagger stocks with the ultimate guide to technology stock investing

Cutting edge uses of Generative AI
Spot the real headline

#GenAI eating the world

Only one of these 5 headlines is real. Which one?

  1. Cutting-Edge AI at Cloud Inc.: Now Generating New Revenue Streams by 'Accidentally' Overbilling Clients!
  2. Nike's QuantumSole: Walk in Shoes Designed by Your Dreams with AI Customization
  3. ChatGPT-4 generates more, cheaper and better ideas than Ivey league business students
  4. Bulgaria's AI-Driven E-Government Revolution: Empowering Citizens and Streamlining Services
  5. Spotify using generative AI to improve life for Swedes by creating customized ABBA songs

Generative AI and Roblox
Roblox’s new AI chatbot will help you build virtual worlds

Generative AI will drive a step change in $RBLX engagement, making devs more productive creating on platform

This productivity leads to more and better experiences on the platform, creating more engaged users who spend more time on it and bring their friends onto it. #flywheel

The closest equivalent I know of is GitHub Copliot which uses generative AI to make devs 55% faster

Not to mention how soon anyone will be able to create their own amazing experiences

The Verge
Roblox’s new AI chatbot will help you build virtual worlds
Another AI chatbot, but this seems useful.

Importance of mega trends in multibagger hunting
When looking for the next #tech #Multibagger #stock, tailwinds matter. There is no greater tailwind for technology stocks than a mega trend.

“If you're looking for a home run -- a great investment for five years or 10 years or more -- then the only way to beat this enormous fog that covers the future is to identify a long-term trend that will give a particular business some sort of edge.”

  • legendary investment manager Ralph Wanger

A mega trend causes significant transformational change to the economy, business, or society. Mega trends create significant value over an extended period, like electricity, automobiles, and the Internet all did.

So how can tech investors capitalize from mega trends successfully? Before pouncing on the latest technology fad, be skeptical and make sure all the elements of an investment ready mega trend are in place before pushing that buy button.

Where is the technology is in its adoption lifecycle. Is it just hype or has the technology fully arrived? Are there significant bottlenecks remaining that are blocking mainstream adoption of the technology? Has the business model been figured out?

Keep these considerations in mind when assessing if the Mega trend in question has truly arrived:

  1. Sometimes it takes a while for all the necessary elements of the technology to arrive. Typically, they aren’t all there on the same day. For example, mobile computing has been an important catalyst for embedding the Internet into all facets of the economy and society. The promise of the Internet was “information at your fingertips”. Well, this was hard to realize when people spent most of the day away from their desktop computers. The arrival of smartphones kicked off the next wave of adoption of the Internet.

  1. All bottlenecks need to be removed for mainstream adoption to occur. With the arrival of the Internet came the promise of the Internet as a platform for TV. Companies such as []( and RealAudio Player promised we would be watching TV thru the web imminently. While that kind of hyperbole worked for investors, Yahoo paid $5.7 billion for []( which now does not exist, the required technology was just not there for an acceptable end user experience. Because of Moore’s Law, exponential advances in optical communications and storage, the necessary technology infrastructure was in place for streaming. Now, providers such as YouTube and Netflix have all been able to reward their investors significantly because of broadband and ubiquitous devices all stacked with high resolution displays, significant storage, optimized graphics processing and advanced connectivity, available at affordable prices.

  1. Megatrend investing success is not just about technology innovation. Business model innovation is an important catalyst to value creation and stock returns. Streaming and peer-to-peer file sharing technology innovation brought us Napster, the popular music sharing platform, but it took significant business model innovation from the technology and music industry to find a formula for sustainable monetization.
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After six months of writing I’m super proud to publish “In Search of Multibaggers: The Ultimate Guide to Technology Stock Investing”

Over the decades I’ve spent learning about and investing in #technology stocks, I’ve identified a set of
characteristics to help me identify #MultiBagger technology #stocks

In my most epic post ever I share my evaluation process for finding my next Multibagger technology stock, providing signposts to look for and sharing relevant examples from the riveting and disruptive world of the tech sector.

Don't miss out on the next big tech boom. Learn how to identify Multibagger stocks with my latest blog post.

History repeating itself?
The potential for generative AI to accelerate revenue amongst my fav stocks $META $GOOG $AMZN $MSFT $PLTR $HUBS reminds me of last tech paradigm shift that accelerated revenue for tech co's

Read on to learn how $ADBE rode to the cloud wave to go from negative growth to premium revenue growth (20%+) and 20X stock price appreciation...

Adobe and its successful transition from a traditional, perpetual software license model to SaaS subscription model in 2012 is striking example of how growth acceleration can benefit investors massively off two powerful catalysts – revenue growth and multiple expansion (P/S, P/E).

Facing sub 10% revenue growth in 2011 and an emerging new
paradigm for software delivery, Adobe was facing the classic innovators dilemma.
Pivot to SaaS and cannibalize its traditional licensing business significantly
in the short term or stick with the status quo and face a likely long, drawn-out
death. In November 2011 the company made its decision to pivot its business to
a SaaS model public by announcing its intentions to Wall Street and by the next
year their new SaaS, subscription service Creative Cloud was live. There was
some pain in the short term, 30,000 customers signed a petition on
asking Adobe to abandon the SaaS transition, and revenue decreased through 2013
and early 2014. However, the transformation began having the expected effects –
stabilizing revenue by shifting from one-time purchases to recurring revenue, increase
lifetime value of customer, expanding the base to include more casual customers
who could justify a monthly subscription, reducing piracy and expanding into
new geographic markets.

Revenue surged, going from quarterly declines to 20%+ quarterly growth in under two years. Adobe’s premium revenue growth (20%+) would sustain over the next six years. Investors took note, re-rating the stock from a Price to
Sales ratio of 3 to 21 by the end of its cloud fueled premium growth phase. Investors
along for the ride saw a near 20X increase in their bet on this transformation
over its ten-year lifespan.

Is history about to repeat itself with generative AI?

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