Everything is Advertising Now
  • On a long enough timeline everything becomes advertising.
  • This is a slide from $UBER latest presentation.
  • This is happening across the board - from $AMZN (where the ad business is rivalling AWS and is likely very profitable) to Instacart (just filed for IPO) and Walmart.
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$U $BIRD $OLO Earnings: What I'm Looking For
Unity Software Inc. ($U) - Reporting earnings this afternoon (5/10)

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Currently trading at 15.2 trailing sales and 8.7 forward sales which sounds expensive. However, It's slightly on the cheap side on my Price-to-Sales-to-Growth ratio at 0.20 (accurately priced is 0.25). Will they maintain 40% revenue growth and keep the PSG in the range it's at?
  • Net profit margin (I guess it's more accurate to call it a net loss margin) has gotten worse each of the past 2 years. FCF worsened as well. Curious to see what direction this goes. I would guess they'll both get worse before better.
  • Operate revenue growth >50%.
  • DBNER >140%
  • Customers generating $100,000 revenue >1,100.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 27th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.32 years
Number of purchases since: 1
Annualized return: (90.7%)
Annualized $SPY return: (30.0%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (45.1%)

Allbirds, Inc. ($BIRD) - Reporting earnings this afternoon (5/10)
This is a company that I'm partially blinded by my love of the product. Allbirds are incredible shoes. I own 5 pairs. I still think $LULU should by them. Seems like a match made in heaven.

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Really need to see strong revenue growth. 2021 grew at 26.5%. Really hoping for 30%+ in Q1.
  • Would really appreciate if management would begin providing digital vs store revenue breakdown along with shoe vs apparel and men vs women.
  • Just curious to see what management's comments on are the conference call.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 22nd highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.51 years
Number of purchases since: 2
Annualized return: (92.5%)
Annualized $SPY return: (21.6%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (38.3%)

Olo Inc. ($OLO) - Reporting earnings this afternoon (5/10)
This was my play on the food delivery trend. I hate the food delivery apps ($DASH $UBER $GRUB whatever, they all suck and are predatory to their "contractors" and the restaurants). Olo though is just SaaS for restaurants. I'm getting pummeled in my position but I remain cautiously bullish.

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Annualized revenue growth of 67% since 2018 is nothing to sneeze at. Need to keep it up to justify their somehow still high P/S ratios. PSG is cheap on my scale though at 0.10.
  • Gross profit margins got worse in 2021. Get it back above 80%, please.
  • Active location count growth >83,000.
  • Average revenue per unit >$525.
  • NRR >120%
  • Not sure of management will provide this metric but a modules per location update would be lovely.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 12th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 1.14 years
Number of purchases since: 1
Annualized return: (61.1%)
Annualized $SPY return: 2.4%
Annualized $QQQ return: (4.1%)
$UBER and $LYFT price notes

Quarterly returns:

  • Negative for both companies for the past 4 quarters
  • Q2 2022 (in progress / incomplete) doesn't look like much will change

Quarterly returns (interactive)
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Car/Scooter rental companies are going to thrive this summer
As gas prices remain high, $UBER and $LYFT struggle to find drivers. Because of this, they're jacking up the price of rideshare rides.

Car rental companies like $HTZ and $CAR are going to see immense demand as tourists will have to rent a car to go from Point A to Point B. And for tourists who are in the city, while parking will be difficult to get, at least there are electric scooters that people can rent out. $BRDS is one company that's greatly positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for electric scooters.

If no one is willing to give people a ride, then people will have to drive themselves to their destinations. That's the theme for the upcoming summer travel season.
Algorithmic Tech Sell Off
Netflix’s hilarious slump has me reminiscing over an Instagram reel in 2021 where a man with a backwards cap was finger pointing at the camera touting his $50k investment of Netflix in 2017… guaranteed he didn’t sell because 90% of the people that road the Dot Com Bubble sold at the bottom… well, he still doubled his money.

The Dow/SP 500 and NASDAQ are finally decoupling their algorithmic relationship, meaning we’ll continue to see large price discrepancies. I’m not touting the deflation of all tech companies, however, I’ll be focusing my attention on two gig economy stocks: Marqeta $MQ and UBER $UBER. I’m already invested in Marqeta (see my previous post) and will enter UBER following a similar thesis based on Modern Portfolio Theory.

I exited Vermilion Energy TSE:VET and Mosaic last week; holding SembCorp Industries SGX: U96.
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