Neil's avatar
$35.4m follower assets
Roku Stock
In this video, I will be talking about why Roku soared 8% on Thursday, Sept. 15, while the overall market was down. Growth investor Cathie Wood has been buying shares lately, and Roku is one of ARK Invest's largest positions.

sam stribling's avatar
$116.5m follower assets
Perspective is Key!
I am sharing this to hopefully encourage and give perspective to the market. This has been my journey over the last 5 years, effectively proving TIME IN THE MARKET > TIMING THE MARKET.

My journey has gone something like this: figuring it out 🤨 (probably 6 years of it), mind blowing experience during the last bull run, the antithesis of our current experience 🤯, chillin fat dumb and happy 🤤, crashin 🤬, and now determined 😠 to get back on top.

Do I know everything? Not even close.

Am I trying? As hard as I can.

Am I keeping the faith? You bet.

Biggest lessons I’ve learned so far are:

  1. Trading is hard. My big leg up phase was really me riding the market and consistently adding to my portfolio.

  1. Greed can blind you - the chart doesn’t lie, I’ve been basically cut in half over the last 12 months. Been tough to be growth heavy! Hind sight 20/20 I wish I trimmed some of my huge winners. $ROKU being my biggest lesson. I still have never sold a share, EVER. However, last year I was up 1000% and when a stock dives by about 90% well I gave that up (hopefully just temporarily).

  1. Buying is just better than selling - don’t sell into weakness unless it’s for tax loss harvesting. If you work like I do, add a little from each paycheck. (Need to practice what I preach, just got a new job so I need to setup that direct deposit!)

  1. Take advantage of what you can! These accounts I manage but I still have a 401K and a whole life policy (creates cash value) outside of this!

  1. Do your homework! Learn learn learn.

In conclusion. This year has taught me some hard lessons. It has likely taught you some too. The good times will come back but, it might take a long time and the market doesn’t give a shit about your schedule. So, stay the course and let’s come back from this terrible macro together! It just may take some time, but, time can be your best friend.
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Practicing what I preach! Just took the 3 minutes to setup a new direct deposit from each paycheck. Think about that.. 3 minutes of time and now I am back to adding to my cash position every 2 weeks.
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Do any $ROKU bulls think TV shipments will go positive and keep growing?
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If you believe a weaker consumer will downgrade to the cheapest TV then yeah maybe it can grow sales at a higher rate than competitors. I also am nervous as I’ve recently learned Amazon has their own Fire TVs & Walmart now has hardware with the Onn brand. If being the cheapest hardware is core to adoption of Roku then I am worried larger players can make their hardware a loss leader to undercut Roku on pricing.
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Cheap TVs: $ROKU vs. $VZIO
Smart TV's and their operating systems has been a hotly debated topic the last couple years. I think it's agreeable that it is unlikely for the end state of this operating system race to result in a duopoly market like the PC ( Mac / Windows ) or Smart Phone ( iOS / Android ).

For this post I am focusing on just low priced TVs. This is where Roku & Vizio compete. I find it interesting that Vizio has recently experienced a similar growth rate as Roku while also closing the monetization gap. Both companies are using hardware as a loss leaders for adoption, as their respective platforms are driving 95-105%+ of gross profits.

The remaining question is who has the superior approach to gaining marketshare among the low end consumer?

Roku serves as a partner to OEM's which allows these companies to skip the platform R&D to focus on hardware efficiencies in a bid to drive down the overall price of the TV. Vizio is vertically integrated where they must spend on both hardware R&D and platform R&D. At first this seems like a larger burden for Vizio if they wish to have the lowest priced TVs but perhaps it's advantageous. Perhaps by owning the entire process internally Vizio can allow hardware to become a larger loss leader than Roku.

It seems to just be a CAC/ LTV question. Take a loss of X dollars on the sale of the TV today but make it up over the remaining years as the TV owner consumes advertisements. Improve your platform technology and shorten the payback period. Improve your hardware and keep the user for longer, as there is no guarantee they will buy a Vizio again once the TV breaks.
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Portfolio Update: August
With many holdings reporting earnings last month, I began to see some separation between the truly elite companies and the mediocre (or poor). Companies like The Trade Desk $TTD proved that they are an exceptional ad-tech company while many like $ROKU and $SNAP sunk. On the other hand, previous favorites $OLO and $MDB demonstrated that they aren't as resistant to macro forces as I thought.

$TTD is one of my personal largest holdings, so we're in agreement there. Surely over the long term $MDB, as a critical software and with the NoSQL trend, has staying power, no?
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Purchased more $PLTR after hours today. About 80% of the way to my ideal amount of shares long term. Would buy more $ROKU or $ZM but I have my ideal amount in both.

It it sniffs the level from earlier this summer, I will finish the last 20% of my position.

Debated on growing $SNOW today (DCA, so I was buying regardless), but I want to see earnings for a potential Zoom like drop.

Warning. I’m just an average dumb man throwing money at companies.
Yegor's avatar
$181.8m follower assets
YouTube Advances Plans for Streaming Video Marketplace

The article above is for paid subs (which I am not) but SeekingAlpha has done a post on it which is free (SA no longer allows me to share their posts via link … idk why), so here it is if you don’t want to pay for WSJ

YouTube (GOOG) $GOOGL is planning a platform where it would sell streaming video services from industry players, and it's engaged in discussions about how that would work, The Wall Street Journal reports.

The company calls it a "channel store" where users might buy subscriptions to the likes of Netflix $NFLX , HBO $WBD and Hulu $DIS through YouTube.

That would bring the a la carte store more in line with what YouTube does with its YouTube TV live-television offering, which allows subscribers to pay to add on subscription services such as HBO Max (not unlike the old cable bundles).

And it would bring YouTube in line with some key digital rivals acting as gatekeepers to peddling streaming services, notably Amazon Channels $AMZN ,Roku $ROKU and Apple TV $AAPL

YouTube is discussing how a revenue split would work with its streaming partners, though terms could vary widely, according to the report.

The company has been working on the "channel store" solution for at least 18 months, according to the report, and it could be ready as soon as the fall.

All credits to WSJ and SeekingAlpha.
Observation with the streaming industry
From $NFLX to $WBD, many streaming companies are looking to transition their pricing model from a paid subscription without ads to a free subscription with ads.

Netflix is doing this to simply attract more customers. Warner Bros. Discovery is doing this because it knows that relying on paid subscriptions won't be enough to make their streaming efforts break even.

For a long time, Netflix bulls will point out that the growing number of hours that people watch content on the platform was bullish for the company. The issue I had with their view is that users can maximize the value of their subscriptions and the company is still reaping the same amount of profit that it receives from subscribers who barely watch content on Netflix.

With ad-supported subscriptions, streaming companies will be able to profit directly from the growing number of hours of content that consumers watch on these platforms. And if they're viewing content through the Roku platform, $ROKU could see its advertising business surge.

For consumers, having free access to streaming sites let's them view their favorite shows. At the same time, the incentive structure for streaming providers changes to where they're incentivized to produce higher quality content, which makes consumers even more entertained.

It will be interesting to see how profitable these streaming companies will become once they become fully reliant on advertising for revenue.