On a late Saturday evening, while my family sleeps, I'm trying to figure out the potential for Uber's advertising business.

I need some perspective :)

Is using the % of revenue generated by Amazon's advertising business compared to products sold on Amazon's online store a reasonable proxy for forecasting the potential of Uber's future advertising business?

Here's what I mean. In 2022, Amazon's advertising business generated ~$30B for the company. Compare that $220B in online store net sales for the same period and we can say that Amazon advertising business is 14% of its online store.

Can we then say, it's NOT unreasonable to think that in the future Uber should be able to grow its advertising business to be 10% of the gross bookings done on its platform. Using Dara's recent disclosure that the advertising business is already a $650M annual run rate business for Uber, on $115B gross booking in 2022, advertising is less than 1% the size of gross bookings.

Not surprising given how nascent Uber's advertising business is today. But as both its advertising business and gross bookings scale, its should have no trouble reaching $10B in the next 5 or so years?? The 5 years is a total guess, but safe to say its a serious revenue driver for the company in the future??

Are you buying the comparable? Certainly not perfect, just trying to get order of magnitude.