Eric Messenger's avatar

$19.9M follower assets

Self-taught investor. Developing objective mental models using metrics displaying clear correlation to outperformance. A progressive journey toward generational wealth. #investwithdeebo
Nexo for Suckers
This is exactly why Nexo only got the initial $100 every crypto platform started with in my investments. The yields were 16%-36% on random crypto currencies that didn’t offer ANY yield on most platforms; Axie, Fantom, & Polygon for example. Been waiting on this shoe to drop since the crypto lenders with unsustainable yields started failing. I’m comfortable putting more money into the 4%-10% yielding assets, but >30% without risk is just BS for suckers.

Defensive Dividends
I have a relatively safe/defensive dividend portion of my portfolio; $INTC yielding >5% yield is crazy. It had a position in that wing of my portfolio yielding >3%, this is just silly. They just gave up #1 spot in market share to Samsung recently if I remember right. I’ve added some growth semi companies recently, but this seems obvious as a long term buy for defensive positions with excellent yield. Even with slowing growth.

This won’t be a popular pick, but I don’t beat the market annually doing what’s popular!✌️
This is one of my favorite 4-5 pot socks and one of two I am currently holding. If I had large enough positions elsewhere , there’s at least three more pot stocks I want to add to my little “Big E THC ETF” that are either profitable, or very near profitable with the most impressive growth, sales, efficient cy and ratio
Another Gem
Listening to the Value Investing with Legends again today; loved the guest the interview on this episode. Hog insight to investing opens up new ways to look at investments. Similar to myself, he was blinded by valuation early in his career and has shifted to quality first, then value after. Another great episode from one of my new favorite podcasts.

Makes No Sense
It always surprises me on days like today where I can see 190/200 stocks I watch be down 3%-9%, but then see my Fidelity 500 fund in my 401-k be positive for the day.

Can anyone make sense of that for me?
post media
Makes no sense to me but I wouldn’t ask too many questions 🤣 take the win!
Sold Regeneron
Just like I buy into irrational drops, I sell into irrational gains. Data shows investors overreact to both good news & bad. While these clinical trials may show excellent promise, 20% moves in one day are just plain irrational in my book. It was a very small position because it’s not an industry I like to dabble in. Perfectly content taking a ~16% gain on the position and adding to something I have more conviction in.
I took a similar approach with my speculative plays. When I got 20% or so of a gain I cashed out of the position and used the gains to increase a long term holding while redistributing the initial investment into another speculative stock. Worked well during the boom, not so much recently.

Add a comment…
Multiple Compression🤯💸

Great episode of The Canadian Investor. Title mentions Canadian housing and tech (specifically SaaS), the latter is why I’m sharing. Braden talks about the dramatic multiple compression of some of these barely profitable, or not yet profitable, software as a service companies. I’m sure people hit the jackpot occasionally, but there’s a reason I don’t reach for stratospheric valuations. It’s usually indicative of a bubblish environment and with a little patience one can get into these great companies after the correction that inevitably comes.

I’ll let you listen to get the details, but they explain why some of us have never seen 60%-80% losses on a position and it’s not because I use stop loss orders, I’m not a trader. To be fair, I’ve only been in the game ~11 years, so it may happen someday, I’m not arrogant or foolish enough to believe it couldn’t happen. But I was taught that the best way to win in the stock market is to not lose (Buffet’s rule #1 and #2, his only rules). I believe this is some of the most under appreciated advice I see among many newer investors who start during a bull market and are confused when they get a reality check. Not gambling on hopes of future growth & faith in execution protects the investor from getting their head busted.

In the meantime, I’m excited to be able to start legitimately looking into some of the companies now that they’ve fallen back to earth.

Growth should always come at a reasonable price, as long as you’re investing and not speculating, and not lying to yourself about which of the two you’re doing.
Nice share and thanks for the robust review / discussion. You’re right, now that growth has fallen a lot, it’s much more interesting than in the last couple of years.
Add a comment…
🔥 💨 💰
Been interesting watching my 70 position portfolio be all red, or all green most days last week. Friday was really insane with so many positions down 4%-8%; entire portfolio combined for a 4.18% loss on on day (Friday). Those are my favorite days because I like to accumulate great companies at attractive prices, as a long term value investor.

The interesting part is that while the entire portfolio is RED, my cannabis stock is up 20% over the prior 5 days. I initially invested in a cannabis fund, then those clowns moved into all tobacco and “cannabis invested” conglomerates like Scott’s Miracle Grow, Constellation Brands, etc. so I narrowed my focus and found the 4-5 cannabis companies who are profitable or closest to profitability and demonstrating best growth/efficiency metrics.

Verano was my first choice. As a medical marijuana customer I have access to and use these products first hand. Verano has superior vapes and I love their execution. But as someone who adds small amounts frequently to my investments, these are over the counter and more expensive for me to accumulate as I do other investments. I will write a post soon about the few and only few companies that I would invest in in the cannabis space. But Verano was my number one choice. Not a bad 5 day run up but this is a longer term play for me.
post media
I’m always looking at Palantir, wondering why the hype. Just noticed they have more than 2 BILLION shares outstanding. This is something I just recently started paying attention to, but isn’t that a little high for a young company that’s not even profitable yet? At $1.74 B in TTM revenue, that’s less than $1/share😬I looked at a few other young growth companies and a few peers, but no similar company I see has issued near as many shares.

I’ve heard investors mention the ridiculous dilution of Salesforce, but they’re just under a billion shares outstanding, but at least they’re profitable. They’re generating revenue around $27 Billion and net income of $1 Billion.

Like I said, I just started paying attention to shares, dilution, buy backs, etc., so I’m asking. It seems like a huge red flag in my world.
Number of shares outstanding, in a vacuum, isn’t a red flag because the number of shares a company issues during IPO is arbitrary.

But in context for Palantir it is a red flag because they have diluted a lot since IPO. Shares outstanding have more than doubled.
On Seeking Alpha, I usually leave it on my portfolio, not one of my dozens of watchlists. So when I just logged in, and saw this, I almost fainted, then realized I was on the blockchain watchlist🤣🤣whew.
Good day to not be holding shitco Ppublic crypto companies.

I just went to look at my portfolio🤯not much better. Only bad thing is no extra capital to snatch up all the discounts.

Looks like the markets are having as bad of a day as I am🥲.
post mediapost media
Already have an account?