@wall_street_deebo

Eric Messenger's avatar

$23.6M follower assets

Self-taught investor. Developing objective mental models using metrics displaying clear correlation to outperformance. A progressive journey toward generational wealth. #investwithdeebo
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Stratosphere.io
I gave these guys a shout out the other day @ The Canadian Investor podcast; one of the better ones I’ve listened to. One of the guys founded Stratosphere.io when he couldn’t find the data he was looking for online. I love the free package of data they offer and am actually considering paying for premium content; something I’ve always refused to do.
This is another example of what I find so useful there. Rather than just showing me a decade of average analytics or financial metrics, they break down business segments better than any free source I’ve found.
As someone who has spent a decade developing sources to give me a quality overall snapshot, that I then use as one data point, they’re another strong tool in the utility belt. Somewhere I can spend 10-30 minutes and get quality insights.

I like as many sources as possible giving me unique analysis and data in easy to read graphs. Actionable, useful data.

Here’s a few examples of some of the data available free @ Stratosphere going back to 2012:
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Agree with you here on stratosphere! I am a user and enjoy the straight forward metrics and additional KPI’s they provide as well
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Worth the price?
Can anyone tell me why this used book is $299? Hoping someone has read it here.
I’m reading “The Triumph of Value Investing”, where Seth Klarman’s book was mentioned. I had no idea he’d written a book. Since he’s one of the men from Graham & Doddsville, I’d love to read anything he’s written. However, I usually get my books for $1-$5 thrift shopping. I’m not against paying full price for a book but $300 seems a little wild for a modern book. What’s with that price tag? I’ve seen some Graham classics for $200+, but they’re almost 100 years old.

And I see the price goes from $179-$2,250🤯
The reason is because only 5,000 official copies we're every printed. Book came out in 1991 and details Klarmans "Margin of Safety." Low supply, insane demand. Occasionally someone releases a reprint on kindle and it gets taken down in a few days. The book is also on my list to read at some point.
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Spectator Sport
I’m not much for short term action but I do watch daily just to see if I can add anything on bigger dips. Funny to see how the market acts to whatever catalysts it may be driving any particular action. My retail holdings all went like this today:

$BKE +4%

$SCVL +7% (my buy the dip candidate, up 20.6% since purchase)

$DDS +8%

$BBW +6%

$DKS +4%

$WSM +5%

$LULU was flat, held in kids’ custodial account (I’m a value investor)

My picks are value positions and mostly for the swing trade/shorter-term part of my portfolio; not one of my core holdings like Google or Microsoft. Positions I buy to hold, not forever, but until they reach a price closer to fair value and providing a sufficient ROI. I figure after tax Buffet numbers are a nice goal to shoot for. I always intend to hold for 1-3 years, until market sees the value, but sometimes it happens a little quicker than I expect. These positions are all up 20%-28% since purchase in May, June, and July, however, $WSM is the only retail I intend to hold long term currently, the rest I will be watching closely to sell the position at a nice gain. I’d rather be early than late, that’s usually one of the weaknesses of value investors. But I always remembered the quote I read early on that ends with “pigs get slaughtered”. I’d rather take a 28% gain in 40 days than wait on 40% or some other arbitrary number that I thought I should see.

Keeping this journal after the Covid rebound and subsequent correction will be a great tool for the future me. Knowing what I was thinking and when will be priceless.

It is fun to be a spectator and watch the market swing prices wildly up & down every quarter based on fears of recession, the joy of no recession after all, inflation, wars, etc.; all problems the market has faced before and things I don’t let affect my investment decisions. Watching entire industries swing almost 10% in a day shows the irrationality of the market; whether there are legitimate macro fears or not. History has proven problems are short term for excellent businesses. This is what makes it easier, IMO, to take advantage of. It seems the algorithmic bot trading and rise of day trading EVERYwhere, has made it easier for broad (longer-term) swing trading, driving the price irrationally high or low, creating a feedback loop of retail investors and bots chasing each other up or down.

I’ll continue to spectate most days rather than participate in the folly. I said my goal was Buffet returns; Buffet gained ~20% annually, I assume 28%-40% pre-tax gains should be sufficient to come close to that. I look at each position to meet that goal; if it happens in 2 months, it just gives me time to find another under valued position to compound my returns.

As for $WSM they will be in the Berkshire Hathaway wing of my portfolio. Excellent businesses I collect with impressive track records and long histories of execution, that I just occasionally check in on.
Credit Where It’s Due
I came across these guys while studying beginner content available on podcasts. One of them was a guest on the “Investing for Beginners” podcast, introduced me to his podcast there, and then the business he started too. I’ll provide a link to both because I think it’s quality common sense material. If you know Bert & Ernie, one of their voices will trigger flashbacks, but the material seems good so far.

The primary reason I am sharing his website and giving his business a shout out is because it is very difficult to find long-term historical trends of financial ratios that Buffett, Lynch, & Greenblatt tell me I should care about.

I started this journey dirt poor a decade ago and pride myself on finding information for free so that I can continue preaching to people that anyone can do this. You do not need money to make money in the stock market, outside of your investment capital. $0.50-$2.00 books from Goodwill will suffice. There is a fair amount of information available free for users and then obviously, if you want to be a paying customer, there is a pile of financial analytics. I analyze business performance and nothing else, so sites like this are a gold mine to me. Any fundamental investors will love the website and the podcasts good too🤙

The Canadian Investor


Stratosphere

Tools like this, as well as TIKR and Koyfin, are awesome for retail investors and at affordable prices :)
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What Lucky Timing🤷‍♂️
I posted stories about Coinbase a couple times recently, it’s the largest position in my portfolio. I literally just posted something 20 minutes ago that I’ve been working on this morning about some legitimate crypto projects to invest in. And mentioned several times how much more I trust Coinbase than other exchanges.
They jumped 20% yesterday so that had a significant impact on my portfolio. But I headed over to SeekingAlpha to see what was up this morning after I posted the CommonStock and saw that it’s up 30% already today. This is obviously some runaway algorithmic trading foolishness. But it had a Hella impact on my portfolio and it’s really tempting me to sell this position because I know it’s going to drop significantly over the next couple days and I can buy back in at $70 or lower. My problem is I don’t know jack shit about technical analysis, I just see the price bouncing all over the place and the more it happens within a relatively easy to scalp 10%-20% gains, the more reliable I tend to believe it is. As a long-term fundamental value investor, I don’t do a lot of swing trading. I do buy really undervalued stocks and sell them when they return to FairValue. Sometimes it takes a week, sometimes it takes three months; so I definitely feel like a traitor sometimes. But with Coinbase I think I have more long-term faith than just selling it at $106. So I think my prior two articles have convinced me to just hold onto my position, and continue adding when it sees more significant dips of >10% like I have done all year.
Just sharing real time thoughts of an amateur portfolio manager😉

I actually sold my Daqo position for >80% gain, holding approx. April-July, maybe they just track current holding that is best trade.

Short term results are luck, can’t wait to see these long term results 12-18 years down the road, when I can start bragging🤣
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Fundamental Crypto Investments
When I initially got into crypto, everyone around me was in Shiba Inu & Dogecoin. After 15 minutes of due diligence, NOT including Musk & Cuban’s Twitter accounts, I knew those were not legitimate investments I was taught to make by the Buffet/Graham/Lynch style of analysis. I tried to utilize fundamental and qualitative analysis to the best of my ability in the crypto space. While tho gs have been turbulent, there are 10 or so projects I still feel comfortable accumulating and holding long-term. I always traded my crypto, not invested, so I’ve never been holding much for major crashes, have been extremely lucky to see some 20%-30% ROI months (not years), and avoiding the 3 catastrophic losses that have happened since I got involved.

Now that prices have crashed so low, to realistic levels, I feel confident buying for long-term positions. Buying Axie @ $185 early on was nuts, buying it for $15 today is also nuts, in reverse, as is usual behavior for investors. Too high, then too low. So I wanted to share a few clips of some of my favorite “real” projects to look at as legitimate investments (not theoretical, future problem solving projects; but real, revenue generating, active projects).

I’ve mentioned $CRO.X and $AXS.X , two of my favorite crypto investments and the only two I’ve added in the prior few months. Others I’ve started accumulating again at current prices are $AAVE.X , $MKR.X , $UNI.X , and $ETH.X 2.0 (1.0 been staked awaiting conversion). As Some of the crypto DeFi platforms failed, and filed bankruptcy, projects like Aave & Compound were paid before human creditors due to the execution of smart contracts; demonstrates the sustainability of the idea & use (if Ethereum BILLION # isn’t enough). Also have added two more speculative positions; $GALA.X a gaming ecosystem and $CHZ.X , a coin that represents voter/fan rights for sports organizations. Chilliz has already been working with European soccer organization‘s for a couple years and has deals signed and NFT collections created and sold with the NBA and the UFC. Very small market cap coin, still relatively unknown; fan is short for fanatic😉

Here’s a couple articles mentioning the revenue generated by some of the projects mentioned. I understand revenues in crypto space are not like revenues in the stock market. I have no claim to future earnings and cannot analyze these investments the same way. But if I am going to invest in crypto, I want to see real, tangible revenues and a management/developer team who meets their goals as laid out in the white paper and understands how to generate revenue with a Blockchain. I was sort of blown away that the simple lessons taught to me by Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch were so successful when analyzing & investing in crypto projects. The only thing is you really need to have confidence in your convictions. The crypto market is much more volatile and you really have to believe in what you’re investing in to be able to hold on for the ride. I am not a technology expert, so I cannot dive into some of these projects as they are still way too complicated. But ones I can see and use, that are growing and seeing adoption, I can feel much more confident in. Crypto is still less than 2% of my entire portfolio so it’s not like I’m taking any real risk here.

My analysis took me to these companies in the TTM, just wanted to find a couple articles with some numbers for you:

Here’s a link to entire Block.co article


Link to Motley Fool article


And links to the two speculative positions mentioned


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Coinbase is literally the only exchange that I trust now, so I am very comfortable having Coinbase as the largest position (will be too 4 when a couple other catch up) in my portfolio. I’ve used a dozen wallets and exchanges, centralized and decentralized in the case of exchanges. Binance is crooked, Voyager filed bankruptcy, Crypto.com is my primary trading account/wallet combo, Kraken & Gemini are the only other exchanges I keep money now (outside Coinbase), both U.S. & more transparent that most exchanges. Just the fact that Coinbase is a public company & the SEC will demand more transparency than we have with any other exchange, makes me more comfortable in my position.

If anyone was going to start dabbling in crypto, I would take that advice. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the U.S. exchanges are not filing bankruptcy, they are held to a different standard than some. I found exchanges & wallets who were domiciled in Malta, the Cayman Islands, and other tax havens where you’re not even able to invest without blocking your IP address so they can’t tell you’re in the states. People playing there were asking for trouble.

I don’t think crypto is nearly as risky as everyone seems to believe it is. As it is with Buffet disciples, I see risk as a lack of knowledge, not price volatility. So the volatility doesn’t scare me. As soon as I got in, I could see that this industry was dominated by traders and algorithms. The price swings are 30%-120% daily, for reputable projects. So I think the opportunity that exists for value & fundamentals focused investors is even larger in the crypto space than the stock market, if you can find the actual projects that are worth investing in. And if you believe that the market is a voting machine in the short term, and a weighing machine in the long term; it’s even more lopsided in the crypto Industry.

Again, this is most definitely the speculative part of my portfolio. I’m not a Blockchain professional or technology analyst. I’m just a guy with a brain that downloads all this and tries it. If it’s useful, adoptable, easy to use, has real world use case,& provides safety of capital/transparency (in the case of wallets & exchanges), then I think it’s a relatively safe bet to see adoption in the future.

I expected all the new traders to flake out of Robin Hood at the first crash, and that is exactly what happened. The same thing happened with E*TRADE & retail investors back in the day. I’m not sure why this was such a surprise. When a bunch of people jump in and start trading cryptocurrency‘s, options, and with margin; that is not going to end well🤣

Use your brain, both sides. This is an art, not a science. If it was a science, everybody with an algorithm would be winning.
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China doin it
Crazy to see China have more Fortune 500 companies than America.
Why's it crazy? Seemed predictable tbh...Complacency and pretentiousness here, versus a massive population that builds skyscrapers in roughly 7 minutes there. I'd say it was a layup of a bet
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My 2 Kids & I: June & July Additions
Lots of volatility all over the markets. As many stocks as I have now that I’m publicly sharing a portfolio, I can’t catch the easy bounces I used to never miss. But here’s the best performers in each of our portfolio’s currently. All of these stocks were purchased in June or July 2022. Hard to hold onto easy gains that are lucky jumps (to someone who doesn’t time things) but I’m trying to be a patient long term holder. But what was successful early on was grabbing those quick 10%-30% bounces in 1-3 months. Doesn’t seem like much but if you compound 18% quarterly (random quarterly performance pulled from top ranks), it comes to almost 100% annually. If you compound 10% per month, it comes out around 300% annually. We’ll see which method works best; the easy swing trade/flips or the buy and hold, for me personally. This is why I have multiple accounts; several 401-k & IRA’s, so if I mess things up it’s not ruinous.

I had my kids start picking their own stocks to diversify our portfolios in their custodial accounts from my own. They picked $AAPL, $SBUX, $NFLX & $LULU. So the stocks they picked a couple weeks ago are smacking me around already. Should’ve let them pick all their own stocks all along.

What’s funny is that the stocks I chose in my portfolio are the biggest losers currently. The stocks my system picked are kickin’ ass. I wanted a mechanical system to remove my emotion. Seems to be doing well so far.

All purchases were made between June 3 & July 27. The two companies I blacked out, apam Research and Target, were bought in May.

First 3 picks are my portfolios top performers right now, bottom two picks are son & daughter’s portfolio.

Daughter chose Starbucks

Son chose Lululemon

For all the doom and gloom I hear about in the stock market today, these returns don’t look too bad; for positions less than 60 days old. Tempting g not to flip ‘em like I use to.
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Howard Marks: I Beg to Differ
This podcast was just released today. Secrets to wealth are on the last 5 minutes 😉

“I believe most investors have their eyes on the wrong ball; one quarters, or one years performance, is meaningless at best and a harmful distraction at worst”

He also mentions adding to your positions that are underperforming, which is exactly what I do, and why I find it easier to invest during recessions than bull markets.

In case you aren’t familiar; somehow I had never heard of Howard Marks until about 3 months ago, even though I thought I’d studied most of the greats. His performance, for the last decade relative to all the others compared on this site (from Dalio & Greenblatt, to Yackrman & Gates) is insane. Here’s Marks’ performance against my mentor and some other famous/successful money managers.

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Howard Marks: Dare to be Great
When seeing Buffet’s track record beside market performance, I noticed what really put him ahead was avoiding catastrophic losses. Many years he beats the market, but the real outperformance comes from only losing 5% while the market loses 20%. Howard Marks touched on that in this memo and it’s gold.

“I like caution in my money managers. I believe, in many cases, the avoidance of losses and terrible years is more easily achieved than repeated greatness. And thus, risk control is more likely to create a solid foundation for a superior long-term. Investing scared, requiring good value and a substantial margin for error and being conscious of what you don’t know and can’t control are the hallmarks of the best investor’s I know”

It’s the reason for my individual success. I buy value stocks with a margin of safety. Avoiding massive losses keeps me from having to make up too much ground. Here’s a screenshot from TipRanks to demonstrate the idea:

4041 is the same portfolio I have linked here; you can see while the average TipRanks portfolio lost ~19% in April, I went sideways. Usually not a good thing, but I’ll take sideways over a 20 drawdown all day.

Avoiding losing makes winning so much easier. So overpriced growth stocks with lofty valuations and companies without earnings go straight to the “no thank you” pile.
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