Spot the next stock to buy with one click!
Looking for an undervalued stock? Use our valuation screener to spot outliers with low PE ratios. Current depressed stocks include $EBAY $NRG $PARA $NUE $MRNA $PHM $F and $DHI.

NRG Energy $NRG is a clear outlier, trading at a PE ratio of 2.2x and a market cap to revenue ratio of 0.3x.

post media
$NUE and other commodities-linked stocks are stocks to be wary of when buying them on cheap valuation. Usually commodities players are at their peak when they're at their cheapest.
Add a comment…
Earnings Dump, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales: Daily Contrarian, April 26
Good morning contrarians! Stock futures are wobbling a bit ahead of a major day for earnings, with $MSFT and $GOOG among the headliners…

We’ve already had several reports already, most of them positive: $UPS $GE $PEP $DHI among them.

Read all about it here:

Homebuilders under Pressure - looking to eventually B&H
With rates rising, and the 30year mortgage rates shooting up over the past month, the homebuilders have been under pressure.

The idea is obviously that it will get too expensive for people to buy homes.

With inflation surging, people will also be pressured in terms of other expenses, i.e., most of their income will go towards basic necessities and it will be more challenging to accommodate higher mortgage payments.

Nevertheless, when I looked at the industry sometime last year, asset prices where going up not only because of the stimulus (and people having more money) but more because there was a genuine shortage of housing in the US market.

After the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, and the collapse in the US housing market, the level of investment in housing reduced significantly. It took some time for the market to recover, obviously. And that's left the market with fewer homes that required.

Demand, on the hand, has been increasing because of the increase in the Millennial population who are now becoming first time home buyers. This has been further exacerbated by:
  • Low Mortgage Costs
  • Overall increase in spending power because of savings in other areas
  • Work From Home - leading people to either buy second homes or move to the suburbs since they can work anywhere
  • The Great Resignation - People quitting their jobs and moving out of busy towns and apartment

This has pushed home prices to new highs.

For the longest time I held $NAIL, and made a decent return on it. Sold out earlier this year as it started to retreat. But, I do want to go long one of these three homebuilders (or all three) once I feel the market has settled a bit. All three have EV/EBITDA below 5x and LTM P/E multiples below 7x.

Here’s the 5-year total return for $DHI, $TOL and $LEN.
post mediapost media
Always love your detailed breakdowns of Macrotrends Ayesha. I know that @strategicinvestors viewed this in light of his holdings in $ITB and will enjoy reading this too.

Would it be correct to say that rising inflation makes homebuilding more expensive and that rising mortgage rates makes home owning more expensive, and thus reduces supply and demand for home building and buying at the same time?
View 1 more comment
Good morning contrarians! Another day of gains yesterday was followed with Google ($GOOG) beating earnings estimates and announcing a 20-for-1 stock split. AMD ($AMD.X) also beat estimates and issued a strong sales outlook for the year. Those stocks rallied big time overnight, both up over 10%.

On the losing side of last night’s earnings were Starbucks (SBUX) and PayPal ($PYPL), the latter down 17%.

It’s another major day for earnings. It’s another major day for earnings. ThermoFisher Scientific ($TMO), Boston Scientific ($BSX), Humana ($HUM), and Marathon Petroleum ($MPC) have already reported. All but HUM beat on top- and bottom-line estimates and those stocks are moving higher in the pre-market. Later this morning we will hear from AbbVie ($ABBV) and DR Horton ($DHI).

After the close at 1600 we’ll get T-Mobile ($TMUS), Qualcomm ($QCOM), Meta Platforms, the company formerly known as Facebook ($FB), and Spotify ($SPOT). MetLife ($MET) and McKesson ($MCK) also report at some point today.

What else we’re watching today:
Upcoming Earnings Calendar (Jan 31st- Feb 4th)
Hey guys!

Here's the earnings calendar for next week! Here's what I'm interested in:

  • $XOM - Insights on the global oil market.
  • $GOOG - Strength of the digital ad market + growth of YouTube (since $NFLX slowed down).
  • $FB - Comments on their strategy to monetize Whatsapp (I don't expect any, but one can hope).
  • $SPOT - They recently expanded to other markets, so maybe they can maintain accelerated growth, unlike Netflix.
  • $AMZN - AWS and Advertising segment growth + impact of the increase in 3P fees.

What are you looking forward to next week?

If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

MON:


TUE:


WED:


THU:


FRI:
post media
Key Data Points on Home Builders
I recently made the homebuilder theme my biggest investment. I'm invested in many stocks across the sector.

Yesterday, $KBH reported earnings and it appears the market reacted positively after hours. The housing market is being driven by high demand and constrained supply. Homebuilders are priced as cyclical stocks but I don't think we are anywhere close to the top of the cycle. The market is underestimating the drivers of this cycle (demographic + supply shocks). On top of that, most homebuilders have repaired their balance sheet and have much less capital tied into the land than in the previous cycle.


Data Points:
$KBH reported yesterday after the market closed.
$MTH on January 26 (after market close)
$PHM on February 1st (before market open)
$MDC on February 1st (before market open)
$DHI on February 2nd (before market open)
$TOL on February 21st (before market open)
$LEN on March 14th (before market open)*
$NVR on April 19th (before market open)

Economic Data of Interest
Jan 19th (8:30am) - Housing Starts
Jan 19th (8:30am) - Building Permits
Jan 20th (10:00am) - Existing Home Sales
post media
Mega week for earnings! (Nov 8-12)
Here are featured earnings we are paying attention to @ Fincredible.

The ones I'm paying close attention are:

$PYPL - Want to learn more about their plans for 'super app', integration of BNPL and if any color on rumored $PINS acqn, which is now dead (or never was there). I own some $PYPL

$PLTR - I think I'm the only non-bull on this company. I'm unsure of their technological prowess and confused by their corporate governance. I don't own and have no plans, but just curious.

$COIN - I have no exposure in crypto except via a managed investment on Titan, but I think this is a great way to continue to learn and try and get smarter

$U - I like this company a lot. I'm particularly interested in their non-gaming revenues which I think is a larger TAM. Selfishly, I'm hoping this stock falls after earnings (Sorry for the many who own it) so I can buy on the dip, but not expecting it.

$SOFI $AFRM - I view both of these innovative companies but are overpriced, and don't have as much moat as people give them credit. Yet always interested to hear about them to be proven wrong, and given my investments in $PYPL, banks, and various private fintechs

$EHTH - not Ethereum, but eHealth. Given they fired most of the management team recently, always interested in what the tone/focus of the call is.

BTW as of this week, for S&P 500 companies (plus other popular stocks) you can not only play the calls in real-time at Fincredible, but also read the transcript and monitor specific keywords in real-time. Check it out - https://app.fincredible.ai/latest-earnings

MON

TUE

WED

THU

post media
Next
Commonstock is a social network that amplifies the knowledge of the best investors, verified by actual track records for signal over noise. Community members can link their existing brokerage accounts and share their real time portfolio, performance and trades (by percent only, dollar amounts never shared). Commonstock is not a brokerage, but a social layer on top of existing brokerages helping to create more engaged and informed investors.