Giro Lino's avatar
$2.8m follower assets
Goldman Bull on $MELI
Irma, from $GS, doubles down on $MELI call. Yet, she's not updating her views on Pago. I believe she's holding it due to lower stock prices. IMO, bull.
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Financially they appear to be in a very strong position, but the competitive nature of e-commerce always puts me off a bit when I look at $MELI
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John Neff’s Screen Results
John Neff, turns out, is a lot like me. Likes buying quality companies when they’re undervalued and out of favor. Makes sense to me. So he had a method/equation he used to find investable companies. If Total Return (earnings growth + dividend yield) divided by the price to earnings ratio was at least 2:1, he took interest. Using numbers provided by Simply Wall Street, here is a list of quality companies whose growth + yield are more than 2x the current P/E ratio. All are profitable and relatively stable, out of favor and relatively cheap. Obviously, do your own research. I just want to share some of the results to offer up new ideas to anyone looking to spread their wings.
Here are the results, I do own some of these FYI.
I share my portfolio, but to save anyone time, I currently own $MATX , $WIRE , $BCC , $MDC , and held $LU is the past, but it appreciated like 30% in a week immediately after I bought it (100% luck to happen that quickly), that’s a sell in my book. Gotta remember to not be greedy, pigs get slaughtered. If I can make 20%-30% in a month, I’ll take it and move on. Too many opportunities to make money to be in love with any stock.
I hope that provides some new companies for a few value investors. Enjoy!
Remember, if you like charts, you’ll hate most of these stocks😉I go against the crowds momentum, hence the success.
On a side note, $MATX & $WIRE are showing up on lots of my different quality screens. Those are the two you may want to evaluate first😉
Let me know what you like or hate, be sharing one a week for a while.
PS: I mentioned I use ZERO forward looking anything; however, to build Neff’s screen, I had to use 12 month FWD earnings estimates to estimate total return. I reduced analyst earnings estimates by 10% to increase my margin of safety further and ensure estimates were conservative. This will be the ONLY time forward looking anything will be used in a post of mine🤙
Giro Lino's avatar
$2.8m follower assets
This is very interesting. According to $GS, equities had one of the sharpest 2-week sell-offs outside recent bear markets. It certainly doesn't feel like that...yet
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Credit Markets and Financial Conditions
There has been a reasonable degree of damage beneath the surface on a stock-level; credit markets, however, have not shown the same degree of uncertainty.

In an interview with Bloomberg TV, former New York Fed President Bill Dudley mentioned the lack of cooperation by financial markets; in other words: the Fed isn't seeing the type of sea change it would like to see in order for a reverse wealth effect to kick in.

Just how much the Fed will be able to tighten financial conditions will likely depend on market signals such as the GS Financial Conditions Index and Corporate High Yield OAS.

If we were to look at specific stocks that are highly sensitive to credit conditions: homebuilders, do-it-yourself outlets ($HD $LOW), banks ($JPM, $C, $GS) as well as private equity transactions financed via debt offers -- there are many more.

I hesitate to paint a doom & gloom scenario; it is, however, valuable to keep an eye on the tone of credit markets and be aware of sub-surface dynamics.

Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index

Corporate High Yield OAS
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I know @austin recently opened up a $LOW position with a strong case, and has also discussed $HD. I have no skin in the game currently but I think the backdrop conditions of home buying, building/renovating, mixed with recession fears and credit market conditions makes for an especially interesting story.

I feel as though it is either an excellent time to buy these names or a horrific time to buy these names with little in-between haha. Would be shocked at a horizontal move in this sector over the next 12-18 months. Excited to see this one play out
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Stocks patterns post Earnings - Week April 11th
The earnings season starts this week! Here are the reports I will look into and how the stocks performed historically, 1 day after the earnings release.

My favorite earning plays this week are $MS and $BLK.

JP Morgan $JPM - April 13th before the open
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = -0.6% 🔴
  • Average price move = + / - 2.4%
  • % of positive returns = 42% 🔴

Blackrock $BLK - April 13th before the open
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = +1.2% 🟢
  • Average price move = + / - 2.9%
  • % of positive returns = 67% 🟢

Delta Air Lines $DAL - Apr 13th before the open
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = -0.8% 🔴
  • Average price move = + / - 2.5%
  • % of positive returns = 42% 🔴

Fastenal $FAST - April 13th before the open
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = +1.4% 🟢
  • Average price move = + / - 4.0%
  • % of positive returns = 42% 🔴

Bed Bath & Beyond $BBBY - Apr 13th before the open
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = -3.0%🔴
  • Average price move = +/- 14%⚠️
  • % of positive returns = 42%🔴

Morgan Stanley $MS - April 14th before the open
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = +1.5% 🟢
  • Average price move = + / - 2.0%
  • % of positive returns = 75% 🟢

Goldman Sachs $GS - April 14th before the open
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = -0.4% 🔴
  • Average price move = + / - 2.0%
  • % of positive returns = 58% 🟢

United Health $UNH - April 14th before the open
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = +1.1% 🟢
  • Average price move = + / - 3.0%
  • % of positive returns = 58% 🟢

Wells Fargo $WFC - April 14th before the open
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = -1.7% 🔴
  • Average price move = + / - 4%
  • % of positive returns = 33% 🔴

Citigroup $C - April 14th before the open
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = -1.6% 🔴
  • Average price move = + / - 2.3%
  • % of positive returns = 25% 🔴
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What to watch for the week of 4/11/22
Are you prepared to take on the markets this week? If not, here is a graphic that I created of some of the most anticipated potential catalysts for the week beginning April 11th. Hopefully this can help you navigate your investing and trading decisions. Feel free to save this post for reference. Let me know what’s on your watchlist in the comments. Follow my page so that you never miss any upcoming scheduled market events. If you find this helpful and would like to view more of my work, consider subscribing to my Patreon. Link in my bio. $SPY $F $WFC $QQQ $ALLY $BBBY $KMX $PGR $C $GS $MS $JPM
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Two Special Situation Ideas Trading at Under 5x Earnings
Atento $ATTO is on takeover watch. Last week, a 9% ownership group filed a 13D, demanded the Company undertake a sale process and gave notice of a forthcoming proxy battle. The Company trades at 5x earnings vs. 10x for peers. Goldman Sachs $GS has been reportedly hired to explore strategic alternatives. Private equity currently owns 2/3 of the public float.
To learn more, check out the 13D filing from the 13D filer, Kyma Capital: https://www.bamsec.com/filing/108514622001258?cik=1606457

Lazydays $LAZY is trading around $20 / share after rejecting a $25 / share takeover bid from B Riley $RILY. The Company trades at only 2x earnings (trailing and forward). Lazydays' Chairman is a Managing Partner at Coliseum Capital, which owns a signification position in the Company's high-yield preferred stock (dwarfing its position in the common stock). Kanen Wealth Management is complaining about a potential conflict of interest. Read more from its press release here: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/03/21/2406884/0/en/Kanen-Wealth-Management-Calls-for-Lazydays-Inc-to-form-a-Transaction-Committee-and-Further-Evaluate-M-A-Proposals.html

These are exactly the types of situations I profile weekly in my free newsletter. Check it out if you're interested in learning more: www.thespecialsituationreport.com. Cheers!
Commonstock is a social network that amplifies the knowledge of the best investors, verified by actual track records for signal over noise. Community members can link their existing brokerage accounts and share their real time portfolio, performance and trades (by percent only, dollar amounts never shared). Commonstock is not a brokerage, but a social layer on top of existing brokerages helping to create more engaged and informed investors.