New Lows Today @ 10am
Visit highsandlows.substack.com to see more
post mediapost media
$U $BIRD $OLO Earnings: What I'm Looking For
Unity Software Inc. ($U) - Reporting earnings this afternoon (5/10)

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Currently trading at 15.2 trailing sales and 8.7 forward sales which sounds expensive. However, It's slightly on the cheap side on my Price-to-Sales-to-Growth ratio at 0.20 (accurately priced is 0.25). Will they maintain 40% revenue growth and keep the PSG in the range it's at?
  • Net profit margin (I guess it's more accurate to call it a net loss margin) has gotten worse each of the past 2 years. FCF worsened as well. Curious to see what direction this goes. I would guess they'll both get worse before better.
  • Operate revenue growth >50%.
  • DBNER >140%
  • Customers generating $100,000 revenue >1,100.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 27th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.32 years
Number of purchases since: 1
Annualized return: (90.7%)
Annualized $SPY return: (30.0%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (45.1%)

Allbirds, Inc. ($BIRD) - Reporting earnings this afternoon (5/10)
This is a company that I'm partially blinded by my love of the product. Allbirds are incredible shoes. I own 5 pairs. I still think $LULU should by them. Seems like a match made in heaven.

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Really need to see strong revenue growth. 2021 grew at 26.5%. Really hoping for 30%+ in Q1.
  • Would really appreciate if management would begin providing digital vs store revenue breakdown along with shoe vs apparel and men vs women.
  • Just curious to see what management's comments on are the conference call.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 22nd highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.51 years
Number of purchases since: 2
Annualized return: (92.5%)
Annualized $SPY return: (21.6%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (38.3%)

Olo Inc. ($OLO) - Reporting earnings this afternoon (5/10)
This was my play on the food delivery trend. I hate the food delivery apps ($DASH $UBER $GRUB whatever, they all suck and are predatory to their "contractors" and the restaurants). Olo though is just SaaS for restaurants. I'm getting pummeled in my position but I remain cautiously bullish.

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Annualized revenue growth of 67% since 2018 is nothing to sneeze at. Need to keep it up to justify their somehow still high P/S ratios. PSG is cheap on my scale though at 0.10.
  • Gross profit margins got worse in 2021. Get it back above 80%, please.
  • Active location count growth >83,000.
  • Average revenue per unit >$525.
  • NRR >120%
  • Not sure of management will provide this metric but a modules per location update would be lovely.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 12th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 1.14 years
Number of purchases since: 1
Annualized return: (61.1%)
Annualized $SPY return: 2.4%
Annualized $QQQ return: (4.1%)
I know the market can go absolutely anywhere over the short term, but just saw this visual for the first time and felt like a dip-buying genius.

Just because something is wrong doesn't mean it can't make you feel good :D
post media
Heck yeah! I think it's always worth letting yourself feel at least a little good when the initial move out of the gate is positive. Obviously don't let it get to your head, because like you said, short term it can go anywhere. But hey, its nice. Especially in this market!

Here's the same chart of your LuLu trades Zoomed into the three month timeframe. All 8 trades are below where $LULU is at now.

Quick happy dance? I think yes.
View 3 more comments
$CROX has industry leading FCF Margins
Crocs beats out fashion giants like $LULU and $NKE.
The company's FCF margins come way out on top when you only compare it to shoe companies like $SHOO $WWW $SKX $BIRD $DECK
Should note that FCF margins may drop over the next twelve months due to supply chain challenges, like increased shipping costs and cost of raw materials.
post media
Paul Cerro's avatar
$18.3m follower assets
Fashion resale market a big opportunity
The news: On Earth Day, April 22, lululemon athletica will expand its Like New trade-in and resale program nationwide.

  • The program, which is launching after a two-state pilot run last year, allows shoppers to trade in lululemon clothing such as pants, shorts, and jackets for an egift card. The retailer is also featuring an assortment of gently used lululemon items online.
  • A number of companies, including Another Tomorrow, Cuyana, Moda Operandi, Target, and Urban Outfitters, have also recently launched resale initiatives by teaming up with a partner, such as technology provider Trove Recommerce, luxury bag and accessories reseller Rebag, or online consignment store thredUP.

Expect this year to be a banner year for online fashion resale, with year-over-year sales growth of 46.6% reaching $15.50 billion thanks in part to more prominent retailers entering the space.

  • Forecasts project resale’s share of retail ecommerce apparel and accessories sales will rise from 6.0% in 2021 to 10.0% in 2025.

The news:
  • The program, which is launching after a two-state pilot run last year, allows shoppers to trade in lululemon clothing such as pants, shorts, and jackets for an egift card. The retailer is also featuring an assortment of gently used lululemon items online.
  • A number of companies, including Another Tomorrow, Cuyana, Moda Operandi, Target, and Urban Outfitters $URBN, have also recently launched resale initiatives by teaming up with a partner, such as technology provider Trove Recommerce, luxury bag and accessories reseller Rebag, or online consignment store thredUP $TDUP.

More on this: Expect this year to be a banner year for online fashion resale, with year-over-year sales growth of 46.6% reaching $15.50 billion thanks in part to more prominent retailers entering the space.
  • Forecast projects resale’s share of retail ecommerce apparel and accessories sales will rise from 6.0% in 2021 to 10.0% in 2025.

A focus on sustainability: Online fashion resale benefits from consumers’ growing interest in sustainability—particularly among younger consumers.
  • Nearly 50% of millennials and 38.4% of Gen Z shoppers consider sustainability “very important,” per a 2021 Composed and MaCher survey.
  • The growth in online fashion resale will be driven in part by the growing discretionary incomes of younger consumers, as well as a flood of retailers entering the space. That means there are more used goods available online to attract consumers to resale.
  • Resale platforms also benefit from flywheel effects, as buyers become sellers and vice versa.
  • Expecting annual average sales per buyer via online fashion resale marketplaces will more than double between 2021 and 2025.

The brand advantage: The initiatives by retailers such as lululemon $LULU can reassure consumers that the items they purchase are authentic and of a high quality. $REAL
  • That gives brands an advantage over peer-to-peer marketplaces, said Sky Canaves, eMarketer principal analyst at Insider Intelligence. “Brands can more easily gain consumer trust by guaranteeing the authenticity and condition of their secondhand offerings,” she said. “Resale can also improve relationships with consumers over the long term if brands can offer a consistent shopper experience for both new and used goods.”

The big takeaway: The resale market offers an enticing opportunity for brands to demonstrate their sustainability bona fides at the same time they’re opening up new revenue streams.
post mediapost media
JOLTS, Consumer Confidence: Daily Contrarian, March 29
Good morning contrarians! Stock futures are up a bit after another day of gains which saw tech stocks continue their rebound. The Nasdaq was up 1.3% yesterday to lead major indexes in the U.S.

As of 0630, small caps are leading things with the Russell 2000 up 0.7%. Dow Industrials, S&P 500, and Nasdaq are up about 0.3%. European indexes are seeing strong gains with the CAC in Paris up 2%.

Bonds are continuing to sell off, with the yield on the 2-year up 4 basis points to 2.43%. The 10-year yield is up 3bps to 2.51%.

The bounce in small caps and continued selling in bonds tells us today could be another day of risk-on. This would be the fourth straight day of gains for the S&P.

You may be hearing about yield curve inversion. The 5-year yield rose past the 30-year yesterday, the first time this has happened since 2006. But a lot of that is just media angling for attention as the 2-year/10-year spread remains the more important metric. That spread is narrowing but is not yet inverted.

JOLTS and consumer confidence at 1000. Case/Shiller home prices at 0900. $MKC reports before the open at 0930. $LULU, $CHWY, $MU, and $RH after the close at 1600.

Don’t forget about Russia-Ukraine too. Meetings between the two sides start today in Turkey, but it’s been awhile since the conflict moved markets.

Stocks patterns post Earnings - Week March 28th
The earnings season for this quarter is close to an end. Here are the reports I will look into this "light" week and how the stocks performed historically 1 day after the earnings release. My favorite earning plays this week are $MU and $BNTX

If you find these charts useful, let me know which stocks would you be like to see for next week!

Micron Technology ($MU) - Mar 29th after the close
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = +2.0% 🟢
  • Average price move = + / - 7%
  • % of positive returns = 58% 🟢

Lululemon $LULU - Mar 29th after the close
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = +0.5% 🟢
  • Average price move = + / - 6%
  • % of positive returns = 42% 🔴

Chewy $CHWY - Mar 29th after the close
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = -4.4% 🔴
  • Average price move = + / - 6%
  • % of positive returns = 18% 🔴

BioNTech $BNTX Mar 30th before the open.
1-day performance in the past 9 quarters:
  • Average returns = +2.5% 🟢
  • Average price move = + / - 7%
  • % of positive returns = 56% 🟢

Walgreens $WBA - Mar 31st before the open.
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = -1.4% 🔴
  • Average price move = + / - 6%
  • % of positive returns = 50%

post mediapost media
$LULU Brand Loyalty
In 2019, (pre-pandemic) $LULU sales per sq foot were roughly five times of competitor $GPS Athleta. I think this stat shows Lululemon's competitive advantage in their brand loyalty.
Vuori has been taking some market share from $LULU but otherwise I'd agree that Lulu is the cornerstone of athleisure
View 11 more comments
Commonstock is a social network that amplifies the knowledge of the best investors, verified by actual track records for signal over noise. Community members can link their existing brokerage accounts and share their real time portfolio, performance and trades (by percent only, dollar amounts never shared). Commonstock is not a brokerage, but a social layer on top of existing brokerages helping to create more engaged and informed investors.