Dividend Portfolio Update 📉📉
Below is a paraphrase of the full portfolio update and market review article I write weekly. Click here for a full portfolio with more statistics, an economic review, plus a break down of all my trades (which you can see in my Commonstock profile as well).

Market Review

"This week I was out on vacation but still managed to monitor the market and make some buys. The S&P fell 3.1% this week following more disappointing corporate updates and data that shakes potential economic growth. The Nasdaq was down 3.8% for the week followed by the Dow which was down 2.9%.

Consumer staples and consumer discretionary segments were hit particularly hard this week as many retailers provided cautious outlooks due to cost pressures and supply chain concerns. Walmart ($WMT), Target ($TGT), and Ross Stores ($ROST) were the main players here, expect to see more of this next week as more earnings reports are published. My eyes will be on Best Buy ($BBY) who had a particularly rough week following the poor performance of these retailers.

On the other hand, utilities, health care, and energy sectors ended the week green, if only by a little. There was some rebound actions throughout the week pushed mainly by a contrarian approach to our potentially oversold market with a BofA survey showing that cash levels of fund managers are at their highest since 9/11 (6.1%).

The market barely stayed out of bear market territory this week amid growth concerns fueled by stubborn inflation, supply chain issues, and a number of economic data releases that were relatively disappointing.

The Federal Reserve Chair Powell spoke on inflation and said that the Fed will be more aggressive with rate hikes if inflation doesn’t come down in an obvious way. All eyes are on inflation and that will continue to be the driving narrative behind the market’s performance.

Portfolio

To date, I have invested $8,980 into the account, the total value of all positions plus any cash on hand is $8,901.17. That’s a mere loss of $78.83 for a total return of -0.88%. The account is down $142.75 for the week which is a 1.58% loss.

Below is a table of everything we are invested in so far. There you can see my number of shares, shares bought through dividend reinvestments, average cost, gains, and more. The tickers in green are positions that I bought shares in this week.

Dividends

This week we received only one dividend. $1.44 from Texas Instruments ($TXN)

In my portfolio, all positions have dividend reinvestment enabled. I don’t hold onto the dividend, I don’t try to time the reinvestment, I just let my broker do it automatically. All dividends were reinvested.

Dividends received for 2022: $118.55

Portfolio’s Lifetime Dividends: $141.47"
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Sachiv's avatar
$421.1k follower assets
Dividends đź’°
I don’t invest just for the income, but I like solid capital allocators. Each company ⬇️ has great OCF/FCF and they look like will have this consistently overtime. The resilience of moats look strong! I’m wRy of high yield cos because I’ve noticed some to be very cyclical (oil & gas for example), but I’m open to learn which industries I should be looking at for both capital growth and small income streams!

$ACN $0.97 / share 1.33% yield
$TXN $1.15 / share 2.65% yield
$ASML $3.89 / share 1.12% yield
High yield is always a concern of mine, first question is always "why is it so high", and the answer is seldom great.
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Sachiv's avatar
$421.1k follower assets
Cash generation
What big opportunities will reveal themself in the next 3-6 months- when I say big, I mean where you are willing to put in 10% of your entire investable amount within a short period, and don’t mind waiting out for an economic cycle to play out and multiples to expand like they did in 2020-2021.

I’m watching for drops in couple of companies across multiple sectors and growth rates. Names include $TXN $SIVB $TSLA $NVDA $TTD, just to name a few. Some have stable returns and yields, some are high growth with income, and some have strong relationships that enable high beta growth vs the economy and should be invested when things look bleakest. I have added some stakes last weak, but I don’t believe things look quite so bad just yet…

I don’t like watching too many names. I would say 10-15 names are sufficient if you know them (and the industry) well, and have an updated checklist on each of them and their competition.

I’m keeping a 30-35% cash position while waiting…

Thoughts?

PS - I should add this post is an evolution of my thinking from my learnings by losing a LOT of money by not listening to many many amazing posters on fintwit and various substacks. Rather than be 100% buy and hold, it would be wise to CONSIDER a part of both the speculative(eg biotech) and low/medium quality (eg high cash burn, high SBC cos) positions to be subject to market cycles, and act accordingly… thoughts and criticisms always welcome!
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Sachiv's avatar
$421.1k follower assets
Closed positions, added to existing strong ones
Sold slow growth $FVRR and $U at major losses. Yes I’m a “long term” investor but that doesn’t mean I put up with slow growth…and I also admit that I overpaid which created the magnitude of these losses.

(Side note (to self): don’t get carried away with investing services recommendations amidst euphoria - high growth cos need to prove resilience. Keep strict limits to exposure or move out when they shoot 60-70% above their 200dma!)

Added $ABNB and $TTD as they continue to show resilience and positive outlook as leaders in their categories with strong leadership

Watching if $TSLA and $NVDA fall another 8-10%…would love to add those lower. Also mentioned $TXN recently. Seems like a good “low beta anchor”
Back to the Future
After reading “Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits” by Philip Fisher, I decided to go take a look at Texas Instruments, a company he discovered very early and had already done wonderfully on at the time of writing. 40 years later, in 1999, myself and all my classmates had $TXN calculators on every desk and they’re a behemoth in their industry.

Currently they’ve increased dividends 16 consecutive years. The 3 & 5 year DGR is 16% and 19%. PEG is 0.62. EV/EBITDA is 14.76. YoY revenue growth above 20%, and 3 year earnings & income growth still double digit at 12% and 14% Gross profit margins around 68%, net margins at 43%. Return on equity around 67%, return on assets 27%, return on total capital 31%. Looks like a wonderful company all around. I used to do much deeper analysis that matched my research style. I realized over the years that I suffered from analysis paralysis. And while I was learning all kinds of worthless intricacies of all these businesses, I wasn’t doing shit from an investing perspective. The deeper I dug, the more reasons I found not to invest in every single company. So I tend to keep it a little simpler now. Metrics that are important to successful businesses are important across-the-board. Some businesses have intricacies that change that a little, but I stick to my lane and avoid instances where certain variables may make it trickier to analyze successful business operations.

$TXN looked like a wonderful addition to the dividend growth portion of my portfolio. I love wonderful companies at fair value. Just shows me to continue approaching everything with an open mind. Sometimes you can get a hot stock tip from 1957🤣
I agree with your idea of focusing on a few key metrics that define your investing style. I do something similar and it really streamlines the process and eliminates a lot of “clutter”
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$TXN Earnings
Silly little earnings dip on weak guidance, but strong numbers. It is now back up to yesterday's prices prior to earnings report. Was an easy move, especially with a 2.8% yield at that price.
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Meta/FB Earnings, Pending Home Sales: Daily Contrarian (April 27)
Good morning contrarians! Stock futures are rising a day after a brutal sell-off on Wall Street. Tech saw the worst of it yesterday, with the Nasdaq down 4% to slip deeper into bear market territory. Other U.S. indexes were down 2%-plus.

Today’s issue is reprinted here in its entirety for the CommonStock community. You may also listen to the podcast here.

State of Play
As of 0620, stock futures look to rebound with major indexes up 1%. Among individual stocks, $MSFT and $V are rallying after earnings yesterday, both up 5%. Losers include $GOOG and $TXN, both down about 3%.

Commodities are mostly flat, with WTI crude up about 0.5% to trade around $102/barrel. Bonds aren’t doing much either with the 2-year yield sitting on 2.58% whilst the 10-year is 2.77%, both roughly unchanged. Cryptos are dropping again, with bitcoin off 3% to trade around $39,000.

Earnings
$FB is the main event today but that’s not until after the close at 1600.
$GSK and $BG just reported a beat of top- and bottom-line estimates. $SPOT revenues missed expectations but MAUs and premium subscribers grew by 19% and 15%, respectively. Not sure what was expected but Spotify is moving higher this morning, up 2%.

We’re waiting to hear from $KHC, $BA, and $TMUS before the market opens at 0930. After the close we’ll also get $AMGN, $QCOM, and $F.

Economic Data
Pending home sales are out at 1000. Economists surveyed expect a 1.6% drop month-over-month in March, less than the 4.1% decline seen in February. Yesterday’s new home sales were in-line with estimates, at least on the headline number.

U.S. Trade Balance is out at 0830. Last month the trade deficit was $107 billion. U.S. trade deficits are a good thing where the health of the global economy is concerned. If Americans are buying more stuff (especially stuff they don’t need) then that means factories in China and elsewhere are churning out more stuff, which means those factories are ordering more raw materials from developing markets, which makes for a healthy global supply chain. Of course there are periodic hiccups in this global supply chain, such as when China shuts down over Covid concerns as they have done recently. Not sure that will work its way into this data yet. It could.

Retail inventories are also out at 0830. Crude oil inventories at 1030. Seeing how it’s Wednesday we’ll also get MBA Mortgage Applications at 0700.

The Bottom Line
Yesterday’s sell-off was as brutal as Monday’s rally was encouraging. Lately it seems the sell-offs have more velocity than the rallies. That’s typical for a bear market. We aren’t there yet for the S&P or Dow, but we are (again) for the Nasdaq.

There doesn’t seem to have been a catalyst for yesterday’s selling either. That too is typical of bear markets. Unless acted upon by an outside force, markets take on the direction of their spirit bull (bear or bull).

If there is a sign of encouragement, it’s that the global economy looks to be in good shape
(certain supply chain issues notwithstanding). But for now stocks have a few precious days left to salvage a positive month for April. So much for it being such a great month for stocks. Consider that your reminder that past performance does not equal future results.
Shopping time
Adding to a few positions today, already added 1% portfolio value to $TXN, $VEEV and $SDMHF. Might added $DPZ and a few other too later.
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