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If oil goes to $200, here's what I'm bullish & bearish on
Bearish:
$UBER $LYFT $DASH $GRUB and other gig economy transportation platforms
$AAL $UAL $DAL $LUV and other airlines
$KNX $JBHT $USX $SNDR and other trucking companies

Bullish:
$TSLA $F $GM $RIVN $LCID $FSR and other electric vehicle manufacturers
$SEDG $RUN $ENPH $TAN and other solar stocks
$XOM $CVX $OXY $PXD $COP and other oil stocks

Oil companies today have pricing power like never before. Automakers have pricing power like never before. Solar companies, they'll soon start jacking up their prices as demand for solar energy systems surges during the summer.

Meanwhile, fewer people are gonna use their vehicles to offer ridesharing services and food delivery services because already, fuel costs are eating up a majority of their earnings. Also, airlines will have to balance between finding ways to attract passengers to fly with them (through lower prices) and not deterring them through higher prices (since they want to pass down the higher fuel costs to customers).

Trucking companies have it the worst. The industry has been commoditized as all truckers are essentially independent contractors with their own trucks and they do their own deliveries. The smaller companies are more vulnerable to high oil prices. Meanwhile, the larger trucking companies will have to bump pay for truckers to justify them making deliveries amid the high fuel costs.

These times are unprecedented. We need to drill more oil. Bring back the fracking revolution. The OPEC cartel members have an incentive to produce a lot more oil than their current production target.

Reactivating nuclear power plants takes months or even a few years. Quadrupling down on renewables requires heavy investment and a lot more raw materials, which we are currently struggling to import. Plus, transitioning to a green energy economy takes a very long time. The green energy solutions we currently have aren't dependable. The wind doesn't blow all the time. The sun doesn't shine all the time and it doesn't shine every day and every month. Geothermal plants and hydroelectric plants can only be built in certain places. Biomass may seem viable but we don't want to cause food prices to rise because we're now removing food supply for the sake of energy production.

Mark Paddey's avatar
I don't argue that higher oil prices are good for ALL EV makers, but I can't rationalize the valuations of $RIVN $LCID $FSR and others. While I do believe $TSLA is wildly undervalued (watch their EPS growth this year), too much unearned credit has been given to others trying to follow in tesla's footsteps. These new players have a long way to go before justifying their current valuations, let alone any future growth.
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