Irish Born Investor's avatar
$16.7m follower assets
9th June 2022 - Trading Journal
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Situational awareness:
Note: No trades were made yesterday 8th June 2022.

Still optimistic going into today. Market still in a tight formation with plenty of setups looking decent. CPI Numbers tomorrow will likely move the market one way or another.
Pre Market Work:
Reviewed some charts this morning. Nothing too taxing. Added $OLPX to my focus list with a nice setup on a recent IPO. In Stan Weinstein's book he describes recent IPO's being different in terms of analysis. Overhead resistance is not as important. I like the accumulation here as pointed out and the volume dry up the past few days.

I also had an interesting discussion with @europeandgi today about one of his holdings, $XOM. The stock has advanced quite a lot and we were discussing whether it would be a good idea to sell some calls against the position as a form of hedge. The stock is right at the cusp of All Time Highs. Despite being somewhat extended (Up almost 240% from Oct 2020) it is showing phenomenal RS (Relative Strength). I crudely drew what I would like to see it do to be very bullish. Essentially what I drew is a VCP Pattern (Volatility Contraction Pattern) coined Minervini but a pattern of supply vs demand that has been visible in stocks going back 100 years. It is quite noticeable in the highlighted area from 2021.

Long story short, to me, the stock is still very bullish technically and with some healthy consolidation could easily push much higher. Figuring out tops perfectly is impossible but one can use the weight of evidence to ride their winners as long as they can.

Lastly I identified $SPOT as a nice looking short setup if the market turns sour. I would consider getting short on a break below around $110. With a target of $90.


Trading Day:
I bought $OLPX about an hour into the market today. After a soft open I saw it advancing. I have posted the Hourly chart below for some context on where I bought. Unfortunately we pulled back but it remained relatively strong until late in the day when everything really pulled back. My stop is at $13.80 so there is still plenty of space for it to gyrate.

End of day Thoughts:
The market dumped into the close. I have moved to caution. My positions held up relatively well but if the market is on not on my side then my positions will go nowhere. Tomorrow the CPI print will likely decide a direction. If we continue to dump tomorrow I will cut my positions and go back to cash.

I will be reviewing my trades somewhat. I think I might be jumping in that bit too early at the moment in terms of entry. Trying to gain that extra few cents when I should probably be waiting for more proof that the breakout isn't failing. I don't want to read too much into it considering conditions and only a few trades as sample size but it's something I am aware of.
Notes & Open Trades:
  • $SHLX - 5% Stock Position - Entry $14.39 - Stop: $13.80
  • $ASH - 5% Stock Position - Entry $111.20 - Stop: $104
  • $OLPX - 5% Stock Position - Entry $16.80 - Stop $15.80

  • $ZM - August 19th $150/$170 Bull Call Spread - Cost $1.49 per contract

Please note I operate my risk with options that I can lose 100% of the premium. This is the safest way to trade them in my opinion. Even if I cut at 50% once I am setup to lose 100% within my risk threshold then I will stay ahead of my required R:R.
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sam stribling's avatar
$107.9m follower assets
The Macro is Running the Show
TLDR at end

This memo maybe unpopular but I am going to call it how I see it and share my perspective with you all on the current market situation. My intent is to take an objective look at our current state of affairs and how I intend to navigate it.

Here we go!
  • The Macro is greater than the Micro - while there are still fantastic companies out there and I agree many are on sale from a historic valuation perspective. The way I see it is, until we get through these Macro headwinds.. it might just not matter. What to do about it? Stick to your strategy, especially if you are a long term investor and pay attention to the businesses that are getting beat up yet are sitting on strong growth trends. $NVDA is a prime recent example that comes to mind.
  • Inflation is a real problem - Specifically in Energy and Food costs. Unfortunately, I do not see much relief coming for either of these sectors. As the meme above jokingly states, the current global economy runs on cheap hydrocarbon energy. While many feel carbon neutral goals are attainable within the decade, the realist in me doesn't see this as truly attainable. I believe the transition away from hydrocarbons will take decades. We need truly available and viable alternatives at cheaper (unsubsidized) costs for this to really happen. On food, grains are the major problem. The geopolitical environment has caused large producers, Ukraine and Russia, to dramatically cut future supplies leading to many countries to start locking down their domestic supplies. What to do? not much, this might simply be something that we will need to weather. Consider buying energy companies and possibly large food suppliers like $CVX $XOM $TELL (my personal play) and $CAG or $GIS.
  • The Fed Has One Tool Left - Raising Rates. The FOMC minutes yesterday were preparing us for a more hawkish approach and they will be using this tool and soon. The question is, will this truly combat inflation that is based on rising input costs not a hot economy. What to do? Consider buying banks $BAC is my personal favorite.
  • We are already in a Recession - I know it is not official yet but in my experience when the narrative turns this way, we are already there. It simply takes time to "confirm" that we are in a recession. What to do? Focus on raising cash, adding a bit more from your day job to your 401K or IRA's and take advantage of the downturn. Recessions are natural and happen periodically.

TLDR: The macro environment is in the driver seat. Until we figure out inflation, specifically energy and food it is going to be a tough market to navigate. The FED is going to raise rates to fight it but this will likely just confirm that we are in the midst of a recession. Despite these headwinds, if you are a long term investor do your best to raise cash and buy quality that has been beaten up. Focus on companies with real earnings and consumer staples that are capable of weathering the storm.
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For the comment about already being in a recession I would ask your comments on the discrepancy between GDP and GDI (Gross Domestic Income), which is up over 2% QoQ vs GDP at -1.5%. Could GDP numbers be too strongly negative because of a sharp rise in net imports to meet inventory demand rather than a more structural weakness? Everywhere I go in my state all the small businesses still have signs saying they're hiring
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Derek Spartz's avatar
$3.2m follower assets
Celebrating a win on $XOM
Sold equivalent shares to get back my initial 2020 investment in $XOM - all remaining shares are pure profit. Stock is trading at 5 year high and don’t see too much further upside from here. I’ll happily hold the rest and collect those dividend payment for the foreseeable future 🎉
Trade with Alchemy's avatar
$10.4m follower assets
Big Week Ahead
Here are some notable earnings coming out this week that I am focusing on:

Monday - $KO
Tuesday - $MSFT, $GOOGL
Wednesday - $FB, $BA, $PINS
Thursday - $AAPL, $AMZN, $TWTR, $CAT
Friday - $XOM, $ABBV

I own most of these tickers and would love to add if the opportunity presents itself after this week's earnings. Unfortunately, last week, my scanner did not pop up anything, as you can tell, due to the volatility, so it has been pretty quiet on my side.
What to watch for the week of 4/25/22
Are you prepared to take on the markets this week? If not, here is a watchlist that I created of some potential catalysts I’ll be watching for the week beginning April 25th. Check out the link in my bio for a more detailed break down of how I plan to trade this week and view my other graphics.

Hopefully this graphic can help you navigate your investing and trading decisions. Feel free to save it for reference, share it in your trade groups and repost it on your social media page. Also be sure to follow me. Good luck everyone!
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Q1 2022 earnings reports from many Dividend Stocks
Buckle up everyone, this will be a crazy week! There are so many earnings coming up and this list isn't even complete!

Having said that, what's your favorite company reporting their earnings this week?

#Earnings #stockmarket
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