Earnings Week (April 18) 1-day price action
We are up for another busy week of earnings! Here are the reports I will look into and how the stocks performed historically, 1 day after the earnings release.
​
My favorite earning plays this week are $JNJ $PG and $DHR. $SNAP is a good "lottery" play for the more courageous among us!
I will definitively avoid $TSLA and $NFLX on earning day.
​
Jonhson & Johnson $JNJ - April 19 before the open.
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = +1.2% 🟒
  • Average price move = + / - 1.9%
  • % of positive returns = 75% 🟒
​

​
Netflix $NFLX - April 19 after the close
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = -3.9% πŸ”΄
  • Average price move = + / - 7.1% ⚠️
  • % of positive returns = 17% πŸ”΄
​

​
Procter & Gamble $PG - April 20 before the open
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = +1.0% 🟒
  • Average price move = + / - 2.0%
  • % of positive returns = 67% 🟒
​

​
Tesla $TSLA - April 20 after the close
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = -1.2% πŸ”΄
  • Average price move = + / - 6.5% ⚠️
  • % of positive returns = 33% πŸ”΄
​

​
United Airlines $UAL - April 20 after the close
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = -2.3% πŸ”΄
  • Average price move = + / - 4.2%
  • % of positive returns = 33% πŸ”΄
​

​
Danaher $DHR - on April 21 before the open
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = +1.6% 🟒
  • Average price move = + / - 2.1%
  • % of positive returns = 75% 🟒
​

​
American Airlines $AAL - April 21 before the open
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = +0.3% 🟒
  • Average price move = + / - 4.2%
  • % of positive returns = 50% 🟒
​

​
$SNAP - April 21 after the close
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = +10.3% 🟒
  • Average price move = + / - 20% ⚠️ 🎒 ⚠️
  • % of positive returns = 58% 🟒
​
οΏΌ
post mediapost media
What to watch
Are you prepared to take on the markets this week? If not, here’s a helpful watchlist of some of the most anticipated events for the week beginning April 4th to help you navigate your investing and trading decisions. Like, share and save this post for reference. Also be sure to follow me so that you never miss any upcoming market catalyst events. If you find this helpful and would like to view more of my work, consider subscribing to my Patreon. Link in my bio. $SPY $ABBV $GD $TSM $QQQ $BTC.X $HOOD $TLRY $LEVI $AAL $DAL $UAL $LUV $CHNG $UNH $LMT
post media
Emmet Barta's avatar
$2.1m follower assets
AAL in the media is talking about dropping the mask requirement on air craft flights so expect a big move if this happens

If oil goes to $200, here's what I'm bullish & bearish on
Bearish:
$UBER $LYFT $DASH $GRUB and other gig economy transportation platforms
$AAL $UAL $DAL $LUV and other airlines
$KNX $JBHT $USX $SNDR and other trucking companies

Bullish:
$TSLA $F $GM $RIVN $LCID $FSR and other electric vehicle manufacturers
$SEDG $RUN $ENPH $TAN and other solar stocks
$XOM $CVX $OXY $PXD $COP and other oil stocks

Oil companies today have pricing power like never before. Automakers have pricing power like never before. Solar companies, they'll soon start jacking up their prices as demand for solar energy systems surges during the summer.

Meanwhile, fewer people are gonna use their vehicles to offer ridesharing services and food delivery services because already, fuel costs are eating up a majority of their earnings. Also, airlines will have to balance between finding ways to attract passengers to fly with them (through lower prices) and not deterring them through higher prices (since they want to pass down the higher fuel costs to customers).

Trucking companies have it the worst. The industry has been commoditized as all truckers are essentially independent contractors with their own trucks and they do their own deliveries. The smaller companies are more vulnerable to high oil prices. Meanwhile, the larger trucking companies will have to bump pay for truckers to justify them making deliveries amid the high fuel costs.

These times are unprecedented. We need to drill more oil. Bring back the fracking revolution. The OPEC cartel members have an incentive to produce a lot more oil than their current production target.

Reactivating nuclear power plants takes months or even a few years. Quadrupling down on renewables requires heavy investment and a lot more raw materials, which we are currently struggling to import. Plus, transitioning to a green energy economy takes a very long time. The green energy solutions we currently have aren't dependable. The wind doesn't blow all the time. The sun doesn't shine all the time and it doesn't shine every day and every month. Geothermal plants and hydroelectric plants can only be built in certain places. Biomass may seem viable but we don't want to cause food prices to rise because we're now removing food supply for the sake of energy production.
I don't argue that higher oil prices are good for ALL EV makers, but I can't rationalize the valuations of $RIVN $LCID $FSR and others. While I do believe $TSLA is wildly undervalued (watch their EPS growth this year), too much unearned credit has been given to others trying to follow in tesla's footsteps. These new players have a long way to go before justifying their current valuations, let alone any future growth.
Add a comment…
Erick Mokaya's avatar
$87.9m follower assets
Earnings Last Week!
In our newsletter highlighting key quotes from earnings calls this week:

  • Consumers more accepting of price increases
  • American Airlines getting a new CEO
  • Oil capital spending on the rise


Happy Sunday all! Here's some weekend reading:

This week:

  • Market Recap
  • Macro of the Week - The Hiking Cycle
  • Earnings - Banks [$GS & $MS], Consumer Staples [$PG], Transportation [$UNP & $JBHT], Airlines [$UAL & $AAL] & Mining [$AA]
  • The Week Ahead - Event Calendar
  • Closing Thoughts - Does a Market Bottom Matter?

Upcoming Earnings Calendar (Jan 17-21th)
Hey guys! Here's next week's upcoming earnings calendar!

The most important thing I'm interested in is if there's a change of character relative to the past earnings season. Growth stocks got hammered last time. Hopefully this quarter the worst has been priced in and companies are evaluated on their actual results.

Some other things I'm interested in:
  • $PG - Are sales numbers still strong? Has supply chain inflation persisted?
  • $NFLX - Streaming trends over the past quarter. (I hold $ROKU and a bit of $FUBO)
  • $UAL and $AAL - Comments on the Omicron variant and corporate travel demand.
  • $PNC $BAC $KEY - Insights on the economy. December retail sales were down, so we'll see if banks also point to weak consumers.

What are you guys interested in?

If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

TUE:
WED:
THU:
FRI:
post media
Commonstock is a social network that amplifies the knowledge of the best investors, verified by actual track records for signal over noise. Community members can link their existing brokerage accounts and share their real time portfolio, performance and trades (by percent only, dollar amounts never shared). Commonstock is not a brokerage, but a social layer on top of existing brokerages helping to create more engaged and informed investors.