$DASH continues to see more orders despite being in a post-COVID world
When DoorDash went public, many analysts were predicting that as the world transitioned past COVID, DoorDash's revenue growth would see significant deceleration. Some even thought that DoorDash would see its total order numbers decline.

After looking at their Q1 2022 numbers, I'm amazed to see that quarter over quarter, $DASH continues to see order growth. The analysts that predicted a decline in the number of orders were wrong. But the consensus view, that order growth would slow down, was correct.

DoorDash is more resilient in the post-COVID world than we realize. Even with inflation and high fuel price concerns, they continue to fulfill more orders now than the quarter before.
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I think people are getting into the habit of having food delivered or maybe are working now and having less time to cook. Will be interesting to see if gas prices or other inflationary concerns continue to allow $DASH to grow
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Samuel Meciar's avatar
$14.5m follower assets
Portfolio changes - update 6
I decided to sell $DASH and $ADSK. No specific reasons, I just find better opportunities elsewhere within the themes. Both are strong companies with lots to like, but I have to follow the process of adding to highest conviction, and I simply just see better R/R at these levels elsewhere.

As $ADSK replacement, I added to my $U position (cost average $57,08) - for those who care lol. By doing so, $U is back to I believe my top 10 when it comes to weighting, even as I'm down roughly 33% on my position. I'm happy to have it higher as I believe I'm looking at lucrative R/R here and Unity has tons of optionality, too!

So that concludes my portfolio changes for the week, I wish everybody a great weekend!
Steve Matt's avatar
$10.2m follower assets
$U $BIRD $OLO Earnings: What I'm Looking For
Unity Software Inc. ($U) - Reporting earnings this afternoon (5/10)

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Currently trading at 15.2 trailing sales and 8.7 forward sales which sounds expensive. However, It's slightly on the cheap side on my Price-to-Sales-to-Growth ratio at 0.20 (accurately priced is 0.25). Will they maintain 40% revenue growth and keep the PSG in the range it's at?
  • Net profit margin (I guess it's more accurate to call it a net loss margin) has gotten worse each of the past 2 years. FCF worsened as well. Curious to see what direction this goes. I would guess they'll both get worse before better.
  • Operate revenue growth >50%.
  • DBNER >140%
  • Customers generating $100,000 revenue >1,100.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 27th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.32 years
Number of purchases since: 1
Annualized return: (90.7%)
Annualized $SPY return: (30.0%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (45.1%)

Allbirds, Inc. ($BIRD) - Reporting earnings this afternoon (5/10)
This is a company that I'm partially blinded by my love of the product. Allbirds are incredible shoes. I own 5 pairs. I still think $LULU should by them. Seems like a match made in heaven.

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Really need to see strong revenue growth. 2021 grew at 26.5%. Really hoping for 30%+ in Q1.
  • Would really appreciate if management would begin providing digital vs store revenue breakdown along with shoe vs apparel and men vs women.
  • Just curious to see what management's comments on are the conference call.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 22nd highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.51 years
Number of purchases since: 2
Annualized return: (92.5%)
Annualized $SPY return: (21.6%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (38.3%)

Olo Inc. ($OLO) - Reporting earnings this afternoon (5/10)
This was my play on the food delivery trend. I hate the food delivery apps ($DASH $UBER $GRUB whatever, they all suck and are predatory to their "contractors" and the restaurants). Olo though is just SaaS for restaurants. I'm getting pummeled in my position but I remain cautiously bullish.

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Annualized revenue growth of 67% since 2018 is nothing to sneeze at. Need to keep it up to justify their somehow still high P/S ratios. PSG is cheap on my scale though at 0.10.
  • Gross profit margins got worse in 2021. Get it back above 80%, please.
  • Active location count growth >83,000.
  • Average revenue per unit >$525.
  • NRR >120%
  • Not sure of management will provide this metric but a modules per location update would be lovely.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 12th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 1.14 years
Number of purchases since: 1
Annualized return: (61.1%)
Annualized $SPY return: 2.4%
Annualized $QQQ return: (4.1%)
April 2022 Bloodbath - Names Down >30% Since April 1
April 2022 was one of the worst market months of all time. In fact, it was the worst since October 2008. Here are 100 stocks down >30% since April 1:

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Paul Cerro's avatar
$26.8m follower assets
Can deeper gas discounts drive more people to sign up for Walmart+?
The news: Walmart doubled the fuel discount it offers members of its Walmart+ program. Members will receive five to 10 cents off each gallon at both Walmart-run and Murphy USA stations (the discount varies based on state regulations).
  • Members will also receive 10 cents off each gallon at roughly 12,000 ExxonMobil stations.
  • The announcement comes days after AAA reported that the national average for a gallon of regular gas rose four cents over the past week to $4.12, which is a 43% increase year-over-year (YoY).

More on this: The increased gas discount provides Walmart shoppers with another reason to enroll in the $98-per-year Walmart+ program, which already offers free delivery on items, like groceries, purchased in stores, free shipping for online orders, and prescription drugs discounts.
  • Nearly all Walmart customers, 91%, are aware of rising gas prices and nearly half of those shoppers have changed their behaviors because of those increased costs, wrote Chris Cracchiolo, senior vice president and general manager of Walmart+, in a blog post. “We want Walmart+ to help our customers save time and money, not only when they’re shopping with us, but throughout their day. We’re excited to continue to find new ways to deliver for them.”

Growing membership: Boosting membership in Walmart+, which launched in September 2020, is a key priority for the retailer.
  • Walmart has a significant opportunity to do so because of its vast reach. About 90% of the U.S. population lives within 10 miles of a Walmart store, according to the company. And 95% of shoppers had visited a Walmart store two or more times in the past year, according to data based on a Numerator consumer panel reported on by Business Insider.
  • However, only 15% of US households had Walmart+ access in February, a far cry from the 62% of households with an Amazon Prime membership, according to research conducted by Bizrate Insights for Insider Intelligence.
  • Increasing that share can produce significant dividends given that Walmart+ members are more lucrative and more frequent shoppers, Cracchiolo told CNBC. They spend more than twice as much with the company as the typical Walmart shopper, since they shop both online and in stores.

Inflation as an advantage: US inflation rose to 8.5% in March YoY, per the US Labor Department, which is the largest increase since December 1981.
  • Soaring gas prices, which rose 18.3% in March, accounted for a significant share of that gain.
  • Periods of inflation push consumers across all income levels to be increasingly price sensitive, which is an advantage for Walmart given its long-standing positioning as a value-oriented mass merchant, CEO Doug McMillon, during the company’s Q4 earnings call.

The big takeaway: Retention is critical to the success of every retailer’s membership program. That can be challenging. For example, while 18.3% of households had Walmart+ access in December, that share fell 3.2 percentage points two months later after the holiday season.
  • While gas discounts may spur some shoppers to enroll in Walmart+, the retailer needs to ensure that it offers a wide enough array of benefits to keep them enrolled.

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There aren’t many Exxon Mobil gas stations in the Bay Area and Silicon Valley. Because of that, I don’t see a need for people to get Walmart+. However, if the gas discounts included Chevron, Shell, Armco, and Valero, then that’s a major reason for people in the Bay Area/Silicon Valley to get Walmart+.

This is coming from a friend who lives in the Bay.
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Samuel Meciar's avatar
$14.5m follower assets
Hot seats update
$PYPL off of my "hot seat"

Okay earnings, loved Venmo and BNPL growth in particular. In addition to 256% YoY growth of BNPL installments, PayPal explicitly mentioned $ABNB $DASH among my holdings, so I expect those to be pretty strong.

$DOCU and $ZM left on hot seats.

$DOCU - I'm looking for progress on Agreement Cloud and will be comparing their performance to $ADBE's Document Cloud

$ZM - I'm seeking visibility into how Zoom Phone is doing, how they are competing with Teams and Meet as I'm seeing Microsoft leveraging Teams into Win 11 and in 365 packages and Google too pushing their Google Meet inside Google office tools package with a pretty good results of Google Chat lately too in the App Store.
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