Kind of think this might be a top for solar and renewable energy stocks for a bit. Quite a run spurred by some high demand and legislative news. Times like these I wish had bought even more during the negative sentiment times of course, but I always feel being too overweight anything is too risky for my comfort level. Had to trim Enphase position a little today. As much as I love the company, stock is overextended. One piece of bad news, or even just Republicans leading polls for midterms (it is August after all) will send these stocks down 20% in a week. I’ve learned you can never get comfortable, even as a long term investor, when dealing with a volatile growth industry. These swings are too wild and there’s a lot of crap you can step in if you’re not careful. $ENPH $ICLN $SPWR $SEDG $FSLR $RUN $AMRC
Yup I sold my $DQ because it was up ~80% in less than 4 months; gotta take advantage of the irrationality sometimes. Went to school for solar engineering; got into Enphase at $1🤣🤣. Recovering from two spinal fusions required me to liquidate what little investments I had well before they saw $100🥲. But it helped me believe in myself when I saw growth right in front of my face. We were installing Enphase everywhere and so was everyone else. Only people not bullish were investors.
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$RUN up nearly 10% as utility bills surge. Is it a sign to buy the dip on solar stocks?
It is just the beginning of the month of May and for Q1 2022, demand for solar panels is already hot. As the summer season creeps in, demand for solar will only continue to grow.

Two months ago, I wrote an article on why I see solar being a driver of growth for $TSLA this year. To my surprise, in their Q1 2022 investor presentation, their solar business declined 48% year-over-year. As time goes on, maybe their solar business can accelerate in growth.

Overall, the pure plays of the solar business like $RUN seem to be thriving. Because of this, I can see $TAN, the ETF that covers the solar industry, rebounding to newer highs.
If oil goes to $200, here's what I'm bullish & bearish on
Bearish:
$UBER $LYFT $DASH $GRUB and other gig economy transportation platforms
$AAL $UAL $DAL $LUV and other airlines
$KNX $JBHT $USX $SNDR and other trucking companies

Bullish:
$TSLA $F $GM $RIVN $LCID $FSR and other electric vehicle manufacturers
$SEDG $RUN $ENPH $TAN and other solar stocks
$XOM $CVX $OXY $PXD $COP and other oil stocks

Oil companies today have pricing power like never before. Automakers have pricing power like never before. Solar companies, they'll soon start jacking up their prices as demand for solar energy systems surges during the summer.

Meanwhile, fewer people are gonna use their vehicles to offer ridesharing services and food delivery services because already, fuel costs are eating up a majority of their earnings. Also, airlines will have to balance between finding ways to attract passengers to fly with them (through lower prices) and not deterring them through higher prices (since they want to pass down the higher fuel costs to customers).

Trucking companies have it the worst. The industry has been commoditized as all truckers are essentially independent contractors with their own trucks and they do their own deliveries. The smaller companies are more vulnerable to high oil prices. Meanwhile, the larger trucking companies will have to bump pay for truckers to justify them making deliveries amid the high fuel costs.

These times are unprecedented. We need to drill more oil. Bring back the fracking revolution. The OPEC cartel members have an incentive to produce a lot more oil than their current production target.

Reactivating nuclear power plants takes months or even a few years. Quadrupling down on renewables requires heavy investment and a lot more raw materials, which we are currently struggling to import. Plus, transitioning to a green energy economy takes a very long time. The green energy solutions we currently have aren't dependable. The wind doesn't blow all the time. The sun doesn't shine all the time and it doesn't shine every day and every month. Geothermal plants and hydroelectric plants can only be built in certain places. Biomass may seem viable but we don't want to cause food prices to rise because we're now removing food supply for the sake of energy production.
I don't argue that higher oil prices are good for ALL EV makers, but I can't rationalize the valuations of $RIVN $LCID $FSR and others. While I do believe $TSLA is wildly undervalued (watch their EPS growth this year), too much unearned credit has been given to others trying to follow in tesla's footsteps. These new players have a long way to go before justifying their current valuations, let alone any future growth.
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Alberto Wallis's avatar
$23.3m follower assets
Upcoming Earnings Calendar (Feb 14th - 18th)
Hey guys! Here's the upcoming earnings calendar! Three of my holdings report next week.

  • $ABNB - The stock has held up pretty well during the market sell-off. The valuation is still high, but with re-openings the company could see a big boost this year.
  • $TTD - They've said Apple IDFA is a non-issue, so their growth should be great. A key indicator of ad spend.
  • $ROKU - The stock is down almost 64% from ATH, but the fundamentals keep improving. I expect great results from the company, with ARPU growing and margins expanding.

If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

MON:


TUE:


WED:


THU:


FRI:
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Tracking Results of 'The Market' Game
Tomorrow we will be holding another round of 'The Market' stock pitching game live over Zoom at 5:30pm PST / 8:30pm EST! One of the fun things about this game is tracking the performance of the pitches.

One month ago at the event we had twelve pitches, and some great discussion. Here's how those ideas turned out:

Congratulations to Ryan C @rconn2986 for the pitch that has performed the best with Skillz! $SKLZ is an online mobile multiplayer competition platform that is integrated into a number of iOS and Android games.

At the live game Skillz was also the pitch that received the most votes- it's cool to see the Commonstock community forecasting the best performing stock over the next month. Let's see if that continues!

The average one-month return of the stock pitches last week was +7.9% while the S&P 500 returned +2.9%. Not too shabby.

If you'd like to attend the live game tomorrow, please DM me or comment below, and I can send you a calendar invite with the Zoom link!

I've been chatting with all the pitchers for tomorrow and I'm excited for the companies they'll be pitching. A lot of names I hadn't heard of before.

See you all tomorrow!

@rconn2986 @amanda @nwzh @pat_connolly @northstarcapital @aaronkettl @jacobsteele

@tyler asked, so I also pulled results from the game we had in December. Now I know why he asked- because Tyler's pick of MicroVision absolutely crushed i! 😆

These returns are from December 17th, 2020, through today, Feb. 12th, 2021.
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"The Market" Game Recap
Thanks everyone for coming to "The Market" game last night! We had 16 people concurrently (about 20 total coming and going over the course of an hour and a half).

My favorite part was the discussion- people asked really good questions and we got a great conversation going. Check out @grace 's memo on some of her takeaways for a glimpse of the juicy learnings: https://share.commonstock.com/arn0mpYH3cb

If you'd like to receive a calendar invite for next month's game, shoot me a DM with your email and join the group channel here: https://share.commonstock.com/share?invite=FIkFbJ

Here is a recap of the picks, and the Commonstock users who pitched them, in case you want to reach out to them and learn more:

Round 1

Round 2

Round 3
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This was one of the coolest moments in my Commonstock journey. It probably sounds corny, but having passionate community members make connections with each other and pull the product out of us is a truly special feeling... Now we just need to build it!

Thank you @nathanworden for creating this and thank you so much to everyone for joining last night and for your amazing ideas!

Can't wait to see if that chart @rconn2986 drew will be accurate! Everyone lookout for the drawdown in ~April 2020 😬
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Grace Gruber's avatar
$71.4m follower assets
"The Market" Postgame Wrap
TL;DR: @nathanworden should be a game show host, and I learned about some great companies that I’m super interested in investing in for the future!

Earlier tonight, the absolutely incredible @nathanworden his second iteration of the “The Market” Game. It was a great show of Commonstockers and an awesome way to meet other users face-to-face. Although I observed, I had a great time learning about some new companies. And of course, when it was my turn to speak, I happened to be stretching, which gave everyone a good laugh; however, I’ll have questions and a pitch ready for next time. Here’s a snippet about what piqued my interest most:

  • $SKLZ : Pitched by @rconn2986 , this is definitely a gaming company with a bright future as this space continues to grow. I really enjoyed the point made during discussion/Q&A about how Skillz is less likely to face regulation in comparison to other gambling / eSports / sports betting companies like $MGM, $PENN, and others. Also, currently sitting at $26 (at the time of writing), it seems like a good buy & hold strategy and picking up a few shares is definitely on the horizon for me.
  • $RUN : Pitched by the wonderful @amanda , I am absolutely enamored with this company. Sunrun is a company of the future due to its focus on greentech. As a Sustainability minor in school, this is right up my alley, and I cannot wait to invest soon and watch this company grow, even as its governmental tax credits might decrease in the intermediate term.
  • $ARKQ : Pitched by @aaronkettl , this is a standout ETF that targets the main pinpoints of the current fourth industrial revolution. ARK Invest has yet to miss in my opinion, and I see all the companies in this index going to the moon. Cathie Wood is a revolutionary and I feel as if most of us agree here.
  • @nathanworden 's future career in game show hosting. That’s all.

Honorable mentions to $GRWG &$POSH, as they have been added to my watchlist.

Once again, thank you so much @nathanworden for hosting this great event, and I can’t wait to see everyone at the next meeting!
Yaaaas awesome wrap-up. Haha and you totally got me with that stretch. I DEFINITELY thought you were raising your hand. Not sorry I called on you though. Looking forward to your pitch next month!
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Eric Pelnik's avatar
$284.3m follower assets
Earnings this week
Monday, Nov 2nd
$PYPL PayPal
$AMC AMC Theatres
$EL Estee Lauder Companies
$WM Waste Management
$CWH Camping World
$CLX Clorox

Tuesday, Nov 3rd
$RACE Ferrari
$SYY Sysco
$W Wayfair
$IT Gartner
HelloFresh

Wednesday, Nov 4th
$MRO Marathon Oil
$FIT Fitbit
$ORCL Oracle
$QCOM Qualcomm
$MELI MercadoLibre
$EXPE Expedia
$ZNGA Zynga
$LUMN CenturyLink
$SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro
$WYNN Wynn Resorts

Thursday, Nov 5th
$TMUS T-Mobile
$SQ Square
Nintendo
$UBER Uber
$PTON Peloton
$TTD Trade Desk
$ROKU Roku
$Z Zillow Group
$TTWO Take Two
$NET Cloudflare
$HUBS HubSpot
$RUN Sunrun
$AYX Alteryx

Friday, Nov 6th
$VIRT Virtu Financial
$VIACA ViacomCBS

Sources: Business Insider, Google Finance, and Yahoo Finance
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Commonstock is a social network that amplifies the knowledge of the best investors, verified by actual track records for signal over noise. Community members can link their existing brokerage accounts and share their real time portfolio, performance and trades (by percent only, dollar amounts never shared). Commonstock is not a brokerage, but a social layer on top of existing brokerages helping to create more engaged and informed investors.