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@austin
Austin Lieberman
$222.9M follower assets
Proud Dad, Husband, and Veteran. Long-term investor.
15 following4,742 followers
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Austin Lieberman's avatar
Austin Lieberman
$222.9MFollowers
@austin04/19/2022
Do you Have Questions for Ark Invest?
Hey everyone. Ark has their Q1 webinar in 2 days (I’ll post a link below). You can attend live and/or submit questions.

I’m happy to submit questions you all post here as well and I’ll write up a memo with my notes after the webinar.

So either post your questions here or at the link!

ARK Funds
Webinars - ARK Funds
Undefined
@eggplant04/19/2022
What are the grey lines you are skating on with respect to citing 50% expected CAGRs and that being construed to promising performance?

Thanks
+ 4 comments
Austin Lieberman's avatar
Austin Lieberman
$222.9MFollowers
@austin04/13/2022
Better Turn Around Bet $ZM $PTON $FB over next 2 years?
I own $ZM but not the other two. These companies have struggled over the last 12 months+

With that in mind, which is most likely to turn around and outperform the market?
Most likely to turn around and outperform the market?
17%Zoom
68%FaceMetaBook
11%Peloton
2%All will trail market (2yr)
35 VotesPoll ended on: 4/14/2022
Austin Lieberman's avatar
Austin Lieberman
$222.9MFollowers
@austin04/12/2022
Strongly Considering $FB
Facebook (I'm not calling it Meta) is trading at a blended P/E of 16 for the first time since 2018.

Sentiment is about as bad as I can ever remember. The street expects a huge cash dump into R&D.

Entering in 2018 at a PE of 16 when the stock was most hated was a very timely opportunity. If $FB can sustain 15%+ EPS growth in FY23 and FY24 and it trades up to its normalized PE of 26 it's a 30% annualized ROR

So the question is does $FB over or underperform expectations and will it deserve multiple expansion?

FWIW even if the PE drops to 15 we're still looking at >10% annualized returns. Not a bad R/R
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Austin Lieberman's avatar
Austin Lieberman
$222.9MFollowers
@austin04/11/2022
My $LOW trades
Made Lowe's my largest position. Proven winner in a market that's not going away. I believe there's a lot of negative housing sentiment built into the stock price and as a reliable dividend grower, I really like Lowe's here.

Based off expected 12% EPS CAGR from now until 2025 and a P/E of 15.5, Lowe's earns a 10% annual RoR from here.

Guess the last time it traded at a P/E of 15..... 2012.

Is Lowe's a better business now than in 2012? I think so.
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Dividend Dollars
@dividenddollars04/11/2022
I've been watching $LOW for a while and I think its getting close to a level where I want to start my position! However, I'm holding off till I get a better feel of the economy and how it will affect $LOW. With inflation picking up and people returning to work post-pandemic, I think there will be less of a budget and less of a need for ordinary folks to work on their homes which is quite contradictory to what $LOW and $HD had experienced for the last two years. What do you think? Should I hold off or pull trigger?
+ 3 comments
Austin Lieberman's avatar
Austin Lieberman
$222.9MFollowers
@austin04/11/2022
My $CRWD trades
During $CRWD investor event last week management laid out a clear path to 200% revenue growth by 2026

  • 22 modules offered, up from 10 at IPO
  • 14% market share and growing
  • Only enterprise software company > $1B TTM rev w/30% FCF margin
  • Only 1% penetrated federal market

Further, if we look out to 2025 based on expectations for 28% Rev per share CAGR and a PS ratio of 21 (down from 31 blended P/S today) annual RoR would be 16%
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Austin Lieberman's avatar
Austin Lieberman
$222.9MFollowers
@austin03/16/2022
New positions $AMZN $GTLB
Added to $TWLO $DOCN $MNDY
All of these look very attractive over the next 5+ years based on expected growth.

Traveling so can’t type a bunch, but “growth” has been indiscriminately crushed and imo there are some good buying opportunities in good companies (emphasize good companies).
Austin Lieberman's avatar
Austin Lieberman
$222.9MFollowers
@austin03/13/2022
What if $SNOW P/S contracts from 40 today to 15 by FY 27?
Shares would be up ~125% from here for a CAGR of 18%

That's with the P/S multiple being cut by more than 50%

Def won't deserve a P/S of 41 then, but with annual rev growth in the 25% - 35% range, a PS of 15 isn't crazy.

Kinda crazy to think about. Would love to hear bull/bear thoughts on Snowflake.

Long $SNOW
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Joshua Simka
@tomato03/17/2022
Thanks for sharing this model, @austin! How/where did you make it? Am I the only one who isn't enthused by the prospect of a 125% return in 5 years from a company going for 40.0x sales? I just don't think 30% revenue growth is very high.
Add a comment…
Austin Lieberman's avatar
Austin Lieberman
$222.9MFollowers
@austin03/08/2022
QUICK SHARE YOUR PORTFOLIO WHILE IT'S UP
I'm just kidding... but seriously.

There's tons of data out there showing that as human beings we tend to focus on negative situations far more than positive ones.

As investors that translates to losses hurting 37 times worse than gains make us happy.

As you can tell I am a scientist and that data is correct.

All joking aside, I'm all about transparency and sharing our losses when we have them. But if we're in this for the long run, we also need to celebrate the good days..especially during tough stretches.

In a recent podcast, David Gardner recently talked about how he looks at his portfolio way more when it's going up than he does when it is going down. When the market is in "corrections" David likes to spend more time reading, playing games, and doing things outside of investing.

I really like that behavioral hack because David has made his mind up that he is an investor and wants to own his companies for years... so what good does it do to dwell when the whole market is down?

Would love to hear any tricks you do on yourself to encourage good investing behavior.

Also... I've been buying tech-growth things with my bi-weekly contributions. See linked trades
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ParrotStock
@parrot03/08/2022
Great reminder Austin. I tend to watch much closer on the way up as well. It's a great mental health strategy. Unless I'm actively looking for a trade, best to not look on red days.
+ 5 comments
Austin Lieberman's avatar
Austin Lieberman
$222.9MFollowers
@austin03/01/2022
$CRM Q4’21 Results: Beat Rev & EPS, ups guidance. Long
  • Q4 Non-GAAP EPS $0.84, beat by $0.09.
  • Revenue $7.32B, up 25.8% YoY, beat by $80M..
  • FY23 Revenue Guidance: $32.0 Billion to $32.1 Billion vs. $31.80B consensus.
  • Q1’23 Revenue Guidance: $7.37 Billion to $7.38 Billion, up 24% YoY vs. $7.27B consensus.
  • Raises FY23 GAAP Operating Margin Guidance to Approximately 3.6% and
  • Non-GAAP Operating Margin Guidance of Approximately 20%

What a stellar record of revenue and EPS and beats for the last 17 quarters.

Over the last 8 years $CRM has beat the $SPY 16.7% vs 13.2%

And moving forward if shares trade at normalized sales of 8x based on revenue estimates in 2024 (which the company has traditional beaten), shares will trade at ~$304 which is an average annual return of ~21%. Obviously these are just possible outcomes based off of historical multiples and earnings estimates. They will be wrong, but as an investor, I like the risk reward of owning this proven winner here.

I have my portfolio linked and all transactions shared here.

Curious if anyone is long, bullish, bearish, etc on $CRM and why?
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Austin Lieberman's avatar
Austin Lieberman
$222.9MFollowers
@austin02/26/2022
Working on a $DOCN Deep Dive. Best Resources You’ve Found?
I have a theory that Commonstock is an amazing place for us to share what we’re working on, crowd-source the best resources smart investors here have found, and produce our own high-quality research.

So essentially, in this use-case, Commonstock can be a crowd-sourced central research hub with the added bonus of connected portfolios transparently showing skin in the game, performance, etc.

With that being said, I’d love it if you’d share any research you have found about $DOCN so far.

My starting point is Digital Ocean’s Q4 2021 earnings. They’re executing very well and growing more efficient with scale while still accelerating revenue growth. All great signs.

Market expected to grow from $70B to $140B in the next few years (IDC)

Revenue growth
2020: 25%
2021: 35%
Q4 2021: 37% (accelerated into EoY)

FCF Margin goal
2022: ~9%
2024: 20%+

Rule of 40
From 7% to 41% this year.
Plan to exceed 50%

So that’s a quick review of recent execution + management’s current thinking on guidance.

Now for a look at where we stand on next twelve months enterprise value to revenue. This is why I currently don’t own the stock. It’s currently at a much richer multiple than $AMZN and $GOOGL, and a bit higher than $MSFT.

DOCN gross margin is significantly higher than AMZN, but lower than GOOGL and MSFT.

So in order to own DOCN here, one must be convinced that the growth potential far outweighs the growth + relatively limited risk from GOOGL and MSFT which are established businesses with a lot of optionality.

All of the above is why I want to do a deep dive on Digital Ocean even though I’m not currently a share holder.
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