Samuel Meciar's avatar
$7.5m follower assets
Portfolio changes - update 8
Hey friends, there's a lot of cleaning I'm doing, for real. It's getting tricky, as there's basically no companies I view as weak in my portfolio, now it's reaching a point where I have to consider just how much the position covers what I want it for and whether there's others that can do so instead, so I can consolidate further. I tend to prefer optionality over specialization. So:

  • I sold $ENPH - it's simply hard for me to pass on $TSLA at $700, I also sold $ASML as I see $AMD $NVDA and $QCOM more lucrative when looking at valuation vs revenue and earnings growth. Again, this all is about personal preferences and there's a lot of bias and other nuances of data points somewhere in my head that get me to those decisions.
  • On the other hand, I initiated positions in $SNOW and $ZS, as mentioned previously. I like this pricing.
  • I added to my positions in $ABNB $DDOG $MDB $NET $COIN (although I'm staying cautious there) $TEAM and $TSLA.
When I was studying Solar in 2015-16, I was screaming at the top of my lungs for people to buy Enphase ~$3. All the experts said avoid, while dropping their fancy acronyms and useless info. Meanwhile, our college entrepreneur program was installing Enphase on literally 100% of our residential installs. Was obvious to us they were going to be the leader in the space. Definitely been crazy over valued for a while now, wise to get out.
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Samuel Meciar's avatar
$7.5m follower assets
Portfolio changes - update 7
Hello friends, I've been continuously evaluating my portfolio over the weekend and I want to share with you what my end actions/conclusions are:

  • I sold $AMPL. For those not familiar, Amplitude is a leader in product and behavioral analytics which puts seemingly random data into a perspective. They compete with players such as Mixpanel or Pendo. All of those are pretty strong competitors, which on its own isn't a deal breaker, in theory all of those could win simultaneously as the space is huge. But, those insights get sent over into CDPs or Customer Data Platforms. Customer data platforms are basically a software which combines the data from all sorts of tools - like Amplitude - to create a centralized customer database containing data on all touch points and interactions with the product/service. Segment is no.1 in the space, used by huge players, acquired recently by Twilio (which I own). Now I realize that regardless of whether Amplitude, Mixpanel or Pendo wins the customer, they are likely using Twilio already for at least something and so the network effects kick in. Therefore I decided to play this space through $TWLO which is more diverse and not focused on just one product, but instead has a lot of functionality and owns the top player in the CDP which is where that data from Amplitude and others comes from anyways. So I'll have exposure. I just prefer that upper layer over the end layer.

  • I spent basically the whole day yesterday trying to understand $SNOW better, evaluating their first mover advantage when it comes to data evolution in cloud vs legacy, their relationship with SMBs and overall the culture of the company. I'm very impressed and the company fits a lot of my checkmarks. Frank maybe isn't the most visible CEO out there, but I somewhat admire his laser focus on innovation, not getting too comfortable with yourself, ... basically pushing the limits at all times. Both $MDB and $SNOW fit many of investing themes I build my portfolio around and give me an exposure to broad set of customers, even better so to those just scaling up whose success will be reflected in the amount they pay to those because of their usage based pricing. $PLTR does something similar, but their Data Mesh is way more early in the process and Palantir overall has way less clients (although more capitalized) than those two. These 3 companies I believe are the best of breed when it comes to anything data. In conclusion, I essentially dismissed Snowflake due to the valuation since the listing, I knew something but not nearly as much as I do today. Now that I'm better informed I decided to add this one into my portfolio. This no doubt is a very HQ company!

  • I also added more shares of $PATH today as I believe this is an incredible opportunity to load up more shares of this incredible beast!
hypescaleflow's avatar
$7.5m follower assets
Portfolio plans
My stock buy list for 2022
Crypto: $ETH
Hardware/AI: $NVDA $AMD $TSLA Software: $DDOG $SNOW $CRWD $ZS $MDB I plan make each of these at least a 5% holding, as I believe each is leader and will have the best recovery/growth story going forward
Cloud Spending $MSFT $AMZN $GOOG and $SNOW
While macro slowdowns have been a concern for many companies, cloud spending appears to be unaffected as $MSFT, $AMZN, and $GOOG all released stellar cloud results. @analyticsiot estimated TAM is enormous and we are still in the early stages.

The three major cloud companies combined had >$40 bn in revenue and were all growing at >25% YoY. The runway is huge as @analyticsiot estimates only 20% of workloads happen in the cloud. The continued adoption will be a huge tailwind for the cloud.

$MSFT revenue in intelligent cloud equaled 19.1bn and increased 29% in CC while total cloud spend equaled over $23bn in revenue. They have doubled $100 million dollar plus customers and are seeing lots of growth in machine learning now that companies have their data in the cloud.

$AMZN AWS had $18.4bn in revenue which was up 37% YoY. AWS now has an impressive $74bn run rate. They are continuing to invest heavily in the infrastructure of the cloud as they expect demand to increase and need to be able to support the future demand.

$GOOG cloud is still a major player, but a distant third. They had 5.8bn in revenue which was up 44% YoY. They are investing heavily into different products on their platform including, cybersecurity and data warehousing.

These cloud figures give me cautious optimism for $SNOW earnings report on May 25th. However, harsh market reactions to high-growth companies that miss estimates should be considered as well.

Link to IOT Analytics article
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$BGRY $NLCP $FIGS Earnings: What I'm Looking For
Earnings season is coming to a close for me. I may have a few more of these posts but they'll become a bit more spread apart (I'll probably do one for $DOCS, $RSKD, $SNOW, $PATH, $OKTA, and $CRWD in the next couple weeks before they report. Follow if you want to see them and comment about what I'm overlooking or getting wrong!
Berkshire Grey, Inc. ($BGRY) - Reporting earnings this morning (5/12)
This is a loooong term play on the robotics automation market. I think there's very little that could make me sell this position before it hits the 5-year mark in my portfolio. Not that I think it'll be a market-beater by then. I just don't think the company's execution can be properly evaluated before then. For Berkshire Grey, I am looking at three things:
  • Revenue growth - Obvious
  • Balance sheet - Don't be on the verge of bankruptcy
  • Backlog - The indicator of whether or not companies are buying into the product
Current position:
Total cost basis: 73rd highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 1.09 years
Number of purchases since initial position: 2
Annualized return: (84.4%)
Annualized $SPY return: (9.6%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (19.7)
NewLake Capital Partners, Inc. ($NLCP) - Reporting earnings this afternoon (5/12)
Is this a mini-$IIPR? They are certainly tracking that way, at least early on.
Here's what I'm looking for:
  • It'd be great if management began breaking out Property Expenses in their Operating Expense breakdown (like IIPR does).
  • Can revenue keep growing >100%?
  • Property count and rentable square feet needs to keep growing.
  • Stay at or really close to 100% leased.
Current position:
Total cost basis: 37th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.55 years
Number of purchases since initial position: 1
Annualized return: (55.8%)
Annualized $SPY return: (22.1%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (34.5%)
FIGS, Inc. ($FIGS) - Reporting earnings this afternoon (5/12)
I love what this brand is doing. My wife is in the medical industry and anecdotally confirmed how loves FIGS clothes are.
Here's what I'm looking for:
  • Management is guiding for 32% full year revenue growth, which would be a deceleration. Getting a good jump in Q1 will hopefully be an indicator of a full year beat.
  • Gotta stay FCF positive.
  • Can international revenue keep growing at triple digits?
  • I know the demand for scrubs will continue to be there. What about non-scrubs revenue? It accounted for 13.5% of 2021 revenue (an all-time high) and grew at 61% in 2021. Can that continue?
  • I really wish management would updated investors CAC.
  • I also wish management would update investors on Net Revenue per Active Customer and Average Order Value on a quarterly basis instead of annually.
Current position:
Total cost basis: 23rd highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.93 years
Number of purchases since initial position: 3
Annualized return: (63.1%)
Annualized $SPY return: (10.4%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (17.8%)
Sachiv's avatar
$383.3k follower assets
Small buys the last 3 days
Small adds to $DDOG $AMD $ABNB…
Sold puts on $DDOG ($90 strike July 2022) - continued bet on b2b cloud data service providers doing well vs just those providing tools for e-commerce (eg like $SNOW $MDB vs $TWLO and $SHOP) Yes, growth rates will taper in 2023, but leverage should be clear to see for investors to finally move to p/e and earnings yields. The million $ question- which ones retain moats and can defend earnings over the long run,like $MSFT & $GOOG ?

Based on results and guidance I believe $NVDA and $AMD will continue to dominate, and b2b software(as I mentioned above) will continue its penetration and expansion into larger SMEs and enterprises.

$ABNB is an example of a pandemic beneficiary but it first had to go through the downturn and be led by amazing management! Let’s see how these latest moves and new “product” launches do this summer and beyond!

Missed out on puts and adding to $TSLA by a tiny tiny diff on my limit orders. The Shanghai factory expansion announcement and reopening of the region have helped boost the short term price, but we will soon see upward revisions for late 2023 and beyond by Gary Black and the other Tesla bulls.

Sold out on crypto exchange $VYGVF after losing 80%…numbers seem good, margins ok, but no moat in the long run. Maybe I just don’t understand crypto yet…it was too small a part of my portfolio and didn’t fall into an area I understand or an area I am spending time trying to understand.
Austin Lieberman's avatar
$451.2m follower assets
Major Allocation Shift to Growth
I've had about 15% invested in Dividend style companies that have been relatively protected from the recent volatility.

This morning I'm adjusting my allocation to 82% growth and 8% Crypto ($GBTC $ETHE)

Largest positions will be $AMZN $GTLB $TSLA $SNOW

Anyone else making allocation adjustments to/away from growth? What's your rationale?
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Sachiv's avatar
$383.3k follower assets
B2B SaaS shows resilience…$NOW results were consistent and unsurprising, yet for a few weeks I was unsure why the market was discounting it! Looking forward to some others soon, namely $SNOW $DDOG $MDB $TTD (2 in May, and 2 in June)

I suppose FUD takes everything with it! This has refreshed my confidence in the already strong management team. Link to Quartr app for the concall and report below(hope it works!):
Commonstock is a social network that amplifies the knowledge of the best investors, verified by actual track records for signal over noise. Community members can link their existing brokerage accounts and share their real time portfolio, performance and trades (by percent only, dollar amounts never shared). Commonstock is not a brokerage, but a social layer on top of existing brokerages helping to create more engaged and informed investors.