Steve Matt's avatar
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401k Buys
They didn't all map over to Commonstock so here's a breakdown of my monthly 401k buys. I buy the same dollar amount of each once per month. This month equaled ~13% more to each total cost basis.

$BIPC - Added ~12% more shares
$CRM - Added ~20% more shares
$PEP - Added ~12% more shares
$O - Added ~13% more shares
$MMM - Added ~14% more shares
$SHW - Added ~14% more shares
$MPW - Added ~16% more shares
$PLD - Added ~16% more shares
$JPM - Added ~16% more shares
$TROW - Added ~18% more shares
Samuel Meciar's avatar
$7.5m follower assets
Portfolio changes - update 3
As you well know by now, I'm a huge proponent of transparency. And despite me sharing my portfolio publicly here which gets updated like every 1-2 days, I want to make sure I can tell you what I'm doing as close to real-time as I can. So here we go, shall we?

I put my money where my mouth is, which are my high conviction bets.

There's a few companies I'm still thinking about for various reasons, such as $ETSY $ADSK $TWLO and $PINS. I'll let you know about them when done with my thinking.

Stay strong! Have a great day!
Why stocks go up? Mega-cap Tech edition.
  • It may seem simple but often the main thing that makes stocks go up is defying the fade in forecasts.
  • This is true of mega-cap tech stocks.
  • Despite consistent forecast for deceleration they have maintained 20-30% growth for over a decade now.
  • NB solid line is actual revenue growth average for $AMZN, $AAPL, $CRM, $FB, $GOOG, $MSFT, $NFLX and the dotted lines are average sell-side forward forecasts at those points in time.
  • Source.
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Samuel Meciar's avatar
$7.5m follower assets
Brief news 4/5/22
$AMD reported earnings, here visualized:

$ABNB reported earnings, here visualized:

Airbnb's CEO Brian Chesky also announced a large event coming in a week on May 11 where the company should unveil the largest changes to the platform in a decade.

$AFRM to become a first BNPL partner fully integrated to Carat operating system from enterprise payment provider $FISV.

$COIN opened up their NFT Marketplace to everyone.

$CRM ranked as #1 CRM provider by IDC for 9th year in a row.

$DOCU hires Steve Shute, a former SAP leader with over 25 years of experience to help DocuSign scale beyond e-signatures; grow Agreement Cloud.

$PATH announced integration with $CRM's MuleSoft.

$PLTR won a $90m 5-year contract with HHS.

$ROKU announced new shoppable ad experiences in OneView, new collaboration with $MSFT + new Roku Originals and Roku Brand Studio programs.

$S completed an acquisition of Attivo Networks, a leading identity security provider.

$SQ and $RAD partnered to provide Afterpay's BNPL for everyday items.
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Samuel Meciar's avatar
$7.5m follower assets
Brief news 28/4/22
$AAPL under regulatory pressures introduced Self Service Repair Store, available in the US and should expand outside US, starting in Europe later this year.

$ABNB reached 2 billion searches in their "I'm flexible" search, which was designed to serve people who are primarily passionate travelers with hybrid/remote work. The "I'm flexible" offering was introduced in May 2021.

$COUR announced earnings, here visualized:

$CRM announced new innovations in Salesforce Flow, a suite of automation technologies, with ability to help customers quickly automate any complex business process on the Salesforce Customer 360 Platform.

$ENPH announced earnings, here visualized:

they also announced an expansion of battery storage in Michigan.

$GOOGL announced earnings, here visualized:

$MSFT announced earnings, here visualized:

$PATH appointed Robert Enslin as a Co-CEO of the company. Robert previously worked as a former executive for $GOOGL Cloud and has about 30 years of enterprise software experience.

$PINS reported earnings, here visualized:

$PYPL reported earnings, here visualized:

$QCOM reported earnings, here visualized:

$SPOT reported earnings, here visualized:

$SQ announced a launch of Square Loans for Canadian Businesses, giving SMBs a simple access to funds and eliminating another major pain point associated with running a business.

$TWLO welcomes 2 new executives, Reeny Sondhi as a First Chief Digital Officer and Amy Holcroft as First Chief Privacy Officer. Both of those roles are new to Twilio. Reeny previously worked as Chief Security Officer at Autodesk. Amy previously worked at HP where she was a privacy leader for 13 years.

Woah, that was a lot of results haha. Looking for $ROKU $TEAM $AMZN and $AAPL today.
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What are your thoughts on $COUR' generally? I think it's really promising to see that their-

  • Total revenue was $120.4 million, up 36% from $88.4 million a year ago.
  • Gross profit was $77.6 million or 64.5% of revenue, up 57% from $49.5 million a year ago. Non-GAAP gross profit was $78.2 million or 64.9% of revenue, up 58% from $49.6 million a year ago.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $(11.0) million or (9.1)% of revenue, compared to $(10.1) million or (11.5)% of revenue a year ago.
  • Net cash used in operating activities was $(38.3) million, compared to $(4.3) million a year ago. Free cash flow was $(42.2) million, compared to $(8.6) million a year ago.
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Corporate Venture Funds
Hey everyone,

My latest memo revolved around $COIN venture fund. I feel that "in-house" venture capital arms are becoming more mainstream. For many years, companies like $CRM, $ORCL, and $SAP have found ways to identify potentially disruptive technology that is adjacent to their own. One of the primary reasons for investing in these companies is that the larger entity can "preview" (for lack of a better word) how these start-ups perform without investing the time and capital needed to develop a competing product themselves.

As a stock, Coinbase has been all over the place. It's been public for exactly 1 year, and is down about 50% from its IPO. Although the stock price tends to move in parallel with large protocols like Bitcoin and Ethereum, I think a lot of investors are not taking to heart what CEO Brian Armstrong wrote in his shareholder note in the S-1 filing.

Armstrong made it clear that Coinbase's revenue and profits would ebb and flow in the short term given the current adoption of crypto. However, he stressed that in a long-term view, Coinbase could end up being at the center of many different aspects of the broader crypto spectrum.

I took a look at Coinbase Venture's portfolio and was stunned to see that they have made 250 investments. Several of these companies are now valued at billions of dollars. Although these are "paper gains" and not yet realized, there is the potential for Coinbase to realize windfalls of cash in a liquidity event.

Whether these valuations are justified or not is hard to know. But with top-notch VC's like A16Z and Sequoia now getting involved, I'd like to think there is some validity to the crypto space. Moreover, data from Pitchbook suggests that 2022 will be a record year for crypto fundraising. Of course, the notion of FOMO is playing a big part here (and also probably influencing the valuations, too).

But at a high level, I think Coinbase is extremely well-positioned to move past its competition given the number of different services it is exposed to via its venture fund, as well as the potential opportunity for strategic alliances / outright M&A should it choose to pursue that route.

Please let me know what you think!

The Devastation Continues
Here are a ton of stocks at lows and appear to be headed lower:

$JPM - JPMorgan Chase & Co. - Banks - Diversified - $386.69B

$BAC - Bank of America Corporation - Banks - Diversified - $317.55B

$ASML - ASML Holding N.V. - Semiconductor Equipment & Materials - $257.15B

$VZ - Verizon Communications Inc. - Telecom Services - $221.35B

$NKE - NIKE, Inc. - Footwear & Accessories - $211.96B

$ADBE - Adobe Inc. - Software - Infrastructure - $204.90B

$CRM - Salesforce, Inc. - Software - Application - $187.74B

$PYPL - PayPal Holdings, Inc. - Credit Services - $112.45B

$BLK - BlackRock, Inc. - Asset Management - $106.91B

$WBD - Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. - - Entertainment - $58.36B

$ILMN - Illumina, Inc. - Diagnostics & Research - $53.47B

$ADSK - Autodesk, Inc. - Software - Application - $44.78B

$A - Agilent Technologies, Inc. - Diagnostics & Research - $38.87B

$ALGN - Align Technology, Inc. - Medical Devices - $33.79B

$COIN - Coinbase Global, Inc. - Software - Application - $33.18B

$STT - State Street Corporation - Asset Management - $27.92B

$TWLO - Twilio Inc. - Internet Content & Information - $24.68B

$HUBS - HubSpot, Inc. - Software - Application - $20.53B

$SWKS - Skyworks Solutions, Inc. - Semiconductors - $20.04B

$PAYC - Paycom Software, Inc. - Software - Application - $19.25B

$KMX - CarMax, Inc. - Auto & Truck Dealerships - $14.95B

$DPZ - Domino's Pizza, Inc. - Restaurants - $14.26B

$PINS - Pinterest, Inc. - Internet Content & Information - $14.23B

$ETSY - Etsy, Inc. - Internet Retail - $14.15B
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THIS is what i’m talking about, very aesthetically pleasing post, thanks for putting this together 💪🏼
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Highs & Lows Weekly #7
Commentary on Current Trends
  • There are almost no stocks showing up on the strong short term list. The market is indiscriminately selling almost everything, even the industries that had been holding up well in recent weeks.

  • The weak short term list is more than 10 times larger than the strong short term list. Again, long duration equities (biotech, software, internet, etc) dominate the list. Note also that industries that had been strong in recent weeks are turning negative - Gold, resources, oil and gas, etc.

  • Defensives - Utilities, REITs, Consumer Packaged Goods - remain in strong long term uptrends despite recent near term selloffs. The market has fled into these names as a defensive reaction to a risk off environment.

  • The selloff in debt markets has weighed substantially on financial stocks. The yield curve has flattened significantly, which has led investors to begin selling bank stocks. Also, the recent increase in mortgage interest rates bodes poorly for mortgage origination and refinance at major lenders.

  • Some of the largest and most well thought of companies in the market now sit atop the weak long term trend list. This includes: $FB, $TSM, $JPM, $HD, $BAC, $DIS, $CSCO, $ADBE, and $CRM. The market has finally “come for the Generals” of the market after selling small and midcap stocks for nearly a year.

For more insight into what stocks are trending up/down be sure to check out our latest edition of Highs & Lows Weekly!

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