A lot of people have criticized me for being all over the place.

They're right. This is a challenging time to invest and I'm willing to change my mind as the information changes

It's my money and I'm doing what I feel is best

Added two new positions:

#1

7Y Return: +700%

Market Cap $5B

5Y Annual Rev growth: 29%

5Y Annual EPS growth: 71%

FCF Margin 18%

TTM P/E 6

#2

5Y Return: +1,000%

Market Cap: <$1B

5Y Revenue Growth: 19%

5Y Gross margin improved from 30% to 70%

An update on Schwab as we head into earnings April 17. TLDR I think fears are over blown and this is a great opportunity for Long-term investors

NEW VIDEO: There are different factors that influence stock prices over the short and long term. I discuss some of these differences and compare $NVDA $AMD and $TSM

Spoiler $TSM is a better buy than both $AMD and $NVDA IMO

#stockmarket #investing #semiconductorindustry #techstocks #nvidia #amd #tsm

Expert interview w/ $SNOW competitor highlighting Snowlfake's opportunity in data science vs Databricks.

These interviews are my favorite way to go a level deeper in my research.14-day free trial to test the service:https://bit.ly/3SaS65v

The Growth Curve 002 (FREE)

I just published a buy alert on $META today. Would love for you to check it out and share with your network if you find it valuable!

Tons of macro, industry, and execution fears. Wall Street doesn't believe in Reality Labs. I do.

I am so grateful and appreciative of all of you ❤️. I received the unfortunate news that I lost my job yesterday.

Hey everyone,

2022 has been a heck of a year. There are so many people that have it so much harder than I do. I fully realize that.

But it’s also okay to acknowledge when things are tough.

February of this year was one of the best and worst months of my life.

I got a new job that paid well, had some incredible teammates, and allowed me to help more people learn about investing.

Sadly, my dad also passed away from aggressive cancer that was discovered only a couple of months earlier.

I left the active duty Air Force in 2018 because my wife and I decided that we wanted to prioritize time with family. At the time, we were stationed in Washington State and both of our families lived in Florida.

So we worked hard, made some sacrifices, took some risks, and ended up living in Florida. Closer to both of our families than we had been since 2011. We also got to spend more time with our families in the first few months of living in Florida than we had in the previous 7 years combined.

In 2021, my parents moved to within 5 minutes of where we live now because my mom retired from 30+ years of teaching and my dad had a history of health issues that we felt made it best for them to be close to us.

Then in December, we got the horrible news of his cancer.

This has been an exhausting ride for me professionally since leaving active duty in 2018. I lost my job at the beginning of the pandemic and was fortunate to stay gainfully employed until I got the news yesterday.

I share all of that to say there have been times when I’ve second-guessed the risks I took leaving the military and joining startups. But at the same time, those risks led us to where we are today as a family… and allowed me to spend more time with my dad in the few months before he passed than I did since I started college in 2007.

Through these ups and downs, a few things are very clear to me.

The cost for paid memberships is currently $24/month or $199/year. On Monday, July 18th, the price is increasing to $29/month or $248/year.

See you all Saturday for our next free tech roundup email.

Our first paid deep dive will be out on Tuesday, July 19th. I’ll be putting my own money into the company two days after the report comes out.

Wishing you all the very best,

Austin

First up we have Bill Gurley essentially doubling down on $SFIX I think Gurley has a pretty undeniable track record as a private investor, but I can't help but wonder what he sees in this stock?

Is he hoping for an acquisition and a quick return here?

Next, we have $U and $IS all-stock merger. Unity also cut full-year guidance and is down 8% pre-market while IS is up 57%. Those initial reactions tell us how the market feels about this announcement

$DOCN got downgraded from Buy to Sell at Goldman... a pretty harsh "double-downgrade". Goldman cites expectations of softening demand and fading tailwinds in segments that have done well over the past 12 to 18 months.

Last and probably most concerning is that fastener maker Fastenal $FAST saw signs of "softening demand" in May and June. I would expect more companies to come out with results citing similar as we are likely already in a recession.

Does this mean we should sell all of our stocks? I'm personally not. But I'm in the accumulation phase of my career with a lot of years left of investing ahead.

I do think it's very important to own the RIGHT companies at the RIGHT valuations. $FAST got WAY overvalued on a P/E basis as indicated by the black line (current price) being way above the blue line which represents its average P/E of 30 since 2011. We can see earnings have grown 11% per year since then and analysts were expecting 18%, 7%, and 7% earnings growth over the next three years.

If those estimates come down and/or the results miss, then Fastenal's P/E isn't as low as it looks and could compress even more.

Palantir $PLTR has the potential to serve a very large TAM but they have extremely long sales cycles and their customers have very long and hands-on implementations.

I also see a pretty significant risk in the fact that Alex Karp personally led many of their deals which was possible with under 100 customers. However, in order to scale to thousands of customers (which they will have to do) they're bringing on a professional salesforce.

So essentially, I'm a fan of what the company does but see customer concentration, long sales cycles, and sales force enablement as key risks.

It's currently too expensive for it's revenue growth and lack of profitability.

I'd be interested in buying under $6/share especially given everything else that has sold off.