@austin

Austin Lieberman's avatar

$457.1M follower assets

Proud Dad, Husband, and Veteran.

Long-term investor.
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Austin Lieberman's avatar
$457.1m follower assets
What's Your Favorite Defense Stock?
Curious if anyone is considering $RTX $NOC $LMT or $BA as we enter an era of increased defense spending
RTX
9 VotesPoll ends on: 06/28/22
Austin Lieberman's avatar
$457.1m follower assets
Austin Lieberman's avatar
$457.1m follower assets
What Have the Last 2 Years Taught You?
GOAL: I'd love for our amazing community here to open source the most important lessons we've learned over the last 2 years with all of the volatility.

Why: Thanks to all of YOU amazing people. Whether you create content on Commonstock, or lean towards consuming/learning we are building a special place for investors of all levels to learn and improve.

With all of the craziness going on, this is our opportunity to make an impact and help investors at any stage by sharing our lessons learned to possibly help others avoid making the same mistakes we did.

No matter your experience level or performance, I'd love to have your contributions in this memo. We will then create bite-sized content and shareables to disseminate to users on Commonstock, but also across our social media channels.

We will be sure to tag your Twitter accounts and link to your Commonstock account if we share your lessons learned to help you get some followers.
If you are actively investing then Buy and hold qualify is not a strategy. One needs to be broadly in-tune with market mood to survive and thrive longer term.
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$457.1m follower assets
Full Transparency: The Pain Continues
If I'm going to share during the good times, I'm going to share during the bad. Over the last month, the portfolio is down $10k.

Since Feb 15, 2022, I've contributed $67,500 so I'm currently down roughly $18,000

No changes to the portfolio today and intend to keep buying every two weeks as long as I am able to. Multiples are coming down across the board and I believe these are enduring businesses so I have no intention of selling at lower multiples.

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Austin Lieberman's avatar
$457.1m follower assets
End of the Week Portfolio Update: Ouch
Having an issue with my brokerage so I disconnected it from Commonstock... but don't worry, I'm not hiding my horrible returns! will manually share for now

Long $CRWD $DDOG $SNOW $GTLB $TTD $TSLA $RKLB $NET and one more stock I just added today. Will update next week.

Portfolio strategy & market volatility

Here is the current portfolio and positions. As a reminder, this portfolio is designed to receive a total of $370,000 in contributions from 2022 - 2032. Since inception, the portfolio has received $65,500 so we are at roughly 18% of the lifetime contributions.

That’s why I’m comfortable with position sizes up to 20% right now. A 20% position would be roughly $11,000 which would only be 3% of the $370,000 that will eventually be contributed.
We have a long way to go before I’m concerned about portfolio concentration. This is my approach and people need to make their own decisions, but I feel it’s helpful to give context around how I’m structuring this portfolio.

On the current volatility and $13,450 loss. Does it feel good? Nope. Every day I share my positions and portfolio I get comments from the experts who have timed everything and hedged perfectly telling me how bad I am.

I’m not concerned. The money I have invested is one aspect of our broader financial plan. We are conservative with our personal finances and this portfolio is designed with a 10+ year time horizon. That’s my margin of safety and I have no investors pressuring me if I’m in the negative for three years.

As long as I can keep adding to the portfolio monthly, that’s what I’ll do. With that in mind, the market going sideways or down is a GOOD thing for this portfolio and for our future finances. If I own the right businesses, they will likely be stronger after volatility in the market and economic downturns. If the businesses keep performing well, the stock prices will catch up at some point.

The caveat that DIY investors HAVE to be aware of is the fact that their earnings and savings power could be negatively impacted in the case of a severe economic downturn, job loss, etc. If this happens, it complicates things, but the buffer we have from living below our means and the emergency savings we have should help.

Portfolio Company News
Cloudflare (NET)

Crowdstrike (CRWD)


Question: Why do you win?
Answer: “Nobody wants more agents. Everybody wants less. So we come in, we rip out a whole bunch of different agents. We charge you less than what you were paying before. We actually come in and do hard math. We do something called a business value assessment, where we come in and show you, here's what you're spending today. Here's what you would spend with us. And on average, there's 150% ROI in the first year. We've done 3,000 of these. So the data that we have is not N of one, it's a real end. And so we're super proud of being able to show how we're different than everybody else. And that's basically why we win.”

Datadog (DDOG)

Answer: “Datadog is designed to monitor applications delivered in public and hybrid clouds, and it's used to handle the complexity of modern DevOps. And by that, I mean containers orchestrated by Kubernetes, microservices, et cetera. So that's what its use case is for. It was built for that. And some of the reasons why it's been able to be adopted so frictionlessly is the way the product was designed means that clients can import their data, use our integrations and can be up and live with reports very quickly, so no professional services.”

Question: “You've recently introduced new functionality around security. How should we think about the opportunity there?”

Answer: “Most of the security market, as investors know it is in the areas of endpoint e-mail and network. And that's not where we are. We're in cloud security and application. And so when you look at that that sort of spectrum, we're trying to add value to DevOps and provide additional monitoring signals related to security topics, cybersecurity. And so that's where we're focused. We're not looking into their markets. We're focused on our market.”

GitLab (GTLB)
  • GitLab reports Q1 2023 Financial Results: The company reported $87.4 million in revenue, up 75% year over year (YoY) which beat analyst expectations by $9.28 million. Non-GAAP EPS was -$0.18 compared to -$0.44 in Q1 2022, which beat analyst expectations by $0.08.

  • Scotiabank started coverage on GitLab with Outperform: “Regarding the valuations of many software companies, and that share prices could still decline. However, Altman added that "software assets" are in a better position than earlier in the year even though companies are acting more cautious with their outlooks.”

Rocket Lab (RKLB)

“Rocket Lab has provided power to multiple spacecraft as part of NASA’s Heliophysics Division missions including the Parker Solar Probe, the first-ever mission to “touch” the Sun that launched in 2018, and the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission, a robotic space mission to study Earth’s magnetosphere that launched in 2015.”

Snowflake (SNOW)
"Snowflake’s new Cybersecurity workload provides a unified, secure, and scalable data platform for helping security teams eliminate blind spots and respond to threats at cloud-scale.”

"Customers like CSAA Insurance Group, DoorDash, Dropbox, Figma, and TripActions are leveraging Snowflake’s Cybersecurity workload to unify data, gain near-unlimited visibility, and combat threats faster with powerful analytics.”

Tesla (TSLA)



The Trade Desk (TTD)
  • No significant news
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Love the transparency and can tell you you are not alone out there. This year has been taking a toll on many traders and investors both retail and professional. I’m sitting right about the same levels as you nearly cut in half on the year. Best to hunker down and weather the economic storm. Hang in there!
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Will Today Marke the 2022 Bottom in the Stock Market?
I'm not sure sentiment can get much worse so betting $QQQ is higher in 1 month than it is today.

Do you agree?
Prediction:
$QQQ will be over $289/share on 7/10/2022
32 Votes
Voted no— we're banking (_see what we did there?)_ on inflation staying high and the Fed being forced to continue to raise rates, which will put further pressure on asset valuations.
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SNOW Earnings Prediction > $156/sh: Horrible idea but I'm doing it anyways
I'm 95% this prediction will be wrong.. everything is down pre-market and every time any tech company reports, the stock automatically goes down...

SO I HAVE THEM RIGHT WHERE I WANT THEM.

As you can see in my connected portfolio, $SNOW is my largest position. I'll actually be adding to it this morning before they announce earnings after the market closes today.

I fully intend to hold (and probably add to) my position for years so this poll is just for fun.... maybe it will teach a good lesson in how hard earnings reactions are to predict!

Here's why I think $SNOW is coiled and potentially ready for a strong bounce....over the next 8 years

At their Investor Day in 2021, management established FY29 targets $10billion in product revenue and 1,400 customers spending over $1billion

In FY29 management expects to be growing product revenue 30% YoY, with 75% gross margin, 10% operating income, and 15% non-GAAP free cash flow.

The stock has sold off a ton and next-twelve-months EV/R has come down from 58 in July to 18 now. A lot of people will say "you idiots are never going to make any money investing in unprofitable companies at 18x revenue"

But in FY27, analysts expect $10.14B in revenue, with $913.0 million in net income, and EPS of $1.99

Here's a graph showing what the return could be through FY 28 if Snowflake hits analyst expectations for revenue (I think these estimates could prove to be very conservative) and has a blended P/S ratio of 10.0 down from 27 today...

Shares would be $380.0 which is a 193% total return an a 21% annualized return.

The question then becomes will they execute? There's obviously no way to predict what happens through FY28, but we do know Fran Slootman and his executive team are proven exceptional operators.

They were excellent at Servicenow $NOW and already have $SNOW tracking above their ambitious 2021 Investor Day targets.

Here's a quote from CFO Mike Scarpelli at the JMP Securities Tech Conference on March 7, 2022 that shows how they're already exceeding expectations.

At the 2021 investor day they were targeting $1.68 billion in revenue in 2023. After last quarter they have adjusted that to $1.9 billion, 13% higher than their initial target. They also ended FY21 with a Q4 Adjusted free cash flow margin of 27% and full-year Adj. FCF margin of 12%... well ahead of their previous target which was break-even.

So the company is out performing management and analyst expectations. We've seen strength from the public cloud providers and $SNOW's multiple has come down drastically.

For my personal portfolio, all of this equates to my highest-conviction position with a 3+ year holding period. I will monitor execution along the way, but I think we COULD see a nice jump after earnings with the strong caveat that the entire market is currently in meltdown mode so who knows.
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Prediction:
Validated to: No
$SNOW will be over $152/share on 5/27/2022
Agree
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23 Votes
Austin Lieberman's avatar
$457.1m follower assets
Major Allocation Shift to Growth
I've had about 15% invested in Dividend style companies that have been relatively protected from the recent volatility.

This morning I'm adjusting my allocation to 82% growth and 8% Crypto ($GBTC $ETHE)

Largest positions will be $AMZN $GTLB $TSLA $SNOW

Anyone else making allocation adjustments to/away from growth? What's your rationale?
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I’ve been tempted, but I’ve decided to keep my weight untouched at about 50 DRIP - 50 growth. My RE portfolio grows by itself at this point so no need to add. Also my 401k and IRAs are dividend driven also.

At 48, health permitting, I plan to keep adding new money to both for at least 5 to 8 years (love my job!) and then leverage dividends to reinvest.


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If you Tweet it, it will Happen
To every child who has dreams of being an astronaut… just tweet it! (And post about it on Commonstock of course) 😂😎🚀🚀🚀💸

Do kids still want to be astronauts? I thought they all wanted to be "influencers". Anyway...

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