Samuel Meciar's avatar
$14.5m follower assets
Portfolio changes - update 16
decided to swap my $TEAM shares for $NOW. $TEAM is a big player in a software tools space, primarily for SW Teams, IT Teams and Business teams. every single of those categories I have an exposure to mostly through players like $MSFT $GOOGL $CRM and will have to some degree through $NOW but a lot more besides that.

this company was going through my mind for a bit, even researched it before and was prepared to buy in but paused it then because I believed there's not much stuff it adds to my overall exposure given that I had multiple companies that had some similar pieces of solutions to ServiceNow. a lot has changed since then, as you can see and now I believe it fits my portfolio well. this weekend and on Monday I finally went deeper again and I'm convinced I found a lot of great things I like to look at, an awesome fit for my aggregated exposure around specific investment themes around which I built my portfolio, their optionality in the space is truly insane and the leadership is nothing short of excellence. it scored very high, placing it at 4th place when ranking the amount of spaces I want to be exposed to, just behind $MSFT $GOOGL and $SNOW.

so I ended up buying $NOW today and also added to my semi allocation $AMD and $NVDA to compensate for the liquidation of my $QCOM position, like I discussed in my other post.
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Samuel Meciar's avatar
$14.5m follower assets
Portfolio preview 19/6/22
Things are stabilizing over there. A few moves I have in my mind but most of those will stay at the top. $AMD likely to join the top 12 club as I liquidate my $QCOM position like I said in my previous post.

also want to add to my $TSLA at some point to make it roughly 10% position after we went and tried out MYP yesterday with my dad (tried M3P last summer). there's no EV even close to the Tesla experience. I'll probably hold on though until after Q2 print as I expect them to miss due to Shanghai lockdowns while WS delivery expectations remain higher than some of the reliable data checks indicate. Let's see.
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Samuel Meciar's avatar
$14.5m follower assets
$AMD's acquisition of $XLNX was one of the best moves Lisa could've possibly made and the decision will pay large dividends for years to come.

here, well illustrated in this graphics from $AMD's latest financial analyst day:

Zynq and Versal SoCs are Xilinx's products. now you should get a picture of just how huge this acquisition is in terms of future growth potential beyond industries $AMD used to be in.

big game changer widening the product portfolio and growth trajectory for $AMD instantly! at this point, there's a large overlap between $AMD and $QCOM in terms of why I initially bought Qualcomm in my portfolio (mostly 5G and IoT thesis) and so I plan to sell my $QCOM for $AMD as I'm much more bullish on $AMD and Lisa! large things coming for $AMD and $NVDA in terms of edge computing, FPGAs and OpenRANs. here, some snippets from both suggesting how big of a deal O-RANs are:

results of $XLNX acq already paying off for $AMD:

on O-RANs from $NVDA's last earnings call:

for reference, a recent report suggests O-RAN market should be worth $32B in 2030, representing a 42% CAGR between now and then.

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Samuel Meciar's avatar
$14.5m follower assets
Kantar's 2022 Kantar BrandZ Top 100 Most Valuable Global Brands list
So Kantar just released their annual list of the world's most valuable brands.

Notable moves - $GOOGL (Main + YT) $TSLA $MSFT (LinkedIn), $AAPL reclaiming top place (+55%)

Placements in the top 100 from my holdings:

$NVDA 11.
$ADBE 19.
$GOOGL (YT) 24.
$TSLA 29.
$QCOM 33.
$MSFT (LinkedIn) 40.
$CRM 43.
$AMD 52.
$MSFT (Xbox) 56.
$MELI 71.
$ADYEY 96.
$ABNB 99.

This pretty much underlines why $MSFT and $GOOGL both have such place in my portfolio. They are monsters able to produce some of the best and most well-known brands in the world.
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Samuel Meciar's avatar
$14.5m follower assets
Microsoft’s new Xbox TV app streams games without a console later this month
Cloud Gaming is coming big time. The switch from consoles (on-prem) to cloud will be both more lucrative to customer because of long-term updated HW on the backbone and availability everywhere and for manufacturer by decreasing costs and immediate deployment. Therefore the ROI for both sides makes a lot of sense. And what does occur when there's an innovation that makes sense for all sides? You're right, it's an S curve.

  • Streaming of audio & video was unlocked by 3G & 4G technology
  • Streaming of games is just being unlocked by 5G technology

Who's winning here? Well, a few examples: $AMD $QCOM $NVDA $MSFT

A Weekly Update on Special Situations
Dexcom $DXCM denied previous reporting that it was in active takeover talks with Insulet $PODD.

Kohl’s $KSS reportedly received bids from Sycamore Partners and Franchise Group $FRG. Reports that negotiations could drag on for weeks amid challenging macro backdrop. [Kohl's now in exclusive discussions with Franchise Group).

Afya $AFYA 40% shareholder Bertelsmann SE disclosed in 13D that it plans to purchase $129mm additional shares.

Overstock $OSTK investor Simcoe Capital disclosed a 6% stake in 13D filing.

Tabula Rasa HealthCare $TRHC investor Indaba Capital disclosed a 20% stake and intention to engage with management in 13D filing.

WisdomTree $WETF entered into a cooperation agreement with Lion Point and ETFS Capital.

XPO Logistics $XPO filed a Form 10 registration statement for the planned spin-off of its brokered transportation platform.

Frontier $ULCC added reverse termination fee to Spirit Airways $SAVE deal.

Qualcomm $QCOM reportedly interested in acquiring a stake in Softbank’s Arm.
Sachiv's avatar
$776k follower assets
Profits are made on the way down…
Agree with the ⬇️ philosophy /approach. Here are my names to add to that list:

$QCOM - growth in every sector of chip use, with a lot capex model helps this company remain low risk with high interest rates…a global talent pool and legal strength, and partnerships across industries makes this company important to governments

$TXN - a shift away from China Mfg will help lower geographic risk. 40% of revenue currently from China. Very strong capital allocators and generates tons of OCF/FCF…no need to look at BS “adjusted” metrics

$TSLA - strong supply chain management(batteries,
Minerals, and components) and in house problem solving vs using consultants to maintain strong margins and operating leverage, in an increasingly difficult world, & uses leverage from other related companies like SpaceX, and has built positive reputations in Europe Asia and the Americas already…

$SWAV - a small company relatively, it’s basically using a razor and blade model to serve the cardiovascular calcification issue globally. It’s recently won permission to serve the China market, and a randomized study has just been released where patients after two years of receiving their treatment are doing better than those who underwent regular angioplasty (stents, etc). At these valuations and improving topline, bottom line, and OCF/FCF numbers & having no debt, I find a global reopening scenario (regardless of economic trend for the next 12-18 months) a great time to relook at $SWAV

Thanks to @osayawe_terry for his post, jogging my thoughts…and these are just a few of the top of my head. Hope to add more as the storm continues to brew! Thanks for following!

Samuel Meciar's avatar
$14.5m follower assets
Portfolio changes - update 10
Hello friends, I got an update for you, now with a rounded number

I decided to sell $AFRM + $PAYC, and here's my thinking:

  • I get a pretty decent exposure to $AFRM anyways through $SHOP, not only are they a sole processor for Shop Pay installments but are also invested in $AFRM, own about 7% of the shares (Class A+B combined)
  • I recognize the power of $SQ's Afterpay in combination with CApp and Square after I watched Block's Investor Day, it's just one well put ecosystem. Afterpay is also a bit larger in terms of GMV and has superior margins.

My overall plan is to just add to $SQ and $SHOP and chill.

When it comes to $PAYC I recognize the power of Square Payroll and HR solutions in combination with the whole ecosystem especially as they move more into Mid market, that's going to be interesting. Therefore it just makes sense for me to consolidate here.

I'm also selling $ZI $DOCN, no specific reason really, just want to move my capital into my highest conviction names.

Instead I went on a buying spree and got some $QCOM $RBLX $TWLO $SQ $SHOP $COUR $FVRR $HIMS $ADBE and $COIN.

Wrapping up, all $AFRM $DOCN $PAYC $ZI are great companies in my view, but like I said, it makes sense for me to consolidate, especially as I favor optionality over specialization at this point in time, while still maintaining an exposure to those players/spaces without further fragmentation.
Samuel Meciar's avatar
$14.5m follower assets
Portfolio changes - update 8
Hey friends, there's a lot of cleaning I'm doing, for real. It's getting tricky, as there's basically no companies I view as weak in my portfolio, now it's reaching a point where I have to consider just how much the position covers what I want it for and whether there's others that can do so instead, so I can consolidate further. I tend to prefer optionality over specialization. So:

  • I sold $ENPH - it's simply hard for me to pass on $TSLA at $700, I also sold $ASML as I see $AMD $NVDA and $QCOM more lucrative when looking at valuation vs revenue and earnings growth. Again, this all is about personal preferences and there's a lot of bias and other nuances of data points somewhere in my head that get me to those decisions.
  • On the other hand, I initiated positions in $SNOW and $ZS, as mentioned previously. I like this pricing.
  • I added to my positions in $ABNB $DDOG $MDB $NET $COIN (although I'm staying cautious there) $TEAM and $TSLA.
When I was studying Solar in 2015-16, I was screaming at the top of my lungs for people to buy Enphase ~$3. All the experts said avoid, while dropping their fancy acronyms and useless info. Meanwhile, our college entrepreneur program was installing Enphase on literally 100% of our residential installs. Was obvious to us they were going to be the leader in the space. Definitely been crazy over valued for a while now, wise to get out.
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