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Signal or Noise?
First up we have Bill Gurley essentially doubling down on $SFIX I think Gurley has a pretty undeniable track record as a private investor, but I can't help but wonder what he sees in this stock?

Is he hoping for an acquisition and a quick return here?
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Next, we have $U and $IS all-stock merger. Unity also cut full-year guidance and is down 8% pre-market while IS is up 57%. Those initial reactions tell us how the market feels about this announcement
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$DOCN got downgraded from Buy to Sell at Goldman... a pretty harsh "double-downgrade". Goldman cites expectations of softening demand and fading tailwinds in segments that have done well over the past 12 to 18 months.
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Last and probably most concerning is that fastener maker Fastenal $FAST saw signs of "softening demand" in May and June. I would expect more companies to come out with results citing similar as we are likely already in a recession.
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Does this mean we should sell all of our stocks? I'm personally not. But I'm in the accumulation phase of my career with a lot of years left of investing ahead.

I do think it's very important to own the RIGHT companies at the RIGHT valuations. $FAST got WAY overvalued on a P/E basis as indicated by the black line (current price) being way above the blue line which represents its average P/E of 30 since 2011. We can see earnings have grown 11% per year since then and analysts were expecting 18%, 7%, and 7% earnings growth over the next three years.

If those estimates come down and/or the results miss, then Fastenal's P/E isn't as low as it looks and could compress even more.
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Joshua Simka's avatar
Curious what's driving Gurley's enthusiasm for $SFIX--what does he know, as a board member, that's driving his conviction? I still own the shares I purchased years ago and noticed they were popping but disregarded it as "noise."
Austin Lieberman's avatar
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