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$102.6M follower assets

Private Investor. Investing in high-growth to build long-term wealth. Enjoying the ride.
Beaver Capital's avatar
$102.6m follower assets
Investing in Sports
Do you think some of these MLB teams valuations are justified? They look a bit steep to me for that operating income level… lots of brand value I guess.

Which would you prefer to own?
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Beaver Capital's avatar
$102.6m follower assets
A Big Investment Mistake: $EMQQ
I initially purchased shares of $EMQQ in mid-2020 at about $52 per share. EMQQ is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that focuses on investing in companies that are primarily based in emerging markets and involved in the e-commerce and internet sectors. The main holdings are Chinese stocks such as Tencent, Alibaba, Pinduoduo.

My initial thesis for buying:
  • Foreign stocks trade at a significant discount to their North American comparatives so are due for a valuation correction
  • Chinese and other foreign companies in the tech sector are seeing massive growth and adoption and COVID beneficiaries
  • This has the "dual engine" for wealth creation (valuation & growth)

Next, the ETF kept rising for the next several months and touched >$80 in Feb 2021. This quick gain and increase in value gave me all the confidence that I had made a very good call and was right about my initial thesis. I, of course, did not trim or sell my position at this time.

Then came the start of the downfall from $80. When it initially started to decline, I just convinced myself that nothing goes straight up and there will always be bumps in the road so it'll turn back around soon. I kept holding (and kept holding this thought). The ETF kept falling from Feb 2021 all the way to Oct 2022 to around $22 at the low. I still hold this ETF today at around a 45% loss in one of my retirement accounts. I am now more prudent and looking at when a good time to sell this ETF will be.

Lessons I learned (the hard way):
  • What is "cheap" can always get cheaper
  • There are significant geopolitical risks in investing in foreign companies (particularly China). I overlooked this risk almost completely.
  • I fell prey to many emotional biases. Especially confirmation bias and price anchoring bias.

What I have changed in my investment process:
  • I do MUCH more research into the names of companies now and also the geographies they operate in
  • I do not purchase anything right when I get the idea - I let myself think about it for awhile (helps with emotions)
  • I seek out independent advice and opinions whether that is on Commonstock, Twitter, or other channels.

Overall, this is not my first loss nor will it be my last, but I am putting the best safeguards in place to prevent the same mistake. This unrealized loss has not been too bad as the position was not significant, but the opportunity cost of this trade is still impactful. I have learned a lot from my reflections on this investment and believe I have become a better investor because of it.

Which brings me to one of my favourite quotes:
  • "Failure isn't fatal, but failure to change might be" - John Wooden

Thank you for taking the time to read!
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"Failure isn't fatal, but failure to change might be" - John Wooden

What a quote, definitely going to use that!
Beaver Capital's avatar
$102.6m follower assets
Fed Rate Decision
The odds of a 0.25% raise are fairly high at 86%. What do you think it’ll be?
What do you think the Fed do with rates tomorrow?
15 VotesPoll ended on: 3/23/2023
I’m going with 0.25%, consensus, I know, but I think Powell has been telegraphing for so long, he’ll follow through.
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$102.6m follower assets
Celebrity Investing
It seems easy for celeb’s to make significant exits when they use their brand for promotion. Lots of example similar to this. Would be interesting to see the average CAGR of celebrities vs the market!
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Wow this is actually super interesting 👀 I wonder which celeb is the best at this
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$102.6m follower assets
Withdrawals at SVB
Wow, the withdrawals attempted in one day at $SIVB were massive. This has been a crazy story to follow and I’m sure we are all now a bit more knowledgeable about banking, liquidity, risk, and the financial sector.

Credit: Charlie Bilello
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Absolutely crazy situation, hopefully this doesn't lead to contagion...
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$102.6m follower assets
Crowdstrike Q4 Earnings Snapshot
At first glance, looks very impressive (as per usual for $CRWD) with beats across the board.

Gives me comfort being a LT shareholder when execution is steady.

What are your thoughts on the ER?
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Sales execution in Q4 must have been really good to generate that sort of RPO growth (+49% or sequential add of $570mn - a record) and net new ARR of $222mn (also an all time record) in this tough selling environment. 30%+ revenue guide for FY 2023 is a standout among SaaS companies. Impressive and resilient $CRWD
Beaver Capital's avatar
$102.6m follower assets
Feb'23 - Growth Portfolio Update
Buys: $ADYEY
Sells: None

  • Still no substantial changes or adds since Nov/Dec. Sitting on some cash now, but prefer to add into weakness. Patience.

Total return: -27.9% (inception 01-23-2022)
YTD return: +22%
  • Have thought about trimming my $NVDA position slightly due to run up in price from low $100's.
  • $NU had a fantastic Q (again!) and I want to add more shares to get it to a 5-6% position.

Other comments:
  • $MELI had another amazing Q. Currently a 16% position and I have no plans to trim. Would add under $1,000.
  • $TTD also had another great Q.
  • I am satisfied with my portfolio going forward. Will add to positions on price weakness if/when it comes.

Which companies should I add to my watchlist that have been executing? Open to all new ideas!
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Beaver Capital's avatar
$102.6m follower assets
LatAm E-Comm Growth
The future CAGRs for businesses like $MELI and even $NU look promising. Lots of growth to come for these underbanked regions.
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Economics 101 🐮

Likely a better explanation of world economics than you got during college…

Which is your favorite?
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We can confirm the Australian Corporation is a very accurate depiction. especially in sunny Queensland, home of the white sandy beaches.
We have it good here ... and we know it.
That's why we have so many deadly insects, arachnids, crocs, snakes and jellyfish.
It's the natural law of balance.
If we didn't have that, everyone would want to come and live here.
Deflation vs Disinflation
I have found this to be one of the most commonly misunderstood differences in finance over the past year or two.

This graph explains it very well imo.
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Good point, I am the first who sometimes says "deflation" rather than "disinflation"
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