What Happened Last Week in Special Sits Land?
A lot - here are ten highlights!

  • Kohl's $KSS bidder Franchise Group $FRG is considering lowering its offer to $50 per share.

  • PBF Logistics $PBFX gained as PBF Energy $PBF disclosed it was mulling a takeover bid.

  • Spirit $SAVE amended its merger agreement with Frontier $ULCC, shunning JetBlue’s $JBLU $33.50 per share proposal.

  • Celsius Holdings $CELH may be a takeover target for Pepsi $PEP.

  • Occidental Petroleum $OXY may be the next takeover target of Buffett’s Berkshire $BRKB as it continues to buy additional shares.

  • Seagen $SGEN merger talks with Merck $MRK are reportedly picking up pace.

  • New Relic $NEWR Jana Partners added to its stake.

  • Kellogg $K announced spin-offs of its cereal and plant-based businesses, separating them from its snacking business.

  • Zendesk $ZEN agreed to a buyout by Hellman & Friedman + Permira.
Irish Born Investor's avatar
$16.9m follower assets
7th June 2022 - Trading Journal
Today's trading journal is brought to you by IBKR. I use IBKR as my main brokerage for both investing and trading. The ability to be able to easily set up sub accounts within my main brokerage and transfer funds between them is one of my favourite features in Interactive Brokers and allows me to easily track and switch between my Trading Acc. vs my Investing Acc & my Son's account! You can check out the platform here.

Situational awareness:
Still cautiously bullish with the indices chopping sideways and building energy for a big move. Each pull back is holding short term moving averages (10/20MA). It seems to me we are setting up to test the 50 Day MA area. What happens after that I have no idea.
Pre Market Work:
I spent my pre-market time today reviewing some of my watchlists and deciding how I would clean them up a bit. As has happened to me in the past, I've been missing a few setups and breakouts that I had identified by not tracking them effectively.

I need a much smaller FOCUSLIST along with a tiered Watchlist system. Also I have become a little frustrated with some aspects in TradingView, sometimes I realise it can be a bit "retail" when it comes to wanting to scan and see some additional information that is useful for a trader. Which is a pity because I love using it to look at charts. As mentioned previously I also use TC2000 which is a much more powerful scanner for a trader. I've decided to move the bulk of my watchlists over there and make use of that platform more whilst continuing to use TradingView for lighter work. See the platform below:

​Note I have Created "FocusList", "Watchlist", "Tracklist". I will use these tabs to try to rank my setups and stocks I am monitoring.

Trading Day:
No trades for me today. Just monitored my positions. Nothing to worry about going on in my opinion with my holdings and a nice powerful move by $ZM. I did not add to the position but may consider doing so if the week continues strong. $ASH had a breather day and $SHLX is still looking solid.

$CELH stood out to me today as a stock that could be getting ready to move upward if the market has a sustained rally.

We are sitting right at the 200 Day MA which is flat. Definitely one to watch.
End of day Thoughts:
Improving your system all the time whether for trading or investing is very important. Consistency in your process and routine helps create balance and in turn feed the potential to make good decisions on a regular basis. This can take the form of a journal, a notebook, checklists, reminders. Whatever it is try to improve slightly every day and every week in all aspects of life. That is what I am trying to do.
Notes & Open Trades:
  • $SHLX - 5% Stock Position - Entry $14.39 - Stop: $13.80
  • $ASH - 5% Stock Position - Entry $111.20 - Stop: $104
  • $ZM - August 19th $150/$170 Bull Call Spread - Cost $1.49 per contract
Please note I operate my risk with options that I can lose 100% of the premium. This is the safest way to trade them in my opinion. Even if I cut at 50% once I am setup to lose 100% within my risk threshold then I will stay ahead of my required R:R.
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Irish Born Investor's avatar
$16.9m follower assets
$CELH - Don't let bias interfere with the weight of evidence
I have a bias against $CELH mainly because I associate it with some Fintwit FURUs (no not @investmenttalk! ). Anyway, this chart caught my eye a week or so ago. I've highlighted the stages on a weekly chart.

The first highlighted yellow area would be the "ideal" buy point on that breakout. I'm sure if you zoom in there are lower entries but for the purpose of the discussion we are looking at bigger picture.

Right now $CELH is in a consolidation range at an important zone. It is long enough to consider it a Stage One. However, market conditions are poor.

When I identified this chart a week or so ago I identified it as a short, which it very well may turn out to be. Having thought about it if I did not know the ticker name I would probably have looked at it more as a stage one that could possibly break into stage two uptrend again. Instead my bias wants me to think it's going to penny stock status. This is important to recognise when analysing a chart. It is fine to have opinions but it is important not to let them blind you.

On the second chart you can see the 30 week moving average which has flattened out and is actually turning up and the stock has just risen above it with some volume accumulation in the past three weeks. The 200 Day Moving average is above (Green Line), another important hurdle.

This stock is not a buy right now but it is also not a sell. Putting my bias aside I have moved it into the watch category for possible breakout if the market conditions improve.
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Irish Born Investor's avatar
$16.9m follower assets
24th May 2022 - Trading Journal
I have decided to move my Daily Trading Journal from DayOneApp to Commonstock. I hope that this may be useful to others in both it's format and the content. Writing a trading journal is a very good habit to get into and enables the writer to reflect on their thoughts, mood and bias. I will attempt to post this journal each day that I trade or study the markets in real time.

I have only just begun looking to trade actively again after a hiatus due to market conditions. I have spent all of this time studying styles that I hope will suit me. Mainly along the lines of Minervini, Weinstein & O'Neill. I have consumed a huge amount of information in the past few months and feel confident in my ability to weather this storm and be well equipped when the market eventually sees sunshine again. This is a generational moment in the markets and I want to be one of the bubble class of 2020 left standing.

  • Situational awareness:

Situational awareness represents my feelings and awareness of the bias of the market going into the day. Clearly today that bias was bearish. We are in a strong bear trend, the SNAP results last night seemed to kick off a reverse to the downside. I suppose this was a bellwether or possibly some leveraged whale just blew up! Who knows...

  • Pre Market Work:

I am in no rush to place trades and I have no intention of placing new trades each day. I will be selective especially in these conditions. I spent the morning doing the same routine I have for the past few days. Looking through charts on longer time frames and highlighting anything that came up that looked like it was ready. The only sectors primed for moves are Aerospace/Defence, Shipping/Transport & Commodities (Oil, Gas, Coal). I am reluctant to dive heavy into commodities as the trade is a bit long in the tooth and everyone and their auntie is trying to trade them. Once participation reaches peak then the trades will begin to fail. That said there are setups and they are worth considering with tight stops.

Mainly, I would like to spend my time identifying the stocks in Stage 1 that may move to Stage 2 as the market turns. Tech is still being decimated but there are a couple of very early signs of bottoming in $ZM also interesting bottoming forming on weekly charts in $AMPL & $JOBY. These could just as easily leg down again, only time will tell.

  • Trading Day:

Once the market opened I used my sector lists to indentify what was holding up. $NOC was a clear RS name today and was already on my focus list with a nice VCP (Minverini) setup. My entry was more anticipation than breakout but I like the setup and the solidity in the name and sector. Also the Moving averages all converged suggest a strong setup in my favour. With a minimum 2.5:1 Risk:Reward I opened a 5% position which is quite small but I am starting slowly.

  • End of day Thoughts:
I am still trying to structure my watchlists better at the moment they are a bit messy apart from the focus lists. I need to work on these. Also I have updated my TraderSync so that it is cleaner with better tags and settings. Long overdue.

I had several Shorts on watch today $COIN, $NET, $CELH all of which look like absolute manure and IMO will probably half from here but as volatility gets more crazy I am reluctant to press shorts too much and am uncomfortable holding them multiday and don't want to day trade much.

  • Notes & Open Trades:
$NOG - June 17th Call $30
$NOC - 5% Stock Position : Entry $464.50, Stop $455.50
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This is so insightful! I don't really know much about a trader's routine so it's really interesting to learn what your daily actions consist of. I agree a journal is a great way to record your decision making and your thoughts at times. Really love the format and clarity of the first post. Look forward to next one.
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Upcoming Earnings Calendar (Feb 28th - Mar 4th)
Hey guys! Here's the upcoming earnings calendar! Two of my holdings, $SE and $SOFI report next week, so I'll be paying significant attention to both. Other than that, I'm also interested in seeing what retailers like $TGT $BBY and $COST have to say about supply chain issues and inflation.

Good luck to everyone!

If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

MON:


TUE:


WED:


THU:


FRI:
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Hello CommonStock!

Below are my portfolio holdings:

$UPST
$UPWK
$CRWD
$PLTR
• $MAGT.TO
$PATH
$CFLT
$AGC (Grab)

Portfolio 2:
$SE
$ZS
$AMD
$STLD
$LC
$AMBA
$SI

Watchlist Companies:
$AMPL
$MNDY
$DDOG
$DLO
$SOFI
$CELH
$NET

I'm looking forward to engaging with everyone to discuss Technology, Analytics platforms, Cloud, Improving as an Investor, and more!
Michael Zimmerman's avatar
$33.5m follower assets
$CELH was down about 10% post-earnings this AM and has been bought back quickly. It’s now up over 1% for the day.

I didn’t have caffeine a single time in my life until this year at age 26. I had coffee a few times earlier in the year, but once I tried Celsius, I haven’t had a single coffee again.

I am bullish on the product/company as it’s the healthiest energy drink on the market IMO.

If you want to learn more about $CELH — follow @jonah on his Commonstock + Twitter.
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