Loan related companies has a turbulent COVID period, since they had big provisions in 2020, then reverted in 2021 and now are coming back to normality. You can see that even returning provisions, earnings remained flat, with EPS increasing after massive buybacks last year.

Provision dynamics are fundamental to understand $AXP business development:

Overall, other business indicators are going well too, like network volumes and total loans:

In conclusion, $AXP is a value company, with a steady growth, good capital returned, nice premium positioning, verticalized, in a segment that doesn't stop growing. It is a nice addition to a solid portfolio.

Most apparel brands and retail chains are struggling really bad in this harsh consumer environment. $LEVI is a very welcome exemption, IMHO. Results are mild, that is true, but it is still in the positive field.

Still, the brand is iconic, valuation is attractive and long-term fundamentals are there. We are never sure how retail will be in a few years ahead, but strong brands will sell, no matter how. Right now, the bets are in DTC growth, where most of the successful brands are working, but $LEVI can win in many different scenarios.

Long-term fundamentals are strong, results right now are holding well, and the market is viewing the company like other inferior brands, with lesser results.

Share buybacks usually don't get the same attention as dividends, but the results in the long-term can be amazing. As an example, take a look at Autozone ($AZO). That's a good company, with a net income CAGR of 10.43% since 2009, that looks solid, but not spectacular. But when you look at the shares outstanding, $AZO has reduced by over 60% in the same period, that resulted in an amazing 18.95% EPS CAGR.

Autozone shares outstanding since 2009

That's a lot for any standard you want to use, especially for a relatively common business. Sometimes we found great results in companies that don't look that attractive in a first glance. Ordinary business can deliver surprising results when they are consistent in the long run.

$AZO returns since 2009 compared to SP500.

I'm not an expert in technology or design, but reading very well written explanations like @invesquotes seeking alfa article, facts became more clear: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542006-why-adobe-buying-figma-for-20b

In a very simple way, the acquisition was expensive and there is some risk that it is not going to be worth in the long run. However, thinking about business, Adobe hit a home run buying its best competitor, adding capabilities to an already great portfolio of products, widening the moat and reinforcing its leader position

After all, we stand at a point where an investor has to make a decision. The most important thing for me is the investor end game. Most of them are not aware of how important it is to have a clear objective in mind. Do you want to earn money in the market or to become a shareholder and win by the success of the business at the long-term? Both choices don't look that different, but in moments like this, you have to recognize it.

If you are worried about the market in the sort term, Adobe will probably finish the year in a worse position than it was before the deal; But if you want to build wealth by being a shareholder of great companies, that will thrive in the long-term, perhaps this move by Adobe consolidated years of good results ahead. Nothing is guaranteed, but buy and holding is making choices that put chances in your favor as much as possible.

Hibbet ($HIBB) is a sports shoes and apparel retailer, which main characteristic is being located in underserved communities. As of July 30, 2022, $HIBB operated 1117 stores of three different brands: Hibbett, City Gear and Sports Additions. Most stores are located in strip centers, next to major retailers. They provide a broad assessment of premium brand name footwear, apparel, accessories and team sports equipment at competitive prices in a full service omnichannel environment.

Sports retail does not look fancy, unless you can do something different. Hibbet´s trick is to strategically locate stores far away from competitors, in communities that demand their products, close to large traffic retail stores, with premium assortment of products that competitors can't handle. It looks simple, but works! Cherry-picked store locations sell very well, even in a very tough american retail environment.

The main competitive advantages are best in class omnichannel business model, superior costumer services in stores and a compelling merchandise assortment. They create a differentiation among competitors, even considering a relatively competitive retail business. Sports goods are also performing well when compared with other retail specialties. Those advantages can be accounted when you check business performance. Right now, Hibbet has a negative comparable sales decline of -9% from previous year, but a very strong 54.4% increased from 3 years ago (pre-pandemic).

Year-over-year comparisons are tough, because of lapping stimulus, deteriorated retail conditions, margins pressures (freight, transportation, wages, launch delays), but $HIBB is still performing great from pre-pandemic levels and most important, still has a strong EPS result, while other retail players are struggling a lot more. Other good business signs are: $HIBB is opening more stores, e-commerce is growing and increasing participation (15% of total sales), inventories are full and fresh. Full 2023 guidance is positive, aiming for higher gross margins in the back half, positive comp sales and better operating margin.

Right now, $HIBB margins are a little bit compressed. Gross margin is 34.4% and operating margin 8.4%. Still, operating results granted a fair 4.72 EPS YTD, which looks good considering circumstances. For the remainder of the year, the company expects an overall improvement in all areas, that will probably boost bottom line and cash flows. Meanwhile, $HIBB keeps strongly repurchasing shares, that will reflect in future EPS. New stores capex is relatively low, and when working capital starts to normalize, even more cashflow could be returned to shareholders. The company has almost no debt other than operating lease obligations.

The great risk of $HIBB is ordinary retail execution. Positive cashflow, no debt and modest capex maintain corporate risk very manageable. Retail is going through rough times, but the forecast is promising. Freight and transportation are normalizing and store count leveraging should return. Comparable sales will start to face a better situation as long as the year goes. Most competitors are suffering far more and should take long to recover.

Hibbet is a small cap business, with a roughly $750 million market cap, with almost no debt (depending on how you consider operating lease obligations). Operational results are hard to evaluate right now, since quarter over quarter results are very volatile and FCO is compromised with inventory's increase. However, we can estimate an interval of 150-250 EBITDA, trending up, resulting in a 3x - 5x EV/EBITDA multiple interval. That is an attractive multiple, specially considering recovering business, growth potential, operating leverage and strong share repurchase.

I am not a chipmaker expert to understand business nuances, but Qualcomm ($QCOM) looks a very safe bet right now. $QCOM has a strong market participation with smartphone processor Snapdragon, but it is also relevant (and fast-growing) in other areas live RF front-end, IoT and autonomous vehicles. All business segments are performing very well, have long-term potential growth, and $QCOM has an established market position.

Other companies are also performing well in this business, but I specially like $QCOM. First of all, sales are expected to remain high for a long time (Snapdragon is the main option in premium android smartphones, 5G transition is only beginning and IoT will only get bigger and bigger). Unlike other tech stocks, $QCOM already is very profitable and doesn't have high multiples. The company is making more than $10 billion in cash every year and is returning most of it to shareholders.

This is a very unusual (and powerful) combination of great business, moats, profitability, fair multiples and return to shareholders. Even with short-term difficulties to slow business down, long-term seems to remain unchanged. It is hard to not like $QCOM, either from a growth, value or business point of view.

While many are focusing only in subscriptions' growth/decline, the most important take about $NFLX future are these two paragraphs:

The big question is whether $NFLX will balance revenues with content production/licensing expenses. This point is what is really hurting $NFLX profitability. They need not only self-fund themselves, but also increase a lot their FCF, since we are talking about an $80 billion company. Of course subscriptions growth, advertising, other increase revenue measures are important on the revenues side, but perhaps the major challenge is spending more wisely in content

The outlook for 2022 is $1 billion FCF. It is already a great improvement to a cash burner company, but is still a very low number considering $NFLX market cap. Meanwhile, $8.5 billions in debt can get pretty ugly if the company fails to be a positive FCF.

Crocs is an American shoemaker, known for its iconic foam clogs, that sells its portfolio of casual shoes through DTC and wholesale. The clogs showed up to the general public around the 2010s, drawing some skepticism about the unique and exotic design. However, the product survived public scrutiny and ten years later pushed for a second popularity run. This time the world was very different, post-pandemic world is trending to casual, social media awareness is favorable to new marketing strategies, e-commerce can fuel DTC sales and teenagers are running away from classic trends to new products. The result was clogs exploded in sales and popularity, and $CROX became very profitable.

Clogs are comfortable, relatively affordable (for a recognizable product) easy to clean and to use. $CROX found a great opportunity to promote its products among teenagers and Z generation, who may become long term consumers.

Some clogs are also becoming popular among professionals, like medical and nurse staffs, for example:

Perhaps the most important development is the “fashion related” and famous influencers collabs. This kind of marketing campaign increase awareness and value perception for the products directly to target consumers. Even “unusual” collabs, like KFC and General Mills do the job of drawing interest.

Jibbliz are accessories to be attached to clogs holes. Each Crocs pair have 26 holes that can be decorated with personalized “pin like” charms with pop culture references, animals, cartoons and licensed figures. The personalization trend is for real, and for sure adds value for the clogs and revenue for $CROX.

And it's not all about clogs. $CROX also sells other kind of casual shoes. This year Heydude`s acquisition increased the company relevance in casual shoes. Heydude´s was growing fast, has good margins, great digital penetration and good brand awareness too. There are also many synergies opportunities, like improving Heydude´s distribution channels, sourcing footprints and marketing expertise Acquisition multiples were less than 15x EV/EBITDA, and considering future revenue's growth projections, can be a real bargain.

From a business standpoint, the shoes are very profitable, manufactured in China and Vietnam using simple materials and sold with great margins for a good value for consumers.$CROX gross margins are around 50% - 60%, right now impacted by freight costs and disruption of supply chains, but with a good chance of recovery since those effects diminish.

Revenues are also growing in a very fast pace. Company sales growth was around 45% in 1Q22 and above 20% considering only crocs brand. This number is very strong, specially considering a very difficult comp environment, since last year's stimulus and current inflation. Other famous brands, like $GPS, $ANF, are going through a tough time of margins reductions and increased inventories. The fact that $CROX maintained good margins in these conditions is a very strong indicator of the brand and business model strength.

SG&A analysis is kind of difficult to establish right now, because of Heydude´s acquisition one time expenses and acquisition related costs. The adjusted SG&A is around 27% and can be benefits from future operational leverage.

Heydude´s acquisition was worth $2.5 billions, that originated a 3x debt/EBITDA financial leverage. $CROX free cashflow in 2021 was more than $500 million. Adding Heydude´s results and organic growth, the company expects to reduce leverage to 2x ratio in one year, when they could resume share buybacks.

The huge point of attention is the brand awareness and value. The clog product is unique and susceptible to trend volatility. The fact that clogs survived initial strangeness from the consumers and rose stronger recently is very encouraging, but it's always possible that trends change over time and the desirable shoes became not so popular in the future.

Counterfeits and similar products are always a threat, but brand promotion intends to minimize these effects.

Other ordinary apparel retailer's risks are present too, like inflation, reduction in consumers spending, increase in costs and freight. But $CROX recent financial performance in these conditions is very encouraging too.

$CROX stock price have taken a heavy hit from the market. However, the company's fundaments remain strong (strong revenue growth, stable adjusted margins, long term tailwinds unaltered), the financial results were not affected by the current harsh environment and the near future looks even better with improving scenario and Heydude´s integration roll out. For the long term, $CROX expects a steady revenue growth of 17-20% to achieve $6 billions plus in 2026.

tradingview.com

Considering the 2022 outlook of $3.5 billions total revenue and 26% to 27% of operational margin, we can think of close to $1 billion operational result. The current market cap is around $3.3 billion and financial debt (without lease obligations) is roughly $2.7 billions.

Without thinking in great detail, $CROX is negotiating close to 6 times EV/EBITDA projected for 2022, with strong revenue growth and a favorable long term guidance. Multiples are in the market lower end for sure. We don't need to make detailed DCF calculations to draw the conclusion that value upside is huge.

Pairing with a relatively low business risks, it is very difficult to imagine a scenario where the stocks keep underperforming. The financial numbers are already very good and probably will continue to increase. Even if the numbers deteriorate and projected growth is not achieved in the future, the actual results already support current valuation.