HIBB

Hibbett

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-$26.44 -34.52%
September Idea Competition: Hibbet ($HIBB)
Introduction

Hibbet ($HIBB) is a sports shoes and apparel retailer, which main characteristic is being located in underserved communities. As of July 30, 2022, $HIBB operated 1117 stores of three different brands: Hibbett, City Gear and Sports Additions. Most stores are located in strip centers, next to major retailers. They provide a broad assessment of premium brand name footwear, apparel, accessories and team sports equipment at competitive prices in a full service omnichannel environment.

Main competitive advantages

Sports retail does not look fancy, unless you can do something different. Hibbet´s trick is to strategically locate stores far away from competitors, in communities that demand their products, close to large traffic retail stores, with premium assortment of products that competitors can't handle. It looks simple, but works! Cherry-picked store locations sell very well, even in a very tough american retail environment.

The main competitive advantages are best in class omnichannel business model, superior costumer services in stores and a compelling merchandise assortment. They create a differentiation among competitors, even considering a relatively competitive retail business. Sports goods are also performing well when compared with other retail specialties. Those advantages can be accounted when you check business performance. Right now, Hibbet has a negative comparable sales decline of -9% from previous year, but a very strong 54.4% increased from 3 years ago (pre-pandemic).

Year-over-year comparisons are tough, because of lapping stimulus, deteriorated retail conditions, margins pressures (freight, transportation, wages, launch delays), but $HIBB is still performing great from pre-pandemic levels and most important, still has a strong EPS result, while other retail players are struggling a lot more. Other good business signs are: $HIBB is opening more stores, e-commerce is growing and increasing participation (15% of total sales), inventories are full and fresh. Full 2023 guidance is positive, aiming for higher gross margins in the back half, positive comp sales and better operating margin.

Financial numbers

Right now, $HIBB margins are a little bit compressed. Gross margin is 34.4% and operating margin 8.4%. Still, operating results granted a fair 4.72 EPS YTD, which looks good considering circumstances. For the remainder of the year, the company expects an overall improvement in all areas, that will probably boost bottom line and cash flows. Meanwhile, $HIBB keeps strongly repurchasing shares, that will reflect in future EPS. New stores capex is relatively low, and when working capital starts to normalize, even more cashflow could be returned to shareholders. The company has almost no debt other than operating lease obligations.

Company Risks

The great risk of $HIBB is ordinary retail execution. Positive cashflow, no debt and modest capex maintain corporate risk very manageable. Retail is going through rough times, but the forecast is promising. Freight and transportation are normalizing and store count leveraging should return. Comparable sales will start to face a better situation as long as the year goes. Most competitors are suffering far more and should take long to recover.

Valuation consideration

Hibbet is a small cap business, with a roughly $750 million market cap, with almost no debt (depending on how you consider operating lease obligations). Operational results are hard to evaluate right now, since quarter over quarter results are very volatile and FCO is compromised with inventory's increase. However, we can estimate an interval of 150-250 EBITDA, trending up, resulting in a 3x - 5x EV/EBITDA multiple interval. That is an attractive multiple, specially considering recovering business, growth potential, operating leverage and strong share repurchase.

Investment thesis summary

  • $HIBB established a differentiated business model with strategic placed stores, premium assortment and appealing products;

  • Comparable sales skyrocket during pandemic time and are holding strong levels after. Margins are pressured right now, but are expected to return and surpass pre-pandemic levels as the year rolls out;

  • Eventually, brick-and mortar retail will recover. The company is well positioned to regain long-term growth, since competitors are probably going much worse and Hibbet resumed new stores opening and kept e-commerce growth;

  • Multiples are low and there is a strong growth potential. Even in a harsh environment, $HIBB remained profitable. Meanwhile, aggressive share repurchase is being conducted in interesting prices;

  • Risk/return relation is pretty favorable, with $HIBB proving its business model in hard conditions, retaining growth capabilities and generating value for shareholders.
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This why I like the competition, I had never heard of this company before, thanks for sharing. I like the focus on underserved communities however, the company shows a weaker profitability than peer group. You mentioned online sales were growing. Is a more important part of online sales in the revenue mix likely to improve Hibbet's margins?
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John Neff’s Screen Results
John Neff, turns out, is a lot like me. Likes buying quality companies when they’re undervalued and out of favor. Makes sense to me. So he had a method/equation he used to find investable companies. If Total Return (earnings growth + dividend yield) divided by the price to earnings ratio was at least 2:1, he took interest. Using numbers provided by Simply Wall Street, here is a list of quality companies whose growth + yield are more than 2x the current P/E ratio. All are profitable and relatively stable, out of favor and relatively cheap. Obviously, do your own research. I just want to share some of the results to offer up new ideas to anyone looking to spread their wings.
Here are the results, I do own some of these FYI.
I share my portfolio, but to save anyone time, I currently own $MATX , $WIRE , $BCC , $MDC , and held $LU is the past, but it appreciated like 30% in a week immediately after I bought it (100% luck to happen that quickly), that’s a sell in my book. Gotta remember to not be greedy, pigs get slaughtered. If I can make 20%-30% in a month, I’ll take it and move on. Too many opportunities to make money to be in love with any stock.
I hope that provides some new companies for a few value investors. Enjoy!
Remember, if you like charts, you’ll hate most of these stocks😉I go against the crowds momentum, hence the success.
On a side note, $MATX & $WIRE are showing up on lots of my different quality screens. Those are the two you may want to evaluate first😉
Let me know what you like or hate, be sharing one a week for a while.
PS: I mentioned I use ZERO forward looking anything; however, to build Neff’s screen, I had to use 12 month FWD earnings estimates to estimate total return. I reduced analyst earnings estimates by 10% to increase my margin of safety further and ensure estimates were conservative. This will be the ONLY time forward looking anything will be used in a post of mine🤙
Alberto Wallis's avatar
$22.7m follower assets
Upcoming Earnings Calendar (Feb 28th - Mar 4th)
Hey guys! Here's the upcoming earnings calendar! Two of my holdings, $SE and $SOFI report next week, so I'll be paying significant attention to both. Other than that, I'm also interested in seeing what retailers like $TGT $BBY and $COST have to say about supply chain issues and inflation.

Good luck to everyone!

If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

MON:


TUE:


WED:


THU:


FRI:
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Alberto Wallis's avatar
$22.7m follower assets
Upcoming Earnings Calendar (Nov. 29 - Dec. 3)
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

This week was light on earnings reports, but next week is shaping up to be very interesting in the stock market. None of my holdings report, but I'm still interested in listening to the $CRM, $CRWD, $SNOW and $DOCU earnings calls.

I'm also hoping we get post-earnings commentary on $CRM from @gkotak, $DOCU from @invesquotes and $OKTA from @tolvkin so that I can learn more about these companies.

Remember, if you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

Monday:

Tuesday:

Wednesday:

Thursday:

Friday:
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