Some thoughts about “reality setting in”
It’s Sunday. Let’s chat about your big ideas on the future of Commonstock.
I was chatting with a fellow employee this week over lunch about what the future of Commonstock would look like. Of course, we have some wild ideas but I wanted to chat with all of you to get your vision of the future of Commonstock.
Some starting questions to get you thinking:
- What would be a valuable social interaction that you’d like to have at scale on Commonstock?
- How would Commonstock fit into your investing process at scale?
- What would valuable content look like at scale on Commonstock?
For me, I could imagine Commonstock like a live marketplace where users “hop” from asset to asset to follow the flow of information. Imagine a social media workspace or dashboard where you could see users capture their investment process in real time (asset discovery phase, asset research phase, the buys and sells that follow).
This is just my personal dream for Commonstock, not representative of how we will continue building.
I want to hear yours. Think big! Put them down in the comments! 🧵
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Been thinking about this since you posted Josh… so in my mind, the power of commonstock comes in the investment research and ideation process.
I believe that some of the best minds on Wall Street are actually off of wall street and on platforms like commonstock. When I have an investment idea, I want to hear people smarter than me and what they have to say about my thoughts. Even better, if I see a trend and want to make money, I want to hear ideas from people on the best way to make the right investment.
Beyond this, the data the commonstock has can be an absolute killer in the market. Data analysis in my mind is an art, not a science. Extrapolating the right data and turning it into valuable insights can be a weapon. The data has the power to distill the insights of 100s of people, into a simple actionable statistic. That’s what I am most excited about for the future of commonstock.
The power and minds of the people at large is incredible when harvested properly. I look forward to the days where commonstock is my go to spot for analyzing what people are buying, thinking, and watching. Investing is an art IMO and commonstock will be a powerful tool in the coming years.
Just got this jacket to represent my current opinions on the market
Do you play games?
@stonkmetal 's post inspired me to create this poll. From their asset allocation. they have 45% of their assets allocated in "Virtual items". What are those virtual items you ask? You're probably thinking they're NFTs. Well, they're CS:GO items!
For those who don't know, CS:GO is a competitive online shooter video game where you can own virtual skins of knives, guns, etc. The CS:GO market is huge with millions of items worth less than a dime to items worth upwards of $1k.
That whole market is fascinating to me and made me want to ask the Commonstock community if they play/played video games. I've noticed that there's a significant overlap between people that play video games and people that talk about investing on sites like Reddit, Twitter, Commonstock, etc. The stock market could be seen as a video game to some!
Answer in the poll below!
Shoutout to @stonkmetal for inspiring this poll! https://commonstock.com/post/e75263cd-5ccf-4244-8952-369ae6f5bde2
Do you or have you had a passion for Video Games?
19 VotesPoll ended on: 05/14/22
Prediction Update: The disagree-ers are definitely in the lead for this prediction. I was totally wrong 🥲
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Honestly good on you for being able to look in the mirror and say it! I’ll do it too lol “this market has proven me wrong and put me in my place a lot lately” 😂 just keep your head above water and we will find a way to the other side
When everyone's fearful, get greedy
So I'm hearing a ton of doomer perspectives on the market right now. Everyone and Jeff Bezos seem to be fearful of this next downturn. The discussions today really sound a lot like January of this year. Since I'm a shameless contrarian, I thought I'd take the opposite opinion.
Now, I'm not saying that the market isn't gonna go down, I just think we're not in for a massive crash like some people are heeding. There's still a ton of money out there and there's still a bunch of risky investments being made by VCs. I just think we're in a natural cooling period.
What do you think? Think we're in for a massive crash, a cooling period, or everyone's just downright out of their mind?
Prediction:$SPY will be over $407.5/share on 5/16/2022
Validated to: No
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The S&P500 looks fairly valued to me (https://commonstock.com/post/67c366ec-54a9-4406-a456-89283b333b81), so it's a coin-flip from these levels.
Capital costs are rising quickly and many market participants have never experienced that. When combined with declining real GDP, historic levels of inflation, and a hawkish Fed, it's a recipe for fear.
A First Step into NFTs
Uh oh. I may or may not have done a great thing. Over the holiday break, I accidentally became obsessed with NFTs.
So, for those who don't know, NFTs are just an expensive way of right-clicking and saving an image. Joking, but it's hard to define NFTs as a whole -- there are about a million different use cases to NFTs. I must say, it wasn't overnight I jumped on the bandwagon. Previous to 2020, I used to roll my eyes at anyone that replaced e with 'Ξ' in their Twitter name. Since then, some of the many incredible people on my team I really respect have adopted the Ξ trend and, hats off to them, because they got me really interested in the $ETH.X universe.
Fun tangent, check out these transactions for Bitcoin I bought in 2016:
This would be worth around $20k right now. Didn't hold obviously ¯\(ツ)/¯
It was in early 2021 I joined a few others working on a crypto project to lead design and develop a platform for tipping cryptocurrencies. Going from just 4 other team members when I joined, the project has seen quite some success, from raising $1.3MM and reaching a market cap of $4MM in November. This endeavor really showed me the practical technical application of how the blockchain works and got me fascinated with L2 solutions like $MATIC.X.
Back to NFTs though, I purchased 5 NFTs over the break. First, I started with trying to get into giveaways and mints, there's something about dangling virtually free NFTs in front of your face to get you really passionate about the space. Then, what really clicked for me, was the insane utility that some of these projects were creating. Believe it or not, some NFTs actually have value, not just speculation. This aspect of NFTs should excite any investor.
Imagine you could get into the pre-seed or seed round of a company in about 60 seconds by purchasing an NFT. Huge regulatory overhead has been sidestepped. Maybe that's not for the best on a macro level, it's extremely important to acknowledge that there is a ton more risk here -- not only from the project failing but from regulatory changes and scams too. There may also be a bubble here.
However, for the many, many drawbacks the NFT community has, the culture reminds me a ton of pre-$GME Wallstreetbets (probably around 2018). Incredibly entertaining and so much passion, with a ton of degeneracy slapped on top. Still, a part of me is embarrassed to say anything about NFTs because of how they're viewed. The skepticism absolutely makes sense but so much potential is there.
To finish off this post, just gonna share a few jpg's i own :^)
Here's a Gambling Ape I own, crude drawing, hopping on the bandwagon of "ape"'s, but you own part of an online casino and receive profits every month. Very very cool utility because, as we all know, the house always wins.
Here's a Sherbet NFT I own, also in the online casino space but there's no house. You bet against friends and foes. I find this to be a VERY cool application of Web3 and am excited to see where the project goes.
I can probably talk about NFTs forever however, I cannot emphasize enough that there's an incredible amount of risk here. View NFTs as part of your portfolio and set mental stop losses.
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Great stuff, @josh, and thank you for sharing a couple of your NFTs! I think this is a very intriguing space and I while I don't think these JPGS are the full flowering of this movement, it's probably a safe bet that some of them will retain and grow in value.
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Since posting, these warrants are up a solid 120%. Setting a stop loss of 20% as I'm very happy with this performance.
@patwallen you still in???