T◎m's Posts | Commonstock

T◎m

$19.8MFollowers

@tdozzi07/14/2022

Bill Ackmann Rate Thoughts

Interesting thread. Would love to hear what the best investing community has to say in terms of thoughts on this piece.

https://twitter.com/billackman/status/1547410056429330432?s=21&t=pU9lM8OFqMxrvffeTDE7pg

X (formerly Twitter)

Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) on X

In response to today’s CPI print which showed broad-based and accelerating inflation, short-term FF futures moved upward implying peak FF of 3.68% by 12/22 with the @federalreserve immediately thereafter cutting rates to reach 2.9% by 1/24. Implicitly the market expects a more

Nathan Worden

@nathanworden07/14/2022

My first reaction is that being well versed about historical precedents is extremely useful when it comes to investing (especially with having a macro opinion).

Bill’s market history knowledge is very impressive here.

The point about how the market currently thinks the Fed will act as it has in the last three recessions but this time it will need to be more like the 70s and 80s was very interesting.

+ 1 comment

T◎m

$19.8MFollowers

@tdozzi04/14/2022

ELON MUSK OFFERS TO BUY TWITTER. All cash @ $54.20

T◎m

$19.8MFollowers

@tdozzi02/23/2022

Betting on Oil and Natural gas futures. What is the play?

After following the Russia-Ukraine situation it feels like there is a larger effect happening on energy supplies.

I am not smart enough to figure out the trade here. Buy oil futures, buy other energy supply companies?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/02/22/russia-ukraine-oil-gas-impact/

Washington Post

Uncertainty over what Putin will do next shakes up oil and natural gas markets

Russia's aggressive stance in Ukraine will unsettle oil and natural gas markets.

T◎m

$19.8MFollowers

@tdozzi02/08/2022

Peloton Fire + 2 Big lessons

Unfortunately, my first post back for a while isn't a happy one.

I could not have been more wrong. https://commonstock.com/memo/03e3a191-1aaf-4c6a-bc4d-32246e595888

Peloton has been falling faster than a drunk on a mountain bike. Several headwinds have crippled the company and the day of reckoning has finally come.

John Foley is stepping down and cutting the workforce as rumored sale talks are heating up. All these actions are likely leading to a buyout within the next few weeks.

Two big lessons here:

Knowing when to buy is a skill. Too bad that doesn't matter unless you also know when to sell. I sold half my PTON position around $100, after buying at $55, but still, hold the other half of the position.
It's okay to be wrong. It's not okay If you don't learn anything from it.

Peloton won't go away, but it may be swallow by someone else.

Jensen Butler

@jensen02/08/2022

My stationary bike holding value has not been so stationary 📉

+ 4 comments

T◎m

$19.8MFollowers

@tdozzi11/29/2021

Dorsey stepping down as Twitter CEO

I love investing in companies that act like startups. For the last few months, Twitter has been doing some rapid experimentation and continuing innovation through its product.

When companies have founder CEOs, they typical take higher risks because founders, as we know, have a pretty high risk tolerance.

With Jack stepping down, this leaves me in a tough dilemma. I hold both $SQ and $TWTR. I will continue holding $SQ. For $TWTR, I will watch the company closely for the coming month. If they slow down their innovation, I will probably start to sell, but hopefully they don’t. I love Twitter.

Nathan Worden

@nathanworden11/29/2021

I kind of see this as a plus for Twitter. Dividing his time between square and Twitter hurt Twitter. I think a new CEO will be able to take Twitter to the next level.

+ 2 comments

T◎m

$19.8MFollowers

@tdozzi11/02/2021

I just got this text. (For the record I used to be big on bitcoin, mostly in $ETH.X and $SOL.X now.)

I am thinking of recommending 1/3 in each currency.

33% in $ETH.X

33% in $SOL.X

33% in $BTC.X

Anyone think there is a better play? Would love to hear thoughts.