Does Twitter make Sell-Side Analysts Better?
  • The answer, according to a new study, is yes.
  • Analysts are generally overly optimistic when presenting earnings forecasts (largely due to incentives).
  • As information technology has proliferated, the competition for information production has increased.
  • Negative and positive information are treated differently by human psychology – the former being valued more highly.
  • Analysts looking at Twitter succumb to this asymmetry, biasing their forecasts downwards i.e. negating their over optimism.
  • These are fascinating results (there a few others in the article).
  • $TWTR
Consumer Sentiment: Daily Contrarian, May 13
Good morning contrarians! It’s Friday, May 13. Great day for a meltdown. But remember what Yogi Berra said: It’s bad luck to be superstitious.

As of 0615, stock futures are pointing to a higher open anyway. Tech stocks are leading things out, with the Nasdaq up 1.6%. S&P 500 futures are up 1% with Dow Industrials up a little less.

Today we have the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading at 1000. And of course the saga of Elon to hog hedlines, with his latest tweet that the Twitter ($TWTR) deal is “temporarily on hold” causing that stock to drop more than 20% in the pre-market.

How bad has the damage been from all this selling? Some anecdotal evidence from my time in Las Vegas.

All of that and more in today’s briefing and podcast. Get it here:
Conor Mac's avatar
$318.9m follower assets
Twitter's $44B Deal on Hold
Elon Musk announced earlier today that his proposed $44B acquisition of Twitter $TWTR will be put on hold "pending details supporting calculation that spam/fake accounts do indeed represent less than 5% of users".

The stock is currently trading ~20% down in the pre-market, for ~$35 per share.

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Is Hindenburg right about $TWTR deal?
Hindenburg (best-known for Nikola report) flagged Twitter yesterday. They believe the deal is likely to be repriced lower on the back of the NASDAQ underperformance and alleged poor fundamentals of the business and economics of the deal. Even Elon responded to Hindenburg: "Interesting. Don’t forget to look on the bright side of life sometimes!"

Hindenburg has one of the best short selling track records in our database, past 20 calls:
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I unloaded my position at $51 and $51.50 over the last few weeks. Could miss out on a few bucks, but felt the cash would serve me better for now.
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David's avatar
$2.2m follower assets
Im the biggest $TSLA bull and a Musk fan but the mental gymnastics that some $TSLA investors are doing in terms of how the $TWTR acquisition is some sort of 5D chess move because of synergies that are super far fetches and only Elon has the vision to make them come true is just too much 😂😂😂
Conor's avatar
$2.5m follower assets
Invest like Elon Musk $PL
Elon Musk's below tweet has generated over 1M likes so far. I honestly love it. Investing in a company you believe in is a great idea. It gives you confidence in your investment when things are not going well and you should know the company better than a company you're not familiar with.

So what companies does Elon Musk follow on $TWTR?

Besides the companies Elon has founded, Planet is the only publicly traded company Elon Musk follows.

According to Google "Planet is a leading provider of geospatial data for use in agriculture, government, and commercial mapping, and is seeing customer growth in new markets such as insurance, commodities, and finance."

You might be saying, but Elon says invest in what YOU believe in. That's why I probably won't invest in $PL myself, but if it's good enough for a genius maybe it's good enough for me.

Would you invest in $PL? If you would, please let me know why!
Would you invest in $PL right now?
16%Yes! Already invested
33%No, this company is trash
12 VotesPoll ended on: 05/04/22
Edmund Simms's avatar
$7.6m follower assets
Elon Musk is taking Twitter’s “public square” private
"He [Musk] is likely to trim headcount [at Twitter $TWTR]: its 7,500 employees generated average revenues of $677,000 last year, whereas those at Facebook $FB generated $1.6m..."

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