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Morning Prep 08/25
U.S. Overview:

  • S&P Futures: On the rise at +12.5 or +0.28% as of 6:50 ET.
  • Market vibes are higher after a cool session in Europe but a downer close in Asia.
  • Everyone's waiting for Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, but not expecting any policy spoilers.
  • Lots happening, including $NVDA's crazy good results not boosting big tech enough, pressure on rates and the dollar, and retail earnings under the microscope.
  • Key U.S. economic info includes the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment and flow data pointing to a third week of outflows from U.S. equities. (This is what we talked about last week where all red days were with volume while green, inflows, where low volume)
  • Interesting chat in Bloomberg about the U.S. budget deficits blowing up like never before.
  • China's making moves like easing home mortgage rules, boosting stock investments, and cutting stamp duty on trading.
  • Some softer results in Germany and Japan, easing inflation in Tokyo.
  • Cool earnings beats from $INTU, $WDAY, $MRVL, $ULTA, $AFRM, with mixed feelings on $GPS and $JWN.
  • No major earnings on the calendar for today, but keep an eye on Aug Final Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 ET.

European Highlights:

  • Markets: $FTSE 100 at +0.50%, $DAX at +0.48%, $CAC40 at +0.72%.
  • Markets are up, with some key economic indicators like UK consumer confidence and German Q2 GDP.
  • Corporate news is chill, but Novartis ($NOVN.SW) got FDA approval for a cool biosimilar.
  • Some corporate guidance adjustments from CMC Markets ($CMCX.LN) and Steinhoff International Holdings ($SNH.GR).
  • Some M&A action with Rolex acquiring watch retailer Bucherer.
Company News Highlights:
  • Shell ($SHEL.LN) might sell its UK energy retail biz to Octopus Energy.
  • Watches of Switzerland Group ($WOSG.LN) responds to Rolex's move, resulting in downgrades.
  • CMC Markets ($CMCX.LN) updates FY trading, with an upgrade from Numis.
  • Exmar NV ($EXM.BB) announces the next phase in a public takeover bid.

Asian Overview:

  • Markets: Nikkei (-2.05%), Hang Seng (-1.40%), Shanghai Composite (-0.59%).
  • A bit of a downer in Asia with losses across the region.
  • Greater China markets leading the way down, despite Beijing trying to stop the local stock outflow.
  • Some news from the Bank of Japan and Indonesia's central bank regarding inflation and bonds.
Company Highlights:
  • Boustead Plantations ($5254.MK) possibly being acquired by Kuala Lumpur Kepong.
  • Sony ($6758.JP) buying audio tech company Audeze.
  • ENN Energy Holdings ($2688.HK) sees a revenue miss versus Estimates.

International News:

  • ECB members share views:
  • Nagel: Too soon to think about rate hike pause (source: Bloomberg)
  • Centeno: Economic downside risks materializing (source: Bloomberg)
  • Vujcic: More price data required to figure rate peak (source: Bloomberg)
  • France: Extends coal plant waiver to 2024 for power supply (source: Bloomberg)
  • Xi and Modi: Focus on de-escalation at Himalayan border (source: SCMP)
  • U.S.-China: Joint research paper numbers fall for the first time in 28 years (source: Nikkei Asia)

US Morning News:
  • $HIBB (Hibbett): Q2 EPS $0.85 vs Estimates $0.74 [8 estimates, $0.40-1.30]
  • $MRK (Merck):Starts Phase 3 clinical program for MK-0616 Provides update with Eisai on LEAP-010 trial for KEYTRUDA & LENVIMA in HNSCC
  • $GOCO (GoHealth): Acquisition proposal withdrawn - 13D/A
  • $APO (Apollo Global Management): EU deadline for Apollo Funds' Petsmart stake set for 29-Sep
  • $HSAI (Hesai Group): Wins motion to terminate patent infringement case by Ouster
  • $INTU (Intuit): Q4 EPS $1.65 ex-items vs Estimates $1.43 [25 est, $0.69-1.68]
  • $MRVL (Marvell Technology): Q2 EPS $0.33 ex-items vs Estimates $0.32 [26 est, $0.32-0.35]
  • $WDAY (Workday): Q2 EPS $1.43 ex-items vs Estimates $1.26 [33 est, $1.15-1.45]; Q3 Subscription revenue guidance - conf call
  • $ULTA (Ulta Beauty): Q2 EPS $6.02 vs Estimates $5.85 [24 est, $5.33-6.07]
  • $SF (Stifel Financial): July data shows Total client assets $426.67B vs $394.66B year-ago
  • $GPS (Gap): Q2 non-GAAP EPS $0.34 includes tax benefit
  • $AFRM (Affirm Holdings): Q4 net income ($206.0M) vs Estimates ($270.8M) [12 est, ($324)-(212.5M)]
  • $JWN (Nordstrom): Q2 EPS $0.84 ex-items vs Estimates $0.45 [18 est, $0.24-0.59]
  • $DIS (Walt Disney): Amazon in talks with Disney about ESPN streaming (source: The Information)
  • $AKAM (Akamai Technologies): Acquires enterprise contracts from StackPath
  • $KIM (Kimco Realty): Acquires Stonebridge Center for $172.5M
  • $SMMF (Summit Financial, WV): Merging with Burke & Herbert Financial; $371.5M value
  • $HTZ (Hertz Global): Lease agreement with Revel for EVs; potential partnership explored - NY Post
  • $WHC.AU (Whitehaven Coal): Speculation about acquiring Daunia & Blackwater mines - The Australian
  • $HE (Hawaiian Electric): Sued by Maui County over wildfire damages - CNBC
  • $HOLI (HollySys Automation): Recco reaffirms $25/sh or $1.6B offer for HollySys - Bloomberg

Post-close Trading Movement:

  • +39.9% $YS (YS Biopharma): Share purchase by officers
  • +7.1% $AFRM (Affirm Holdings): Earnings report
  • +6.8% $BHR (Braemar Hotels & Resorts): 43.0K shares purchased by President
  • Others including $CRDO, $WDAY, $SAVA
  • -25.8% $DOMO (Domo): Earnings report
  • -16.0% $MYO (Myomo, Inc.): Secondary offering; first MyoPro Medicare Part B reimbursement
  • Others including : $PAGS, $MRVL, $JWN, $DOCN

Most-read Stories:
  • Financial reports for $GUBRA.DC, $ITECH.SS, $600219.CH, $003410.KS, $358.HK

  • $NFLX (Netflix), $ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch)
  • $FDS (FactSet Research Systems), $DLR (Digital Realty Trust), $CLVT (Clarivate)

U.S. Earnings Today:

  • No major releases expected

Economic & Market Data:

  • Lipper Fund Flows (week ending 23-Aug):
  • Equity outflows: $11.2B; ETFs: $7.8B; Domestic ETFs: $7.7B
  • Money market outflows: $3.3B; IG corporate bond: $984M; HY bond: $1.17B

Financial Data & Market Highlights:

Bond Yields:
  • 2-year yield +4 bps to 5.04%
  • 10-year yield +1 bps to 4.25%
  • WTI Crude (Oct 23): +$0.94 or +1.19% to $79.99
Precious Metals:
  • Gold (Dec 23): ($2.30) or (0.12%) to $1944.80
Currency Exchange Rates:
  • €-$ (0.0011) or (0.10%) to 1.0800
  • £-$ (0.0003) or (0.02%) to 1.2598
  • $-¥ +0.18 or +0.13% to 146.02
  • €-¥ +0.04 or +0.03% to 157.71

Have a great day!! all eyes on Powell again...

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