Alberto Wallis's avatar
$8.7m follower assets
Upcoming Earnings Calendar (March 7th - 11th)
Hey guys! Here's the upcoming earnings calendar! I'm interested in:

  • $ZIM - Comments on their outlook for shipping prices.
  • $CRWD - Another stellar earnings report and I'll probably start a position in this company.
  • $MQ - How fast are their non-$SQ revenues growing?

Which earnings report are you looking forward to?

If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.
MON:



TUE:



WED:



THU:



FRI:

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$ULTA Update
Summary of Ulta Beauty Fiscal Q3
================================================

Comparable sales (sales for stores open at least 14 months, including stores temporarily closed due to COVID-19, and e-commerce sales) increased 25.8% compared to a decrease of 8.9% in the third quarter of fiscal 2020, driven by a 16.8% increase in transactions and a 7.7% increase in average ticket. Compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2019, comparable sales increased 14.3%.

Share Repurchases (aka burning some tokens)
During the third quarter of fiscal 2021, the Company repurchased 340,668 shares of its common stock at a cost of $126.4 million. During the first nine months of fiscal 2021, the Company repurchased 2,330,244 shares of its common stock at a cost of $762.2 million.

Thoughts
  • $ULTA continues to develop eCommerce solutions that are necessary to future-proof its existence.
  • The beauty industry is recovering at a pace faster than we anticipated.
  • Ulta at Target (TGT) initiative will attract a broad set of consumers who may not have gone to Ulta locations or the Ulta website even though they are potential Ulta customers.
  • Ulta is planning to make key investments in its supply chain. They are upgrading their ERP platform. "We expect to invest $160 million to $180 million in capital over the next 3 years, with most of the investment planned for fiscal 2022 and 2023." (12/2/2021 transcript). I'm expecting this to cost +$200m.

Disclosure: I am long ULTA (tiny position).
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Upcoming Earnings Calendar (Nov. 29 - Dec. 3)
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

This week was light on earnings reports, but next week is shaping up to be very interesting in the stock market. None of my holdings report, but I'm still interested in listening to the $CRM, $CRWD, $SNOW and $DOCU earnings calls.

I'm also hoping we get post-earnings commentary on $CRM from @gkotak, $DOCU from @invesquotes and $OKTA from @tolvkin so that I can learn more about these companies.

Remember, if you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

Monday:

Tuesday:

Wednesday:

Thursday:

Friday:
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Josh Rozin's avatar
$30.6m follower assets
Just opened up some $ULTA options anticipating their earnings in early December.

Looking for a run up into earnings + a continued run-up after breaking ATH's.
Eric Pelnik's avatar
$266.5m follower assets
Earnings this week
📞Which calls are you most excited about?

Monday, May 24th
$API Agora
$PLUG Plug Power

Tuesday, May 25th
$AZO AutoZone
$CBRL Cracker Barrel
$URBN Urban Outfitters
$INTU Intuit
$JWN Nordstrom
$ZS Zscaler

Wednesday, May 26th
$ANF Abercrombie & Fitch
$AEO American Eagle
$NVDA Nvidia
$DKS Dick's Sporting Goods
$ZUO Zuora
$SNOW Snowflake
$PSTG Pure Storage
$PDD Pinduoduo
$WSM Williams-Sonoma
$WDAY Workday
$OKTA Okta

Thursday, May 27th
$PLAN Anaplan
$ADSK Autodesk
$ULTA Ulta Beauty
$BBY Best Buy Co
$BOX Box
$DG Dollar General
$COST Costco Wholesale
$DOMO Domo
$DLTR Dollar Tree
$GPS Gap
$HPQ HP
$YEXT Yext
$CRM Salesforce
$VMW VMWare

Friday, May 28th
$BIG Big Lots

Sources: Business Insider, Google Finance, Yahoo Finance
$CRWD Looking for an overdue bullish move

$COST Hoping for a pullback to re-enter at a better cost basis

Bystander interest in several others 😊
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Eric Pelnik's avatar
$266.5m follower assets
Earnings this week
Which calls are you most interested in?

Monday, March 8th
$TACO Del Taco Restaurants
$SFIX Stitch Fix
$REV Revlon

Tuesday, March 9th
$HRB H&R Block
$MDB MongoDB
$DKS Dick's Sporting Goods

Wednesday, March 10th
$BBW Build-A-Bear Workshop
$ORCL Oracle
$AMC AMC Entertainment
$TUP Tupperware Brands
$VRA Vera Bradley
$CLDR Cloudera
$LC Lending Club
$SUMO Sumo Logic

Thursday, March 11th
$ULTA Ulta Beauty
$DOMO Domo
$DOCU DocuSign
$FNKO Funko
$ZUO Zuora
$MTN Vail Resorts

Friday, March 12th
None of interest

Sources: Business Insider, Google Finance, Yahoo Finance
Brad Thibeau's avatar
$101.4m follower assets
Long Term Individual Holdings
I've mentioned before I take a pyramid strategy to my investing. The all-encompassing picture across the whole family looks like this:

70% low cost ETF base split into 5 categories: 20% small-cap value, 20% small-cap growth, 20% large-cap value, 20% large-cap growth, 10% international(5% developed, 5% emerging)

The other 30% splits out into long term winners(28%) and 2% that my wife lets me do whatever I want with, so that's my short term moon shot gambling allocation. Personally, I feel the 2% is more important than the other 98%..because the 2% ensures that I don't touch the 98%..for the most part.

The tricky part about investing is when to know you need to change course. How to identify that you're in a moment that will define the next 10, 20, 30 years of humanity, while also understanding who's on the other side of your transaction. Morgan Housel has talked about how everyone has different timelines. Some people have 30 years, some people have 3 years, some people have 3 months, some people have 3 hours, and what an asset is worth to all of those people are very different. To quote Morgan exactly:
How much should you pay for Google stock today? The answer depends on who "you" are. Do you have a 30-year time horizon? Then the smart price to pay involves a sober analysis of Google's discounted cash flows. Are you looking to cash out within 10 years? Then the price to pay can be figured out by an analysis of the tech industry's potential over the nxt decade and whether Google management can execute. Are you looking to sell within a year? Then pay attention to Google's current product sales cycle and whether we'll have a bear market. Day trading? Then the smart price to pay is "who cares?" because you're just trying to squeeze a few bucks between now and lunchtime.
-----

Why do I mention this? Well, becomes sometimes your 10 year or 30 year outlook needs to be adjusted. There's nothing wrong with that, to be a "long term" investor does not mean to bury your head in the sand. For example, a goal to own Kodak for 30 years in 1990 would have found you completely empty-handed by year 23 as the world around you shifted.

So now, in the current environment, as we turn the page into 2021, I'm taking a look at changing things up a little bit in the long term holdings. I have some beliefs in certain areas, sectors, etc. Overall, as I sit down and put pencil to paper, here are some of the names I'm currently considering:
$GS **
$SQ *
$DIS **
$V *

*Already hold
** Already decided to continue to hold

You'll notice a couple of themes in here. Mainly lead by:
-Consumer, specifically "affordable luxury"
-Growing category leaders
-Quality value (with growth)

My plan is to get this down to between 15-20 names, if not less, buy those, and hold.

Expect more memos as decisions are made!
@amanda I do count retirement funds in that 70% passive category just to make sure I don't take too much or too little risk. I also count the couple private investments and RSUs that vest within 12 months in the individual holdings.

In regards to the breakout, that's a really good question. In my time at $MS I picked up on a 70% passive, 30% active portfolio study that showed outperformance somewhere along the way. I'll have to look for that study again and share it. Instead of using active mutual funds or ETFs for the 30%, I've just adopted the strategy to do it myself. So I was originally doing 70/30 but finding that I would get tempted to either chase things or miss out on opportunities because they didn't align with the goals of that 30%.

A couple of bad trades made me realize I needed a third bucket. 2% is kind of arbitrary, but I wanted that bucket to be big enough to be able to make moves and get returns, but small enough where if the whole thing went to zero it wouldn't rock the entire boat or carry over a significant negative impact onto the following year.

Ironically, the attention I pay to the buckets is probably completely inverse, but that's a good thing :).
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Eric Pelnik's avatar
$266.5m follower assets
Earnings this week
Monday, Nov 30th
$ZM Zoom Video

Tuesday, Dec 1st
$CRM Salesforce
$BOX Box
$NTAP NetApp
$HPE Hewlett Packard

Wednesday, Dec 2nd
$CRWD Crowdstrike
$SPLK Splunk
$ZS Zscaler
$OKTA Okta
$SNOW Snowflake
$ESTC Elastic
$FIVE Five Below

Thursday, Dec 3rd
$KR Kroger
$DLTH Duluth
$DOCU DocuSign
$CLDR Cloudera
$ULTA Ulta
$ZUO Zuora
$DOMO Domo
$PD Pagerduty
$DG Dollar General
$MDLA Medallia

Friday, Dec 4th
None of interest

Sources: Business Insider, Google Finance, and Yahoo Finance
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