ULTA

Ulta Beauty

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$23.95 +6.33%
Christian's avatar
$17.5m follower assets
Might be time to go Long $WOMEN
This isn’t a real ticker lol but I’ve been doing a lot of thinking and women control a lot of the spending in households. I think it’s time to own more women oriented stocks. I already got Starbucks might be time to own $ULTA and $LULU and go for the 3 peat lol. More of a comically post but all 3 are run exceptionally well especially during Covid and all 3 have a plan for the future and how they plan to continue this growth. I know there’s a lot of people who love Starbucks on here like me but if anyone wants to comment on the other two I’m all ears
Christian's avatar
$17.5m follower assets
Anybody have thoughts on this name??? It’s caught my attention. Seems to have great management and amazing margins. Interested here. Any other names you wanna throw my names similar to different for me to look into I’m all hears.
Jeff Sanders's avatar
$16.5m follower assets
Portfolio update at month-end of June. -10.96%. YTD -48.97%
Zero moves this past month. Very boring month for me as my pessimism has steadily increased with state of the economy and market. As we approach another ER season, will be watching closely for any opportunities as they present themselves. Patience is the key and challenge in this current state of affairs. However, looking to start new positions in the following at some point: $PAYC, $SNOW, $ULTA, and $NOW. $ENPH has also stated to intrigue me as well in the clean/green energy sector. Hope everyone has a great day!

Not preparing for all scenarios
I have been pretty open about my opinion on those who are only preparing for a recession and more extreme downside in the markets. The news sure is throwing the fear and uncertainty in our faces right now.

I do think it is a big mistake here to only have one directional bias. I think investing for all sides is an acceptable approach here (maybe scaling into positions while saving some cash on the sidelines as we go).

Here are my thoughts:

1st: There is a tug of war going on between higher interest rates and inflation on one side, and reopening's of entire economies around the world on the other side. International travel is happening again, this is good for U.S. businesses who have international exposure and for U.S. businesses who have international travelers come visit.

2nd: The consumer is generally in better shape with padded savings accounts (yes, still) and still more room to take on consumer debt to get to pre pandemic levels. Spending is still happening, but, it's shifting from goods to services or things that help people feel good for events (see $TGT vs. $ULTA earnings for example).

3rd: The stock market is not cheap here, but it's also not expensive (below the 5 year PE avg according to Factset). At the lows, the PE ratio got down below the 10 year avg. Even if earnings estimates are cut back, the market still could be considered not that expensive at current levels or at YTD lows. We have to see quarter by quarter how businesses are faring. The market could flutter until we know more. Some sector or industry earnings (energy, travel, financials), may make up for slowing growth in others (retailers, some tech).

So... There are alot of puts and takes here in my opinion, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the market selloff and growth estimates come in more, but, I also wouldn't be surprised to see earnings steady and for us to end up around current levels or even higher if things end up better than expected.

Either way, assuming only one direction from here can get you in trouble imo
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Very well said Nikki. If I could count the number of times people had called for recession in my lifetime, I'd need a wheelbarrow. If I could count the number of recessions we have actually had, I'd just need my hands.
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Paul Cerro's avatar
$36.4m follower assets
Big-box retailers and legacy department stores rethink the beauty customer experience
Big-box retailers are aggressively upgrading their beauty offerings to attract returning in-store shoppers and younger, digital-first consumers. The “shop-in-shop” partnerships that are bringing Ulta $ULTA into Target and Sephora into Kohl’s locations can also have a positive impact on ecommerce sales, as consumers may go online to replenish items they bought in-store.
  • Target’s $TGT website and app have dedicated sections for Ulta brands, as well as features like virtual makeup try-ons and live chat with beauty consultants. The partnership also comes with the promise of “double points” available through both Ulta’s Ultamate Rewards and the Target Circle loyalty program.
  • Walmart’s $WMT US partnership with UK prestige beauty retailer Space NK launched with online-only sales in March but will be followed by store collaborations in 250 US Walmart locations over the summer.

Department stores, once a principal sales channel for high-end beauty products, have had their market share eroded by new players. It’s a trend that began well before the pandemic, and it’s shifted into higher gear since.

These retailers are repositioning themselves accordingly. $KSS Kohl’s has made the most radical change by replacing store beauty departments with Sephora shop-in-shops, and it’s on track to have at least 850 in place by 2023, covering roughly three-quarters of its store count.

Others are exploring new paths for growth on the ecommerce front. In 2021, both $M Macy’s and Saks (the newly spun-off ecommerce unit of Saks Fifth Avenue) announced plans to launch online marketplaces to generate revenues while expanding the depth of their product offerings.

Retail media networks are another route for department store operators to increase revenues via beauty brands. Though this is an increasingly crowded and competitive field, department stores can boast an audience of potential customers that is more appealing to beauty brands.
  • Macy’s Media Network, launched in August 2020, is already generating more than $35 million annually with what CEO Jeff Gennette billed as “a new fashion and beauty publishing model” in a recent earnings call.
  • Nordstrom $JWN began testing retail media in 2019 with off-site campaigns for brand advertisers. After launching on-site sponsored ads in Q4 2021 and reporting $40 million in ad revenues from hundreds of brand partners that year, Nordstrom now plans to further expand its retail media network.
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Pending Home Sales, Retailer Earnings: Daily Contrarian, May 26
Good morning contrarians! Pending home sales are out at 1000. Initial jobless claims at 0830 seeing how it’s Thursday. Also a slew of earnings: $M, $DLTR, $DG, $ULTA in the pre-market. $COST after the close.

Pending home sales would probably need to be really disappointing to move markets. The news that housing growth is slowing is no secret, so you figure a lot of that would have to be mostly priced in at this point.

Costco earnings are worth watching. This is an important bellwether for the U.S. consumer, who apparently can’t get enough of this store. It’s especially important after the disappointing earnings we got from $WMT and $TGT last week (though this week has been better for retailers with $WSM the latest to surprise to the upside yesterday). Costco is like crack cocaine for American consumers so if there are any indications at all that they are slowing their Costco shopping binges it would bode very poorly for the global economy indeed.

The three major U.S. indexes (S&P, Dow, Nasdaq) are quietly positive for the week. All have long losing streaks (eight weeks in a row for the Dow, seven for the S&P and Nasdaq). Is the worst behind us already?

More here:
Alberto Wallis's avatar
$22.7m follower assets
Upcoming Earnings Calendar (March 7th - 11th)
Hey guys! Here's the upcoming earnings calendar! I'm interested in:

  • $ZIM - Comments on their outlook for shipping prices.
  • $CRWD - Another stellar earnings report and I'll probably start a position in this company.
  • $MQ - How fast are their non-$SQ revenues growing?

Which earnings report are you looking forward to?

If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.
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