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@kygo
Dante Keilani
$1.5M follower assets
I enjoy the outdoors. You can do anything but you can't do everything.
92 following60 followers
Palantir: What caused the inflection?
What happened on May 5th that all of a sudden rocketed $PLTR to the moon?
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They released earnings on May 8th, besting top and bottom line expectations, announcing that they're receiving interest unlike anything they've ever seen in their AI products, and most importantly (imo), announced that they would be gaap net income positive for all quarters in 2023
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Yellow goodbye
Yellow trucking has been around for 94 years. They have 30,000 employees. They took a $700 million federal pandemic loan to stay in business. And yet, today is the end of the road.

Yellow filed for bankruptcy because of an exodus of customers amid union strife and after years of financial troubles.

This is the largest trucking bankruptcy in the history of the US. $YELL is the third largest less-than-truckload carrier by revenue, behind Fedex $FDX and $ODFL.

A "less-than-truckload" company is one that moves pallet-sized shipments— smaller than a shipping container, but bigger than a parcel.

It's a sad day for workers and the American freight industry.
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I know @tolvkin @joryko have held Old Dominion Freight Line— is this a win for them? Maybe they're able to hire a lot of new drivers for cheaper?
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Disney might sell ABC and cable TV channels like ESPN
“They may not be core to Disney,” — Iger

Disney is open to finding a strategic partner, which could take over ESPN in the form of a joint venture or offloading Disney's ownership stake entirely.

Iger is pessimistic on the future of traditional TV and since he has gotten back to Disney, his outlook has only gotten worse. The future is streaming.

Disney's focus will be streaming profitability.

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Unlocked Follower Assets
Want to shoutout @oilman69 — had a conversation with him in September of last year and after that conversation I bought Antero Resources $AR and Viper Energy Partners $VNOM.

Has been a great call so far.

Follower Assets unlocked, beating the S&P 500 by almost 30% even though I'm down 47% on $PLTR and 86% on $FUBO.
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Will Natural Gas Prices Keep Going Higher?
This memo is an attempt to answer a question I just asked on Sam Stribling's Bull Thesis on Tellurian. $TELL

@strib pointed out that natural gas prices are rising and could be the highest in 13 years this winter.

I think that is reasonable- but my question is: Will natural gas prices be able to keep going higher beyond that?

Argument in favor
Yes, natural gas is now the country's primary electricity fuel, displacing coal throughout most of the country. And yes, we now use natural gas components to replace oil throughout our petrochemical systems— we use the stuff to make everything from lipstick to diapers to safety glass to insulation to pesticides... etc.

Higher demand means higher prices, right?

For a bit, which is what we're seeing right now. But sustained rising natural gas prices? My bet is no.

Arguments against
In an environment where $5 natural gas is the norm, it makes economic sense to drill for natural gas just for the gas. (Usually drilling is done specifically for the oil and not natural gas. The natural gas is either wasted or reluctantly collected, but most of the time it isn't economical to be the main reason for drilling.)

Shale tech has gotten a lot better in the last 8-10 years, and there will likely be explosive growth in on-shore production of natural gas.

Unlike off-shore wells that take years to bring on-line, and can get shut down in an instant by hurricanes like Ida, _on-_shore shale wells reach full output in a mere six weeks.

Prices won't rise because supply will be able to expand quickly to meet demand.

Every bit of oil & gas production that moves on-shore is more sustainable, lower cost, cleaner, and lower risk than anything that is international or offshore.

How this affects Tellurian?— not sure, I'm just starting to look into them. They operate a low-cost, global natural gas business that delivers natural gas to customers worldwide. They have a portfolio of natural gas production of nearly 100 drill-able locations with an estimated one trillion cubic feet of net resource.

Maybe they would benefit from the on-shoring of natural gas production. Looking into it more. Any thoughts from @oilman69 @strib or others would be much appreciated.
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www.ipaa.org
Independent Petroleum Association of America | Hydraulic Fracturing

@kygo well put together and great insights! While you dig in to TELL take a look at their leadership, Charif Souki specifically as he has experience from his time running $LNG. Also, look at its pre-pandemic valuation compared to today and that was justified at lower average nat gas prices than today.
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