This memo is an attempt to answer a question I just asked on Sam Stribling's Bull Thesis on Tellurian. $TELL

@strib pointed out that natural gas prices are rising and could be the highest in 13 years this winter.

I think that is reasonable- but my question is: Will natural gas prices be able to keep going higher beyond that?

Yes, natural gas is now the country's primary electricity fuel, displacing coal throughout most of the country. And yes, we now use natural gas components to replace oil throughout our petrochemical systems— we use the stuff to make everything from lipstick to diapers to safety glass to insulation to pesticides... etc.

Higher demand means higher prices, right?

For a bit, which is what we're seeing right now. But sustained rising natural gas prices? My bet is no.

In an environment where $5 natural gas is the norm, it makes economic sense to drill for natural gas just for the gas. (Usually drilling is done specifically for the oil and not natural gas. The natural gas is either wasted or reluctantly collected, but most of the time it isn't economical to be the main reason for drilling.)

Shale tech has gotten a lot better in the last 8-10 years, and there will likely be explosive growth in on-shore production of natural gas.

Unlike off-shore wells that take years to bring on-line, and can get shut down in an instant by hurricanes like Ida, _on-_shore shale wells reach full output in a mere six weeks.

Every bit of oil & gas production that moves on-shore is more sustainable, lower cost, cleaner, and lower risk than anything that is international or offshore.

How this affects Tellurian?— not sure, I'm just starting to look into them. They operate a low-cost, global natural gas business that delivers natural gas to customers worldwide. They have a portfolio of natural gas production of nearly 100 drill-able locations with an estimated one trillion cubic feet of net resource.

Maybe they would benefit from the on-shoring of natural gas production. Looking into it more. Any thoughts from @oilman69 @strib or others would be much appreciated.