S&P 500 again falls below resistance as Powell concludes speech today.

As I discussed earlier this week:

My take in listening to him today is that he is not changing his tune.

Find more of my portfolio ideas and research here:

Russell 2000: The broader market index continues to be a laggard and is once again trading below the long-term support line going back to 2009. A move down near 163 may create a buying opportunity in IWM. Next level of support below that is ~155.

As the mega-cap stocks continue to lead the major US stock indexes higher, my preference is to not chase this equity rally but rather to exercise patience while remaining defensibly positioned. Without knowing where or when the top of this rally will occur, I expect significant equity downside over the coming quarters.

Trying to nail down a precise recession or market downturn timeline is very difficult, so rather than trying to forecast precise timing, my primary focus is risk management with a sensible asset allocation for the current market environment.

When a market bottom is finally upon us, the opportunities for growth will be immense and my portfolio is built to take full advantage of such opportunities when the time arises. In the meantime, preservation of capital is key.

My new Substack post is out.

My Big Portfolio Refresh will be published on Substack Monday morning with my updated portfolio holdings and market outlook.

If you are a subscriber, the Post will arrive in your inbox around 10:15 am ET.

Cheers!

https://commonstock.com/post/0882993d-a76b-40d0-9081-6657000416e1 by @kostofff

Added NXP Semiconductors N.V. to my total return portfolio today. Based in Netherlands NXP Semiconductors is a leading provider of high-performance, mixed-signal chips used in end markets such as automotive and mobile payments. Excellent revenue growth. Forward PE 12.25. Yield 2.39%.

Stock continues to consolidate near its longer-term mean. Opened starter position. Likely add on pullback to 159.63.

For 8 days now the SPY has flirted with significant resistance. With the FOMC slated for Mar 3, I expect a significant break soon -- anyone's guess which way it breaks.

Be prepared regardless.