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Yegor's avatar
$182.9m follower assets
The new Pokémon games broke new sales records at Nintendo. Pokémon Scarlet and Violet sold 10 million units worldwide in the first three days of their launch at a time when the gaming industry is struggling. $NTDOY
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Christian's avatar
$17.7m follower assets
Black Friday shopping and the LULU business must be doing great. The mall I’m at the LULU store upgraded to a bigger store in the mall and even more crowded. Of course getting my Starbucks too and contributing to my stock. Line out the door like usual but love me the stock and the drink lol.
Brett Schafer's avatar
$26.9m follower assets
Interview: Leatt Corporation
Today we released an interview with Twitter personality DeepSailCapital covering microcap company $LEAT. The company sells sports gear and safety equipment for the extreme sports market

We hit what they do, valuation, and why he thinks the stock is cheap at today's prices.

Has anyone heard of this company? It has an interesting business model and looks pretty cheap if you believe it can steadily grow revenue from here


I'll have to take a listen. I've enjoyed learning about $LEAT here on Commonstock. Check out @mavix's thorough work on them
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Christian's avatar
$17.7m follower assets
So Berkshire Hathaway has class B shares. This might be weird to say but I didn’t know this at all. I’ve always wanted to own class A but it’s so expensive. Getting into class B will be my goal. Thanks so much to @ifb_podcast for helping point it out. Warren is my favorite investor in the world and I’d love to own his stock. Also thinking of owning some SCHD, I want more dividend income coming in without having to own every single company that’s in SCHD. Like LMT and Home Depot long term and this is some of the top positions in SCHD. Also Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Enjoy it with your family and friends. Love to you all!
Christian, in Buffett's 1996 letter you can read in his words about the creation of the B shares.

Additionally, we made two good-sized offerings through Salomon, both
with interesting aspects. The first was our sale in May of 517,500
shares of Class B Common, which generated net proceeds of $565 million.
As I have told you before, we made this sale in response to the
threatened creation of unit trusts that would have marketed themselves as
Berkshire look-alikes. In the process, they would have used our past,
and definitely nonrepeatable, record to entice naive small investors and
would have charged these innocents high fees and commissions.

Happy Thanksgiving!
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Benjamin Buchanan's avatar
$24.3m follower assets
How big will the biggest company be in ten years?
I'm curious to hear any thoughts or feedback on the question above, both in terms of market cap and revenue. I put together the following chart which shows the revenue every 5 years of the company who at that time had the most revenue. The red circle is consensus estimates for Amazon in 2024, and the red oblique line is the line of best fit spit out by excel - implying a noticeable acceleration.

This next table shows which company was the largest by revenue (remember, it's a snapshot not an which one had the most revenue over the whole five year period). The growth rate since 1955 calculates from each year (e.g. 1990) what the total compounded growth rate was from 1955 to that year.

The only companies that look like they have a prayer of catching up (by revenue) are China's oil giants and Aramco - but these companies are all subject to commodity prices and are effectively controlled by the respective governments so I don't really think they should count. Here's the list of top companies by revenue today:

So, does any company have a chance at beating Amazon to $700B in revenue? Looking out 10 years what companies do people think have a chance at being number 1 by revenue?
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Retail and oil appear to be the dominant categories. If data is the new oil, can't imagine a better combo than $AMZN. It is on track to overtake $WMT and become the largest retailer (thanks to Prime, advertising, and a scaled 3P platform), and AWS continues to dominate as the #1 cloud provider
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Todor Kostov's avatar
$6.6m follower assets
Giving the talk at a M&A event last night in London
Had a great time catching up and meeting new people at a M&A event in London last night!

Source: ReachX
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My Portfolio: 11/24/2022
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Hi Rex, thanks for sharing and welcome to Commonstock! You've got an impressive $TSLA position! Curious to know more of your thinking behind your portfolio construction and holdings and I look forward to seeing more of you around here. Happy Thanksgiving!
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Eugene Ng's avatar
$19m follower assets
Being genuine.
Share your journey openly. You will attract who you want to attract.

Be vulnerable, share your learnings.

Ask for genuine help and people will come around to help you.

Just be genuine.
Todor Kostov's avatar
$6.6m follower assets
Warren Buffett donated Berkshire Hathaway Inc. $BRK.B stock valued at more than $758 million to charities
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“If you're in the luckiest 1% of humanity, you owe it to the rest of humanity to think about the other 99%.” (Warren Buffett)
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"The 92-year-old investor donated 1.5 million Class B shares of his conglomerate to the Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation, named for his first wife. He also gave 300,000 Class B shares apiece to the three foundations run by his children: the Sherwood Foundation, the Howard G. Buffett Foundation and the NoVo Foundation." (CNBC)

Source: CTV News

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The world will be a little less brighter place when he leaves. Such a fantastic example for us all.
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Theatrical releases, Streaming Economics, Moving the Needle
$AMZN plans to spend $1 billion annually on the creation of movies that will be released in movie theaters. That's 12-15 movies a year.

Jeff Bezos, the former CEO of Amazon, wanted to use Prime Video as a way to boost Prime subscriptions and even boost the platform's e-commerce sales. While I think that the market for Prime subscriptions has saturated, Prime Video can surely help drive e-commerce sales by introducing products and services within their shows and movies that can inspire people to buy certain things (like how Netflix's The Queen's Gambit helped drive a surge in chess sets).

The great thing about these streaming companies releasing movies in theaters is that the huge profits that come from theatrical releases help these firms remain profitable despite the cash burn that comes with being a streaming provider. $PARA is one example where the profits from theatrical releases have helped the company maintain profitability despite the cash burn that came with Paramount+.

Ads are the key to profitability for streaming platforms. Without ads, it will be very difficult for streaming companies to break even on all the content spending as well as spending that comes with operating a streaming service. Look at Youtube, it's a video streaming service that is entirely reliant on ads. They've been able to become insanely profitable thanks to ads. Their revenues correlate with content consumption by users. Streaming companies that only provide a monthly fee and unlimited access to their platform are only making money from the monthly fee and don't receive more money whether the user binge-watches shows or not.

They're missing out on a massive profit opportunity.

While the move in implementing ads onto streaming services will take time, Prime Video is resorting to theatrical releases to generate profits.

Maybe the move to theatrical releases will help Amazon move the needle.

$ROKU is in all sorts of trouble this year but it’s ability to add new users (though by selling hardware at a loss) and increasing ARPU in a very tough macro environment is worth paying attention to.

Is $ROKU dead or will it make a comeback when the macro environment normalizes?
I own it but haven't added recently. Their entry into the smart home stuff is a little strange and possibly desperate.
I don't personally see myself buying any of this stuff and would probably go to another brand (like Google Home) first.
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Jennifer's avatar
$23.1m follower assets
Happy Thanksgiving to all my American friends!
And fellow shareholders of Patriot Battery Metals as it made a new 52wH today
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Now that's something to be thankful for! :) Happy Thanksgiving, @jennymanydots!
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Good Morning Everyone! Remember (due to inflation) this Black Friday we’re buying items 30% off that cost 300% more than last year.
Todor Kostov's avatar
$6.6m follower assets
Great anaysis on Ashtead Group $AHT.L from our friends @stockopine
Check out the excellent piece on Ashtead Group $AHT.L from our friends @stockopine

A company which everyone should own for the long-term 👇👇👇

StockOpine's avatar
$42.5m follower assets
Ashtead Group $AHT.L – Renting is Flexible and Affordable
Every month we share 2-3 write-ups on companies we decided to examine as potential additions to our portfolio.
The below is an extract of our write-up on Ashtead Group (Ticker: $AHT.L ), a leader in the equipment rental industry. Below is an extract of the first 4 parts of the report.
1. KEY FACTS
Description: Ashtead Group (“Ashtead”, “Company”) rents construction and industrial equipment across a wide variety of applications. Ashtead is North America’s second largest equipment rental company and operates in US, Canada and UK under the brand name Sunbelt Rentals.
Key Financials: Over the period 2012 to Q1’2023, the Company depicted a Revenue Compound Annual Growth Rate (“CAGR”) of 15.9% reaching a Trailing Twelve Month (“TTM”) revenue of c. $8.4B. Ashtead has a balance sheet with Cash and Short-term investments of $28 million compared to a debt and lease liabilities amounting to $7,744 million.
Price & Market Cap (as of 22nd November 2022): Its market cap is £22 billion with a 52-week high of £65.7 and a 52-week low of £32.7, whereas it currently trades at £49.9. Ashtead pays dividends since 1993 and its forward dividend yield stands at 1.3%.
Valuation: Ashtead trades at a TTM EV/EBITDA of 8.9 (10 Year average of 7.8) and at a TTM P/E of 19.8 (10 Year average of 17.9).
2. WHO IS ASHTEAD?
Ashtead’s durability speaks for itself; the Company has been around for 75 years, founded in 1947 in UK and listed in the London Stock Exchange in 1986. Since July 1988 (price data available on Yahoo Finance), Ashtead generated a compound average annual shareholders' return of c.18% including dividends. Over the years, Ashtead managed to grow and become the second biggest player in North America’s equipment rental industry behind United Rentals. The industry has been undergoing consolidation for years and Ashtead engaged in a high number of acquisitions to gain market share.
From 2011 until April 2021, Ashtead went for 103 acquisitions in North America and paid an average EBITDA multiple of 5.2x for 96 acquisitions (under $100M deals) and 6.1x for 7 acquisitions (above $100M deals).
One of the most significant acquisitions in the Company’s history has been NationsRent Companies, Inc for $1B in 2006. At the time, NationsRent was the 6th largest provider of rental equipment in the US and by paying 1.4x sales and 5x EBITDA for NationsRent, Ashtead became the 3rd largest player.
3. BUSINESS OVERVIEW
“At its most basic, our model is simple – we purchase an asset, we rent it to customers through our platform and generate a revenue stream each year we own it (on average, seven years) and then we sell it in the second-hand market and receive a proportion of the original purchase price in disposal proceeds. Assuming we purchase an asset for $100, generate revenue of $55 each year (equivalent to 55%-dollar utilisation) and receive 35% of the original purchase price as disposal proceeds, we generate a return of $420 on an initial outlay of $100 over a seven-year useful life. We incur costs in providing this service, principally employee, maintenance, property and transportation costs and fleet depreciation. Ashtead Group, Annual Report 2022.”
Customers
Ashtead offers industrial and construction equipment for rent on a short-term basis to a diversified base of customers like construction, industrial and homeowner customers, service, repair and facility management businesses, emergency response organizations, event organizers, as well as government entities such as municipalities and specialist contractors.
The Company serves 800.000+ customers with its largest reporting segment being the US. In 2022, Sunbelt US served 710,000 customers who generated an average annual rental revenue of $8,500 each indicating a highly fragmented customer base.
Markets
In terms of geographic mix, 81% of Ashtead’s FY22 revenue was from US, 12% from UK and 6% from Canada. The latest reported number of Ashtead’s locations/stores are 991 in the US, 93 in Canada and 181 in the UK. The below table highlights some of the key characteristics of each market.


Source: StockOpine Analysis, Ashtead Annual Reports and Quarterly Earnings Presentations
  • Trailing 12-month rental revenue divided by average fleet size at original cost measured over a 12-month period
The reduction of locations in the UK is part of management’s plan to migrate to a regional operating center model with fewer but larger locations.
Ashtead’s largest market is construction and represents 40% of the business (55% in FY2007) whereas non-construction business continues to expand by growing the Company’s specialty business. Non-construction related activity like live events, building maintenance, municipal activities and emergency response are typically less cyclical than construction.
General Tool and Specialty segments
In the US, Ashtead operates through General Tool and Specialty rental locations. The General Tool business includes equipment which is more directly related to construction like earth moving, forklifts, mobile elevating platforms, etc.
The specialty rental business consists of products with low rental penetration in predominately non-construction facing markets. Specialty includes the below businesses:
  • Power and HVAC
  • Climate control and Air Quality
  • Scaffold services
  • Flooring solutions
  • Pump Solutions
  • Lighting, Grip and Lens
  • Ground Protection
  • Industrial Tool
  • Shoring Solutions
  • Temporary Structures
The addition of Specialty stores enables Ashtead to differentiate itself and diversify its customer base and its end markets. Specialty is growing faster than the general tool business and accounted for approximately 30% of North America revenue in 2022 compared to 22% in FY2018.
According to Ashtead, specialty segment has $6B+ revenue potential and plans to increase segment revenue to $2.4B by 2024 ($2B in FY22) under its current strategic roadmap, Sunbelt 3.0.

Source: StockOpine Analysis, Ashtead Quarterly Earnings Presentations
Sunbelt 3.0 (April 2021 – 2024)
In April 2021, Ashtead launched its new strategic plan, Sunbelt 3.0. On a high level the growth plan communicated the following:
  • Add 298 (126 general tool and 172 specialty) locations across North America bringing the total to 1,234 by 2024. As of July 2022, Ashtead added 88 locations through greenfield openings and 35 through acquisitions.
  • Transform the UK business to deliver sustainable margins and returns.
  • Grow specialty business revenue from $1.4 billion to $2.4 billion. Specialty revenue was c.$2billion in FY22.
  • Grow the general tool business at 9% CAGR (55% from existing locations and 45% from greenfield openings).
4. EQUIPMENT RENTAL INDUSTRY
The equipment rental industry is primarily driven by construction activity, although rental penetration increased over the years to areas like theme parks, building maintenance, live events, movies, and television production. Hiring of equipment provides a number of benefits for customers as it frees up capital and provides access to skilled labor and technologically advanced equipment. Hiring of equipment is also the preferred choice in periods like today where economic uncertainty and cost of raising capital is high.
The industry has been undergoing consolidation with large players overtaking smaller ones and gaining significant scale advantages. The three leading rental equipment players in the US are United Rentals $URI, Ashtead (Sunbelt) $AHT.L, and Herc Rental $HRI which hold 16%, 12% and 4% of the market respectively.

Source: Statista
This compares to 4% and 5% market share for Ashtead and United Rentals respectively back in 2010. High fragmentation of the industry is evident by the remaining players’ market share, with the top 4-10 players holding 7%, top 11-100 holding 17% and the rest holding 44%.
Source: Ashtead First Quarter Results FY23 presentation
According to the American Rental Association (ARA), the US market of equipment rental is expected to grow by 11.2% to exceed $55.9 billion in 2022. ARA expects equipment rental revenue to grow by 6.2% in 2023, 2.5% in 2024, 3.3% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, reaching more than $65.1 billion.
In Canada, ARA forecasts equipment rental revenue to grow by 14.4% to $4.7 billion in 2022 and reach $5.4 billion by 2026. Ashtead’s market share in Canada according to management estimates, stands at 8% and is the second biggest player behind United Rentals which holds 18% share.
The UK equipment rental market is estimated at £6.6 (c. $7.8) billion and is expected to decline by -1.3% in 2022. Ashtead is the largest equipment rental company in the UK with a 10% market share.
Competition
Comparing the 3 key players, namely, United Rentals, Ashtead (Sunbelt) and Herc Rentals, Ashtead portrays better financial metrics. For instance, revenue and operating income CAGR in latest 8 fiscal years (“FY”) is 14.2% and 14.3%, respectively, well above the 8.8% and 9.2% of United Rentals and the 2.2% and 4.3% of Herc Rentals.
For the latest 5 fiscal years, United Rentals and Ashtead show similar margin profile with an average operating margin of 24.3% and 25.1%, respectively, whereas Herc with an average of 11.8%, lacks behind peers. It shall be noted that both United Rentals and Ashtead had a lower margin in the latest FY compared to the first FY of the analysis by c. 200bps, whereas Herc Rental increased its operating margin from 6% back in 2017 to 18.2% in 2021.
The growth of these companies is mainly funded through net capex (purchase of rental & non- rental equipment less proceeds from disposal) and acquisitions. In the latest 5 FY (excl. 2020) it is shown that Ashtead mainly funds growth through CAPEX (average of 27.4% over sales) compared to acquisitions of 11.9%, Herc with effectively only CAPEX (25.2% of sales) with the exception of 2021 where acquisitions spiked from near 0 to 20.8% of sales, and United Rentals uses an equal proportion of CAPEX and acquisitions (19.3% and 22.5%, respectively).
We cannot conclude whether one funding method is superior to the other as Returns on Capital (“RoC”) (latest 5 fiscal years) vary irrespective of method used, with United Rentals, Ashtead and Herc averaging at 9%, 11% and 4.9%, respectively. Although Ashtead seems to be superior, it shall be noted that it is the only company from the peer group that had a considerable decline compared to the first period under review (from 12.7% to 10.8%). This is not necessarily a cause of concern since returns are impacted by Koyfin calculation method which uses opening capital and in periods where a significant acquisition takes place, the RoC might be inflated as earnings include consolidated results. Therefore, average periods better serve for comparisons (though it should be monitored).
Source: Koyfin, StockOpine analysis | Note: Data represent latest fiscal year (Dec 31, 2021, for United Rentals and Herc Holdings, Apr 30, 2022, for Ashtead), Total Investments = Net CAPEX + Acquisitions
Going forward, Ashtead and United Rentals seem to be better positioned to take on leverage to fund their growth if needed since the Net Debt / EBITDA ratio (TTM) stand at 2.0x (2.0x in latest FY) and 2.9x (3.5x in latest FY), respectively, compared to 5.3x (5.0x in latest FY) of Herc. This is further justified by TTM Interest coverage ratio (EBIT / Interest Expense) which stands at 7.2x (7.0x in latest FY) for Ashtead, 7.7x (5.9x in latest FY) for United Rentals and 4.8x (4.4x in latest FY) for Herc.
Hope that you enjoyed reading this extract. If you are interested to read more, refer to our newsletter which also includes Financial Analysis, Competitive advantages, Opportunities and Risks, Valuation and Concluding Remarks.
Disclaimer: The team does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in the newsletter. All statements express personal opinions based on own financial and business analysis. Any estimates or forward-looking statements made are inherently unreliable. No statement of opinion is an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the financial instruments mentioned.
The content of our newsletter is not a trading or investment advice and we do not provide any personal investment advice tailored to the needs of any recipient.
This post may contain affiliate links, which means that we might get a commission if you decide to sign-up using any of these links. No extra cost is charged to you.
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@stockopine Great analysis, Team! Quality company and definitely one to hold in your portfolio long-term.
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Edmund Simms's avatar
$29.3m follower assets
Fed watch | Credit creation, cause and effect | November 23rd 2022
The Federal Reserve buys and sells securities and sets interest rates to influence: borrowing costs, lending activity, price stability, and productivity, with varying effects.

I also share this weekly update as a thread on Twitter if you prefer that.

•••

The Federal Reserve buys and sells securities

And sets interest rates

To influence: borrowing costs

Lending activity

Price stability

And productivity

With varying effects

•••

Why is this gobbledygook relevant?
The Federal Reserve creates money and uses it to buy bonds. They do this to push interest rates down and to put more money into the economy. Low rates mean people can borrow more, spend more, and afford higher prices. More spending and higher prices mean people feel rich, and businesses hire new employees.
But, if prices rise too quickly or people borrow too much, the Fed does the opposite. It sells the bonds it has and then destroys the money it receives. These sales push interest rates up and take money out of the economy. Higher rates mean people can't borrow or spend as much and must pay lower prices. It makes people feel poorer than before, stops them from being able to spend as much, and makes businesses trim employment.
In addition to this, the Fed borrows and lends to banks. If a bank doesn't have enough money for a day or two, it can borrow from the Fed. If it has too much, it can lend to the Fed. A group of people who work for the Fed, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), decide the interest rate that the Fed will pay for, or demand of, these short-term loans.
The Fed does these because they believe in two objectives: first, a low and stable inflation rate is good for the economy, and second, that minimising unemployment is desirable.

FAQs
Why do you look at weekly average balance sheet data instead of the Wednesday level?
It takes time for asset settlement to occur. The holdings on any given day will fluctuate wildly—especially given that the Fed owns almost $9trn of assets. The weekly average is smoother and more indicative of the monetary policy trend.

Sources

Notes
  • I will update this data weekly, usually Friday morning British time
  • Let me know in the comments if you would like something changed or added
  • I also share this weekly update as a thread on Twitter if you prefer that
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Benjamin Buchanan's avatar
$24.3m follower assets
Stock screener for historical data - seeking a recommendation
My goal is to find a stock screener that lets me sort by revenue/market cap/etc - but based on a time in the past, for example, pulling the top 200 companies by revenue from 2015. Can you do this on Koyfin? If so I haven't figured out how and would love to know. If you can't do it on Koyfin - does anyone know a tool where you can?

Thanks!
Luka 🦉's avatar
$104.2m follower assets
We are rewarded to keep our investments overnight

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Commonstock is a social network that amplifies the knowledge of the best investors, verified by actual track records for signal over noise. Community members can link their existing brokerage accounts and share their real time portfolio, performance and trades (by percent only, dollar amounts never shared). Commonstock is not a brokerage, but a social layer on top of existing brokerages helping to create more engaged and informed investors.