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StockOpine's avatar
$44.5m follower assets
Walmart Inc. – Harnessing the Power of Omnichannel Retailing
Every month we share 2 write-ups on companies we decided to examine as potential additions to our portfolio. Although the companies analysed may tick most of the boxes, if the margin of safety is not considered sufficient, we will not initiate a position but rather monitor the stock.

In case we decide to initiate a position at any time, we will share an Investment Thesis memo. For any additions to existing positions we will update you through our Quarterly Portfolio Updates.

The below is an extract from the Business Overview section $WMT (Walmart Inc. – Harnessing the Power of Omnichannel Retailing) released on 23rd of March. For the full write-up (in-depth analysis of financials, industry, management, valuation and more) you can subscribe to our newsletter.


Walmart International

This reporting segment has not followed the same trajectory as the US and there has been a lot of trial and error efforts, where Walmart invested and divested from various regions. It shall be noted that international sales include International Sam’s Clubs as well.

Currently, the international segment serves 19 countries outside the US with the largest in terms of stores and revenue being Mexico with nearly 3,000 stores (2,862 of which 168 are Sam’s Club) and Canada, Chile and China (43 Sam’s Club) each having c. 400 stores.

The most notable recent divestments were Walmart Brazil in fiscal 2019 (465 stores), Walmart Argentina in fiscal 2021 (Nov 2020, 92 stores), Asda in Feb 2021 in the United Kingdom (632 stores) and Japan – Seiyu in Mar 2021 (328 stores).

Source: Stratosphere.io, StockOpine analysis

Given this rough journey Walmart International revenue declined by a CAGR of 3.3% since FY14, reaching total sales of $101.0B in FY23 and accounting for 17% of total sales compared to 29% in FY14.

The drop in revenue was driven by the decline in revenues per store and the reduction in the number of stores. Revenue per store fell from $23M in FY14 to $19.1M in FY23 (CAGR of -2%) whereas the number of stores dropped from 6,107 to 5,306 (CAGR of -1.6%). The abnormal drop observed in FY16 revenues is driven by an FX impact of $17.1B whereas FY23 sales also had a negative FX impact of $3.7B.

The downward trend for revenues per store is likely to continue as Mexico stores increase faster than other countries, and as Mexico & Central America’s revenue per store in FY23 is lower at $11M Vs $55.1M for Canada and $38.6M for China. It shall be noted that Mexico stores increased from 2,199 in FY14 to 2,862 by FY23 (CAGR of 3%) whereas Canada was relatively flat (from 389 to 402) and China declined by 40 stores (from 405 to 365).

As it can be seen from the above graph, operating margin was on average 200bps lower than the US and the same applies for FY23 (International operating margin is 2.9% Vs 4.9% for US). Per the 10K report, gross margin is generally lower primarily due to format mix. For instance, Mexico which is the largest international segment has 2,290 Bodega Aurrera (including Express & Mi Bodega) that are smaller in size compared to supercentres which are the majority of stores in US. Fixed costs relative to square feet are relatively higher for smaller stores and as a result, operating margins are also lower. Divestures and restructurings also impact margins.

Source: Walmart 10K filings, StockOpine analysis

Internationally, Walmart offers similar services as in US and also aims to unlock value in marketplace, fulfilment, ads and financials (through PhonePe). Except the core retail (including ecommerce) these services are immaterial and although there is room for growth the timing to unlock it, is unknown. The most tangible medium term catalysts appear to be fulfilment services and financial services (especially PhonePe).

Before moving to Sam’s Club segment we want to dive into the position of Walmart in India through its ownership in Flipkart and PhonePe. The size of the opportunity is further addressed in the Industry section.


Flipkart, up until December 2022 owned PhonePe, a digital transaction platform in India. Following the separation, Walmart owns approximately 89% of PhonePe, up from c.76% prior to separation.

Flipkart is an eCommerce marketplace in India (including Flipkart and Myntra) in which Walmart is a majority shareholder with 75% ownership.

Flipkart also launched Flipkart Health+ (through the majority acquisition of SastaSundar Healthbuddy Limited), an online pharmacy and healthcare platform through which the company aims to tap India’s healthcare market. Seems to be late to the party as Amazon India started offering these services a year earlier. Needless to say that the market does not seem to be huge given Statista estimates of a $1.61B market in 2023 (expected to reach $2.61B by 2027).

To understand the strength and the flywheel for the Indian opportunity, and using Apptopia rankings, Flipkart was the 6th most downloaded shopping app globally in 2022 with total downloads of 115M (2021: 5th with 93M) whereas Shopsy (owned by Flipkart) was ranked as 5th with 141M downloads (2021: not in top 10).

Source: Apptopia

Looking at PhonePe it gets more interesting. Per Apptopia, PhonePe had 94M downloads worldwide for 2022 (2021: 79M) in Finance category, placing it 1st (2021: 3rd), even above PayPal which had 92M (2021: 106M and ranked 1st).

PhonePe is estimated to be used by 1 in 3 Indians or 450M users (a country with population of 1.4B) providing a significant opportunity for growth as PhonePe enhances its product offerings like Insurance, Wealth Management and UPI payments. For context, total PayPal active accounts as of 31st December 2022 were 435M (of which 35M are merchant accounts).

Walmart, strongly believes in the success and growth of PhonePe which explains the injection of $200M on 17th of March 2023 in PhonePe’s efforts to raise $1B.

To close this section, we lay down 3 quotes from the recent earning call (Feb 2023) that justifies the momentum in India (own emphasis):

  • “Our fast-growing businesses in India, Flipkart and PhonePe announced a full separation which allow both companies to focus on their own growth paths independently and help unlock value for shareholders. Flipkart has continued to strengthen its market leadership position in eCommerce and is entering this year with good momentum. PhonePe also announced the closing in January of the initial tranche of a fundraise that values the business at $12 billion pre-money. This is more than double the previous valuation just two years ago.” C. Douglas McMillon, President & CEO

  • Flipkart – “Flipkart continued its strong momentum through Diwali and other seasonal events. We are particularly pleased to see Flipkart's positive contribution margin expanding.” John Rainey, CFO

  • PhonePe – “PhonePe's recent valuation that Doug talked about was supported by annualized TPV reaching more than $950 billion, about 50% higher than just one year ago, while also exceeding more than 4 billion monthly transactions.” John Rainey, CFO

PhonePe (latest pre-money valuation $12B) is already huge in terms of volume when compared to PayPal (market cap of $83B) which had annual TPV of $1.36T in 2022 and processed 6 billion transactions in Q4 2022, though, considering its valuation we presume that monetization and profitability are well below PayPal. This provides a significant opportunity.

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Disclaimer: The content of our newsletter is not a trading or investment advice and we do not provide any personal investment advice tailored to the needs of any recipient. The information provided should not be considered as a specific advice on the merits of any investment decision.
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Really interesting insights on Flipkart! I didn't know that Walmart is the majority shareholder of the company. I first became aware of the company when it was the early alternative to Amazon in India.

See more of what you want

Edmund Simms's avatar
$30.9m follower assets
Banking on bargains—are lenders cheap yet?
Recent financial market turmoil has pushed banks' share prices down. No doubt some of it is justifiable. But, amongst the rubble, investors should be able to find some bargains.


“Bank for sale” by DALL∙E 2

It's been a shocking month for banks. A few weeks ago, analysts were sure the economy was powering full steam ahead. Now they're worried the fallout from Silicon Valley Bank's demise will cause a deep recession. It's not only an American problem, however. Over in Europe, Swiss authorities sold Credit Suisse, one of the country's oldest institutions, to UBS, another big lender. Unsurprisingly, bank stocks have fallen amongst the carnage.

The KBW index, a tracker of American bank stocks, has fallen 27% over the last three weeks. That raises the question: are bank stocks cheap yet? My research suggests that regional American banks are inexpensive if the current batch of problems doesn't kill them. But large banks will have to fall further before they become interesting.

America's banking market has significant upside from current prices

Overall, the banking industry is cheap. All 550-ish public American banks are worth between $1.8trn and $2trn. That's a 32% upside from the current $1.5trn market cap. Moreover, Monte Carlo simulation, a statistical scenario analysis, suggests current prices are below the 20th percentile of potential values. Or, put another way, there's a one-in-five chance bank stocks are expensive.

The sector as a whole is stunningly profitable. Last year, American banks made $160bn of profit on $1.4trn of equity—an 11% return. Of that profit, they paid out $57bn, or 36%, to shareholders. Consequently, industry profits should grow by 7% this year. But investors reckon the opposite will happen. They've priced bank earnings to drop 2% this year and next.

Investors are nervous that interest rate rises might kick off a stream of defaults, causing bank earnings to fall. They're also wary that depositors, spooked by the run on SVB, might empty their accounts. Bank-run contagion would push small banks to the edge unless lawmakers stepped in again to guarantee deposits. Liquidity problems and higher default rates would weigh on earnings, especially with lower bond prices. That and higher capital costs would slash valuations.

Still, interest rate rises will also help bank profits. Their net interest margins, the gap between the rates banks borrow and lend at, will rise. Banks are quick to raise the rates they charge but slow to raise the rates they pay. That will boost bottom lines, potentially offsetting defaults. Unless there are immense regulatory or interest rate shocks, the banking market, as a whole, is cheap.

Searching for bargains: regional banks versus money centres

Although the entire industry looks undervalued, the large end of the market doesn't seem cheap. Big money centre banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America trade at a fair price based on their price-to-book (PB) ratios. Currently, the ten largest banks by assets managed have an average PB ratio of one, almost exactly where it should be.

Bank investors typically value banks based on the ratio of their return on equity (ROE) to their cost of equity. Banks that earn a lot of profit per dollar of equity will be worth more than banks that don't. Similarly, banks with a higher equity cost will be worth less than those with a lower one.

The ratios for the big banks have moved around a lot over the last couple of decades. Returns on equity fell during the global financial crisis (GFC) and haven't recovered. Lawmakers forced banks to hold more capital and focus on safer loans. Earning excess profits became harder. Since then, big lenders have made a meagre 8% return on their equity capital—the same as that capital's cost.

The big banks are much more capital-intensive than they used to be. These days, more equity must be reinvested for them to grow because loans generate less revenue at low-interest rates than high ones. As rates dropped, banks had to do bigger loans to move the needle. That meant more equity had to be retained, and returns fell. Consequently, investors haven't been willing to pay the lavish multiples they used to.

But, if interest rates keep increasing, banks' capital efficiency could improve. Higher rates would beget higher revenues. And more revenue per dollar of shareholders' equity would, in turn, push ROEs and PB multiples up. Still, even at higher rates, improvements in the capital efficiency of these big banks is capped. After SVB's collapse, regulators must be itching to roll out new red tape to restrict what banks can and can't do. New laws will probably tell banks to hold even more capital and narrow the scope of lending. This, in turn, will hamper capital efficiency gains.

Learning from the last crisis

For the industry to be cheap as a whole while the big banks aren't, there must be bargains amongst the smaller regional banks. Bank opaqueness and complexity puts-off many investors. Orthodoxy amongst traders is that small banks won't get bailed out, while big ones will. That makes them seem like a riskier bet. Still, small regional banks are likely a lush hunting ground for savvy investors.

Coming out of the GFC, investors who could buy banks during periods of panic did well. In September 2008, Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett's conglomerate, invested $5bn in Goldman Sachs. Berkshire got preferred shares with a 10% annual dividend and options to buy 43m shares. By 2013, five years later, the investment had made a $3.3bn profit.

You're not The Oracle. Nor am I. And the banking system is not as distressed as it was then. But, with the right approach and a keen eye for opportunity, investors can spot lucrative deals, just as Buffett did then.
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I always appreciate your analysis and visuals :)
Giuliano's avatar
$5.5m follower assets
I started researching the next company I'll cover. Decided to go with Zoetis, any opinions on the company?
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Hey @giuliano_mana! Looking forward to your thoughts on $ZTS. I feel like Zoetis was the cool thing 10 years ago when it spun off from Pfizer. Do you see it as a growth play or more a dividend/safety play?
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MAPsignals's avatar
$3.6m follower assets
Quality Stock Picking Wins in the End
There’s an old saying on Wall Street, Bears make headlines, bulls make money.

It’s true. Fear-driven headlines can easily get investors off course.

Ultimately, quality stock picking wins in the end.

I’m fortunate to have lived through a handful of market pullbacks: the Global Financial Crisis, Taper Tantrum, COVID-19, and more. Let’s go ahead and add the latest bear-fueled worry: the banking crisis.

Now, I can’t minimize these episodes, as they are and were real concerns. However, the market tends to sort setbacks out eventually. Bear markets don’t last forever.

Betting on great businesses has been a winning recipe over the long-term.

Today, we’ll dive into the latest data and size up the current supply and demand narrative. Sellers have been in control for well over a month, but that’s only half the story. One group of stocks has been under healthy accumulation: High-quality growth.

Many of our best performing stocks over the years are in demand. I’ll showcase one example company, and how our data-driven process highlights these outliers.

First, let’s check in on the data landscape.

Since early February, outflows have ruled our data. We noted heavy overhead supply was weighing on stocks. The wave of selling dropped our Big Money Index (BMI) from overbought to nearly oversold levels in a few short weeks.
While we didn’t hit the oversold threshold of 25%, we did break 30%. Interestingly, the latest lift in markets has lifted the BMI ever so slightly:

Diving under the hood, we can see how the recent gains aren’t due to heavy buying, rather it’s from a slowdown in selling. When selling drops, stocks pop:

All things being equal, this is constructive action. This doesn’t mean it’s an all-clear signal. It simply indicates that the latest banking crisis worry has made progress.

While stories of bank runs and high interest rates gripped the TV screens, under the surface of the market there’ve been green shoots. Select Technology and Discretionary stocks have been under accumulation.

Our quantitative process is all about cutting through the noise and isolating what drives stock prices: supply and demand. We rank and score thousands of equities looking at fundamental qualities like sales growth, earnings growth, and more.

What we’ve found is simple: Great companies tend to grow earnings year after year, and stock prices reflect those earnings. Top performing companies have stocks that are consistently in demand.

So, where has the demand been? Technology and Discretionary names reign supreme in 2023. A great way to see that is via our sector ranking chart.

High MAP Scores reflect not only demand for the groups, but also the overall health. Each week for subscribers we display a Top 20 list ranking the highest scoring stocks under accumulation. These are the best of the best.

Unsurprisingly, 9 of the top 10 most bought names in Q1 were in the Tech and Discretionary space. Sifting through the market carnage reveals bright spots.

One great example is Arista Networks ($ANET). With a MAP Score of 91, the company has been firing on all cylinders technically and fundamentally. Below shows that the stock was a Top 20 stock 4 times YTD:

Each blue bar encompasses healthy fundamentals alongside heavy accumulation. A quick look at the sales and earnings trends paints a quality picture. The company sports 3-year sales growth rate of 24% and 3-year EPS growth rate of 22%:

These are rock-solid numbers that easily attract institutional demand.

If you zoom out, you’ll see that the inflows have been constant in this name for many years. Since 2015, $ANET has made our Top 20 list an incredible 59 times. Data is powerful:

This chart highlights how quality stock picking wins in the end. Market pullbacks will come and go, but as investors we should keep turning over as many stones as possible.

Data helps reveal the winners.

Let’s wrap up.

Here’s the bottom line: The recent drawdown in stocks has slowed. Green shoots can be seen in high-quality growth as they are under accumulation. One great example stock in our research is Arista Networks.

Focusing on sales and earnings growth has been a winning recipe for years…and even in today’s tough market conditions. There is a rush to quality in 2023.

Over the long-run, investing is all about finding the best businesses and holding.
Bears make the biggest headlines. Bulls make the money.

Let MAPsignals help you discover great businesses. Get started with a subscription today!
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Steve Matt's avatar
$19.7m follower assets
My Q1 returns are in! Hello needed turnover.
Q1 saw immense turnover in my portfolio as I sold 12.5% of my IRA positions, 8% of my 401k positions, and 25% of my taxable positions. To read more about this, check out my post aptly titled Carnage Thursday. This was all just a week or so before $SIVB collapsed.

IRA Portfolio (heavily weighted towards growth)
Here’s the list of the positions I sold along with how they performed. You’ll notice most of the time held indicates they were initially purchased during the 2020-2021 euphoria. That’s why they were all small plays for me, most were 1/3 to 1/5 the size of my normal investment. The only two that were full investments was $GNOM and $SBNY (sold 9 days before the FDIC seized the bank).

Time held: 0.87 years
Total Return: (7.1%)
$SPY Total Return: (10.0%)
$QQQ Total Return: (14.4%)

Time held: 1.83 years
Total Return: (57.0%)
SPY Total Return: (5.1%)
QQQ Total Return: (12.3%)

Time held: 2.19 years
Total Return: (81.7%)
SPY Total Return: (4.9%)
QQQ Total Return: (15.5%)

Time held: 1.83 years
Total Return: (68.8%)
SPY Total Return: (8.4%)
QQQ Total Return: (16.7%)

Time held: 2.37 years
Total Return: (56.2%)
SPY Total Return: +6.1%
QQQ Total Return: (5.7%)

Time held: 1.14 years
Total Return: (80.8%)
SPY Total Return: (13.7%)
QQQ Total Return: (21.5%)

Time held: 2.67 years
Total Return: (63.5%)
SPY Total Return: +19.7%
QQQ Total Return: +9.5%

Time held: 2.18 years
Total Return: (46.9%)
SPY Total Return: (1.8%)
QQQ Total Return: (9.3%)

Time held: 1.44 years
Total Return: (68.0%)
SPY Total Return: (9.6%)
QQQ Total Return: (18.2%)

Time held: 1.71 years
Total Return: (19.7%)
SPY Total Return: (8.5%)
QQQ Total Return: (13.0%)

Also, the market was nice enough to take SIVB away from me. I had a full initial investment in SIVB, a full initial investment being 1% of my portfolio at the time of the purchase. My position was 1.22% of my portfolio at close of trading March 8. By 9amPT on March 10th, my position was entirely gone. On March 31, I was able to sell what became $SIVBQ for $0.927 per share. Woo!

Time held: 2.72 years
Total Return: (99.62%)
SPY Total Return: +25.1%
QQQ Total Return: +18.0%

Moving on in Q1, I opened a new position in $NTDOY. I also added to $BROS, $COST, $GLOB, $INSP, $MQ, $PATH, $PGNY, $SWAV, $UPST, and $YETI once each.

I also had DRIPs in $AAPL, $COST, $HD, $IIPR, $NLCP, $TSM, and $F, the latter including a large special dividend as a result of their monetization of their $RIVN investment. Woo!

401k Portfolio (heavily weighted towards stable, dividend paying companies)
Here’s the list of the positions I sold along with how they performed.

Time held: 0.75 years
Total Return: (8.8%)
SPY Total Return: +0.9%
QQQ Total Return: (0.6%)

Time held: 1.41 years
Total Return: +0.9%
SPY Total Return: (7.1%)
QQQ Total Return: (13.1%)

I added to $AMT, $MTN, and $XYL 5 times each, $CUBE, $SBUX, $SCI, and $V 4 times each, $HSY, $TSCO, $TTC, $TXN, and $UNH 3 times each, $UPS and $WM twice each, AND $MCD, $MKL, $PEP, and $UNP once each.

I also had DRIPs in $AMT, $BIPC, $CUBE, $HSY, $JPM, $MCD, $MPW, $MTN, $O, $PEP twice, $PLD, $SBUX, $SCI, $SHW, $TSCO, $TTC, $TXN, $UNH, $UNP, $UPS, $V, $WM, and $XYL. In addition to the sales listed earlier, I also exited $MPW and $O. That was part of my reallocation of my 401k to Dividend Knight companies. To read more about that, check my out my post aptly named Meet My Dividend Knights.

Here are those two sales and how they performed for me.

Time held: 1.03 years
Total Return: (35.0%)
SPY Total Return: (7.1%)
QQQ Total Return: (14.2%)

Time held: 1.32 years
Total Return: (0.3%)
SPY Total Return: (7.6%)
QQQ Total Return: (15.5%)

My combined IRA and 401k portfolios performed well, increasing 12.02% in Q1. My benchmark SPY portfolio trailed me with a 7.54% increase while my benchmark QQQ portfolio beat me with a 16.03% increase.

My best performing IRA/401k positions in Q1:

My worst performing IRA/401k positions in Q1:

Cash has entered my top 10 holdings! I'm going to try to keep it around 5% of my portfolio. It's currently at ~7.3%. MercadoLibre continues to be my largest holdings.

Taxable Portfolio
Here’s the list of the positions I sold along with how they performed.

Time held: 2.50 years
Total Return: (88.6%)
SPY Total Return: +10.9%
QQQ Total Return: (2.0%)

Time held: 1.90 years
Total Return: (82.2%)
SPY Total Return: (8.7%)
QQQ Total Return: (18.4%)

Time held: 2.18 years
Total Return: (83.6%)
SPY Total Return: +2.4%
QQQ Total Return: (8.6%)

Time held: 2.04 years
Total Return: (57.1%)
SPY Total Return: (4.0%)
QQQ Total Return: (7.1%)

Time held: 2.25 years
Total Return: (89.8%)
SPY Total Return: +5.6%
QQQ Total Return: (0.01%)

In Q1, I opened new positions in $MNDY and $SDGR. I also added to $NCNO twice and $DMTK, $DT, and $TMDX once each. No positions pay a dividend so there were no DRIPs.

Rough Q1 for my taxable portfolio, increasing just 1.47% vs. my benchmark SPY portfolio's return of 5.15% and my benchmark QQQ portfolio's 13.89% increase.

My best performing taxable positions in Q1:

My worst performing taxable positions in Q1:

The others in the below is $DMTK and $SDGR.

Alternative Investments

Fundrise: I’m going to begin reviewing the other investment options in Fundrise as I’m now putting a little bit more money into it because… (see Landa)

My Q1 return in Fundrise was (5.7%). My overall annualized return is (9.3%).

Landa: I’m out. I can’t handle the bugs and the latency of the app. I hope they improve because I’d love to jump back in in the future but for now, they aren’t ready for prime time. I exited three of my positions and am waiting on the other two to sell.

My Q1 return in Landa was (2.4%). My overall annualized return is 20.3%.

StartEngine: This continues to be my favorite of alternative investment platforms and also the most risky by far. I currently have angel investments in:
  • 3i Tech
  • Future Cardia
  • SapientX
  • Kari Gran
  • Boxabl
  • Rentberry
  • Innovega
  • Fanbase
  • Uncle's Ice Cream
  • Sparket
  • Autocase

I also have an investment in a signed edition Banksy artwork, Laugh Now. This was just for fun and I plan to sell my shares when trading opens.

Of the above investments, none have gone bankrupt yet. Last year, Rentberry raised additional funds at a higher valuation which gave me my first angel investing paper gain. In Q1, another investment, Future Cardia, began raising funds at a higher valuation, giving me a paper gain of 47.5%.
My Q1 return in StartEngine was 2.8%. My overall annualized return is 14.4%.

In totality, Fundrise, Landa, and StartEngine make up ~1.8% of my overall investment portfolio, my taxable brokerage makes up ~7.4%, my 401k brokerage makes up ~10.9%, and my retirement brokerage is the remaining 79.9%.

I currently have the following position counts:
IRA Brokerage – 61 positions. Of these, I actively track 50 positions The other 11 are considered core holdings that I’m comfortable following just on the periphery.
401k brokerage – 22 positions. Of these, I actively none of them. They are all core holdings that I’m comfortable following just on the periphery.
Taxable brokerage – 11 positions. Of these, I actively all of them. None are considered core holdings.

A core holding being a company that I view as incredibly stable and doesn’t require deep dives into financials and KPIs each and every quarter. Some examples of core holdings are $AAPL, $F, $HD, $NTDOY, $COST, etc.
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Fun to hear about the alternative investment apps. I've heard a bit about Landa, and yeah, probably has more maturing to do before it's prime time.
Stock Buybacks
According to a post on HBR by Alex Edmans, firms that buyback stock subsequently outperform their peers by 12.1% over the next four years.

I just wrote a post on Stock Buybacks on my Substack.

You can check it out for FREE below:

Buffet Criteria:
• Do you have all the money you need to develop the kind of business that you have in your head for the next 5 to 10 years?
• Is your stock selling for less than its worth?

Yes, yes? ➡️ Buy back stock
Paul Cerro's avatar
$39.4m follower assets
Millennials are anxious about money—just like everyone else
About 8 in 10 millennials are concerned about savings, according to Bankrate. They’re outnumbered only by Gen Zers, who have grown up in the shadow of millennial debt.

Older millennials are saddled with more debt than any other US age group, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, as student debt compounds with housing and childcare costs.

As inflation persists, that means millennials are cautious about discretionary spending and saving for necessities.
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Fintwit's avatar
$129.4m follower assets
Nasdaq enters bull market
The Nasdaq 100 is up 20% from its December low, putting it in a technical bull market.
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Dave Ahern's avatar
$4.8m follower assets
A Primer on EBITDA
Below is a simple graphic highlighting the metric EBITDA.

Many companies and analysts use EBITDA as a measure of profitability and a proxy for free cash flow.

Simple, but powerful metric allows us to compare others in the same industry.
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Steve Matt's avatar
$19.7m follower assets
Rule of 100? Not anymore! Rule of 40 Rules Again
~9 months ago, I made the linked post jokingly about how rule of 100 is the new rule of 40.

Seems like a good time to update those companies and highlight a few others. All of them have declined, although some just a few percentage points. Then there's Upstart...

  • $UPST: Then: 271% /// Now: -84%. Yes, NEGATIVE.
  • $ABNB: Then: 135% /// Now: 81%
  • $DDOG: Then: 106% /// Now: 84%
  • $DOCS: Then: 101% /// Now: 70%
  • $SNOW: Then: 100% /// Now: 93%
Honorable mentions:
  • $CRWD: 93% /// Now: 85%
  • $ZS: 80% /// Now: 77%

As of today, I don't own any companies who are in the Rule of 100 stratosphere. I follow but don't own $YOU who is at 104% but that drops to 72% when using FCF ex. SBC.

Some companies I own who are easily exceeding the Rule of 40 right now:
  • $MELI at 73% and that only drops to 72% because they don't dilute shareholders, even with SBC.
  • $MNDY at 70% (50% ex. SBC)
  • $PERI at 53% (51% ex. SBC)
  • $ADSK at 55% (43% ex. SBC)
  • $DT at 53% (41% ex. SBC)

Yegor's avatar
$183.1m follower assets
I got about 10-15% of portfolio coming in💰 soon that will need to deploy asap (although willing to wait)

Anyone can share some names that’s (in their eyes) undervalued and or approaching those levels?

Share some names below ⬇️

Check out our quarterly portfolio update which we will release over the coming days. You might pick a name that you are interested.
+ 1 comment
Arnaldo Trezzi's avatar
$19m follower assets
How $PLTR is perceived:
  • FinTwit: SBC
  • Value Investor: trash
  • Analysts: SPACs
  • Wall Street: Not ESG
  • SaaS Experts: Consultancy
  • Cramer: Black Box
  • Media: Trump-backing SPY
  • Karp: $1 trillion
  • Palantards: YOLO
  • Foxglove: Satana
  • Ukraine: Holy grail
  • Russia: HOLY SH!T

How do you see Palantir?
Battleground. High conviction views on both sides. Feels like a binary outcome.
Samuel Meciar's avatar
$38.3m follower assets
$ASML is expected to grow its EPS at a 28% CAGR over the next 3FY. Comparable growth rate as $NVDA which benefits from the fact that their EPS actually declined last year by 25% (easier comps).

Let me remind you that $ASML has no competition in cutting-edge lithography.

I can't find a better semi company that benefits from such a variety of computing tailwinds, at this kind of valuation and risk profile. Which is why it's my only semi pick and one of my Core positions.
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Edmund Simms's avatar
$30.9m follower assets
Vol. 3, No. 7
The latest issue of Valuabl—my twice-monthly newsletter providing value-oriented financial market analysis and investment ideas—is hot off the press.

Some of this issue's topics:
  • Bargains amongst regional American bank stocks.
  • Markets have calmed down a bit.
  • Energy firms are reinvesting like mad.
  • No recession in sight.
  • Value in cereal.

Not a subscriber? Click here to fix that.
Q1 2023 Portfolio Review
This quarter I was more active than usual. I spend most of 2022 travelling with the portfolio on auto pilot mode. With 2022 in the rear view mirror and after reviewing all of the year-end reports for my holdings, I have been able to reflect and make some adjustments.

You can read the full review here

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Nice portfolio!! 👏👏. Lots of great names, thanks for sharing 😁
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Yegor's avatar
$183.1m follower assets
Flash Crash: A Trading Savant, a Global Manhunt and the Most Mysterious Market Crash in History by Liam Vaughan.

Highly recommended reading or listening to audiobook.

Great recommendation. Just added it to my buy list.
But support your local bookstores, people! Don’t have a local shop? Order online from the historic Green Apple Books in SF! Independent, unionized, and genuinely awesome people. I have no affiliation with them other than that’s my go-to book store in SF.
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