As the mega-cap stocks continue to lead the major US stock indexes higher, my preference is to not chase this equity rally but rather to exercise patience while remaining defensibly positioned. Without knowing where or when the top of this rally will occur, I expect significant equity downside over the coming quarters.

Trying to nail down a precise recession or market downturn timeline is very difficult, so rather than trying to forecast precise timing, my primary focus is risk management with a sensible asset allocation for the current market environment.

When a market bottom is finally upon us, the opportunities for growth will be immense and my portfolio is built to take full advantage of such opportunities when the time arises. In the meantime, preservation of capital is key.