Good morning contrarians! Nancy Pelosi’s anticipated visit to Taiwan has stock futures on edge a little bit, but not as much as you might expect if World War 3 truly was imminent.

For whatever reason, the Pelosi visit is not being treated very seriously by the market. Even in Asia the sell-off was not particularly acute, with indexes in Hong Kong and Shanghai down no more than 2% and change. Investors are either being way too blase about this or they recognize Chinese bluster when they see it.

The Fed remains the bigger focus here. Are Powell and co really set to shift to a neutral stance on interest rates? How soon? These questions are front and center of investors’ minds. For now, the narrative that the Fed pivot is coming soon appears to be winning out, at least judging by markets. Most Powell-inspired rallies fade after a day or two. This one is almost a week old already.

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks this morning. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard after the close this afternoon.

Earnings: $DD just beat on top- and bottom-line and raised guidance. $MPC beat on top- and bottom-line. $CAT was mixed.

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