Fed Speakers, Earnings, JOLTS. Oh yeah, and Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan
Good morning contrarians! Nancy Pelosi’s anticipated visit to Taiwan has stock futures on edge a little bit, but not as much as you might expect if World War 3 truly was imminent.

For whatever reason, the Pelosi visit is not being treated very seriously by the market. Even in Asia the sell-off was not particularly acute, with indexes in Hong Kong and Shanghai down no more than 2% and change. Investors are either being way too blase about this or they recognize Chinese bluster when they see it.

The Fed remains the bigger focus here. Are Powell and co really set to shift to a neutral stance on interest rates? How soon? These questions are front and center of investors’ minds. For now, the narrative that the Fed pivot is coming soon appears to be winning out, at least judging by markets. Most Powell-inspired rallies fade after a day or two. This one is almost a week old already.

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks this morning. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard after the close this afternoon.

Earnings: $DD just beat on top- and bottom-line and raised guidance. $MPC beat on top- and bottom-line. $CAT was mixed.

More here:
June Portfolio Summary
June was an interesting month. Mr. Market continued its downward trend, and we ended up with the worst 1st half of the year in 50 years. If you are still here and investing, congratulations for weathering, hopefully, the worst storm of our lifetimes.

Personally, I had a pretty decent month. I collected a decent amount of dividends, restarted contributions to my Taxable account and was able to make some buys.

Let's get into it:

Not much to note in my Overall Top 10. This is the combination of both my Taxable and Roth IRA. All positions stayed the same as May, with some slight shifting in positions. Only percentage change was $VEA going from 7% at the end of May to 6% today. I will break down individual portfolios below.

Taxable Portfolio
% Change (vs S&P): -6.56% (+1.83%)
Contributions: $60
Dividends: $76.72 (+147% over June '21)
Buys: 1 share of $ABBV at $140.97 on 6/13
Dividend Reinvestments: 0.0278 shares of $CNA, 0.0279 shares of $DD, 0.0063 shares of $RTX, 0.0347 shares of $XLE, 0.0195 shares of $SCHD, 0.0392 shares of $VDE
Sells: None
Cash: 2.03%

Top 5 Positions:
  1. $CMA - 13%
  2. $VTI - 12%
  3. $VEA - 7%
  4. $PFE - 5%
  5. $VWO - 5%

Historic Trend:

Roth IRA
% Change (vs S&P): -17.19% (-8.8%)
Contributions: $0
Dividends: $30.23 (-4% over June '21)
Buys: None
Dividend Reinvestments: 0.0154 shares of $EMB, 0.0043 shares of $HSY, 0.0054 shares of $DD
Sells: None
Cash: 1.92%

Top 5 Positions:
  1. $VTI - 12%
  2. $VNQ- 12%
  3. $VIG - 9%
  4. $SBUX - 9%
  5. $HD - 7%

Historic Trend:

I am happy to have weathered this storm and continuing to be able to contribute and buy great companies.

I am a little concerned about performance of my Roth IRA, but keep the goal of the portfolio in the back of my mind - build a portfolio for dividend income for retirement. Seeing as I still have nearly 30 years (within 11 days) until I hit 59 1/2 & the penalty-free withdrawal age, I am not too concerned.

I am going to continue to stay the course and execute my plan. Hopefully Mr. Market will feel better with the summer sun and start turning this thing around!

Thanks for following along and I would love to hear any of your thoughts and questions in the comments!
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Daily Contrarian, May 3
Good morning contrarians! Stocks are flat in the pre-market after a nice rebound yesterday. There was some sustained buying into the close with the Nasdaq the biggest winner, up 1.6%.

Today we have JOLTS and factory orders, both out at 1000 ET. And a bunch of earnings: $PFE, $SBUX, $DD, $EL, $ABNB, and more.

More on what's moving markets in the daily briefing and podcast, now live for premium subscribers:

Portfolio Bracketology - $AAPL is the Champ!
Portfolio Bracketology has concluded and you have chosen $AAPL as your champ! $AAPL beat $VTI 21 - 16 in the final poll results (combined between Twitter and Commonstock poll).

Below is the final bracket:

The bracket was made up of all 55 of my active holdings - as verified here on @commonstock. Seeding was based on total return since initial acquisition date through 2/28/22. Final rankings are based on poll results - ranked in each round by initial seeding.

Here are final rankings of all 55 holdings based off the results of the bracket (Initial in Parentheses):

  1. $AAPL (3)
  2. $VTI (8)
  3. $O (21)
  4. $HD (42)
  5. $VDE (4)
  6. $BAM (11)
  7. $LOW (32)
  8. $TGT (47)
  9. $XLE (5)
  10. $ABBV (9)
  11. $SCHD (16)
  12. $KO (19)
  13. $VWO (20)
  14. $PFE (26)
  15. $SCHB (27)
  16. $PEP (31)
  17. $CMA (1)
  18. $CARR (2)
  19. $DD (6)
  20. $FUN (7)
  21. $RTX (10)
  22. $SCHF (15)
  23. $VEA (17)
  24. $MCD (24)
  25. $VNQ (28)
  26. $LEG (29)
  27. $SBUX (30)
  28. $HAS (40)
  29. $UL (43)
  30. $DIS (51)
  31. $COIN (52)
  32. $CTRE (53)
  33. $RVT (12)
  34. $VIG (13)
  35. $IEMG (14)
  36. $IEUR (18)
  37. $HASI (22)
  38. $PG (23)
  39. $CNA (25)
  40. $BUD (33)
  41. $CL (34)
  42. $HE (35)
  43. $TIPX (36)
  44. $VTEB (37)
  45. $PPL (38)
  46. $HSY (39)
  47. $CSX (41)
  48. $NSC (44)
  49. $LQD (45)
  50. $KMB (46)
  51. $BLV (48)
  52. $EMB (49)
  53. $T (50)
  54. $CRON (54)
  55. $CHWY (55)

Are there any surprises? Anything that stands out to you?

What are your overall thoughts on Portfolio Bracketology?

I had tons of fun putting this together and getting insight into people's perspective and thoughts on these companies holdings!
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That seems rad to me! I’ve never thought of putting your holdings head to head in a bracketed to-the-death tournament before! How do you determine the lineup to begin with?
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Q2 Portfolio Alignment
I do my best to stick to a routine cadence when it comes to investing. I have written about some of my methodology here, if you are interested.

Just like doing routine maintenance on your car, I do routine maintenance on my portfolio. The first weekend of each quarter I review my holdings and make updates to conviction ratings, reinvestment strategy and make any sales to trim positions. This routine alignment ensures I am on my intended path, but is also scheduled, so I don't go off the rails and make drastic changes on a whim.

Some of my rules for my portfolio alignment:

  • Sales - My rule is to trim overweight positions that I have held for 3+ years or sell positions that are <1% of my portfolio after 3+ years of holding.
  • Dividend Reinvestment - Reinvest dividends of S&P beaters in Taxable. Reinvest dividends of underweight holdings in Roth IRA.
  • Conviction Rating - Review each holding and record gut conviction (blind to previous rating)- either Low, Medium or High.

Taxable Brokerage

Sales:
None. $CMA and $VTI were candidates for me to sell, but I do not feel the need to trim these positions right now.

Dividend Reinvestment (Changes Only):

Conviction Rating (Changes Only):
  • $ABBV - Medium to High
  • $BUD - Medium to Low
  • $T - Low to Medium
  • $COIN - Medium to High
  • $DD - High to Medium
  • $MCD - High to Medium
  • $PEP - High to Medium
  • $PFE - High to Medium
  • $PG - High to Medium
  • $RTX - Medium to High
  • $RVT - Low to Medium
  • $SCHD - High to Medium
  • $UL - Medium to Low
  • $VIG - High to Medium

Roth IRA

Sales:
None. Could have trimmed $VWO and $VEA but didn't feel the need.

Dividend Reinvestment (Changes Only):

Conviction Rating (Changes Only):
  • $DD - High to Medium
  • $HSY - Medium to High
  • $KMB - High to Medium
  • $VIG - High to Medium
  • $VNQ - High to Medium

Reviewing my Conviction changes in both accounts, I am definitely leaning more conservative in most areas.

What are your thoughts? Do you do any portfolio maintenance activities? Would love to hear!

Have a great Sunday!
Dividend Forecast - Week of 3/14
Below are my incoming dividends for the week:

Taxable
$O - $0.25 per share, $0.52 total, cash
$MCD - $1.38 per share, $1.42 total, cash
$DD - $0.33 per share, $1.70 total, reinvesting

Roth IRA
$DD - $0.33 per share, $0.33 total, cash
$HSY - $0.90 per share, $0.90 total, cash
$CSX - $0.10 per share, $0.30 total, cash

Do you have any dividends coming in this week?
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