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Leandro
$111M follower assets
Doing deep research of individual companies in the chase of alpha. Main contributor at Best Anchor Stocks. There's a two week free-trial. Founder of The Global Investor
96 following1,869 followers
Zoetis' Q3 earnings
I wrote the following article on the Q3 earnings of $ZTS

The company strangely missed on the top and bottom. Knowing that the miss came from things under the company's control left a sour taste tbh

Anyways, I hope you enjoy it!
Seeking Alpha
Zoetis' Q3 Earnings: Supply Issues Putting A Dent On Growth (NYSE:ZTS)
Zoetis reported bad Q3 earnings and lowered its full-year guidance. Supply was primary reason for weak performance, and management expects it will also weigh on Q4 results. Read more here.

Some thoughts on volatility
Volatility is not risk on itself but in many cases it's a catalyst to the most significant risk of all: constant trading.

If an investor can't withstand volatility, it's highly unlikely they can cope with several 30% drops.

How many investors can hold this stock? Few, imho.

These are the returns the stock has provided despite those drops:

There are two legs to any worthwhile investment:

  1. Finding a high quality company and purchasing it at a fair price
  2. Being able to hold it for a long time

In my opinion, #2 is much more complex than #1.

Many investors think they can stomach volatility, but this is not something you can "think", it's something you must have gone through already to be 100% sure.

"Everyone is a long-term investor on the way up."

It's very different saying you can going through a 50% drop than actually doing it. If a stock drop makes you rethink your thesis then...

  1. You didn't do your homework
  2. Stock price is having an outsized impact on your rationality

Distinguishing between both isn't easy!

But don't worry! There are solutions. If you can't stomach volatility, you can...

A. Follow a coffee can approach where you protect yourself from volatility by not looking at stock prices

B. Build a portfolio that does not suffer such sharp drops frequently

The drawback for (a) is that it requires a static portfolio and most portfolios are dynamic.

Dynamic not in the sense of constantly changing positions, but dynamic in the sense of continuous contributions.

The vast majority of people contribute throughout their lifetimes to their portfolios, so isolating from stock prices is not easy.

(b) is achievable, though.

To build a portfolio tailored to your needs, first, you need to know what level of volatility you can cope with (ie., know yourself).

Once you know this you can then build a portfolio that is "easy" to hold.

Volatility is NOT a risk, but it can surely lead you to cutting the flowers and watering the weeds

The graphs belong to $NVDA btw!
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I heard an interesting interview in a podcast where they were discussing how do you know the difference between being long term vs you are just a bad investor?

It’s quite provocative because it might be a long time where it appears one way but then turns out to be another. I especially think about some growth funds that seemed like they were excellent investors over a 5 + year period and have now had nearly all their gains wiped out. At the very least they failed to see a shift in the market…

You can focus on the fundamentals of the company and ignore the price, but the way the market judges those fundamentals can change over time. Maybe the trick is to at least be aware of when we are at the extreme of one paradigm vs another.


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$MSFT entering the creative industry and what it means for $ADBE
I wrote an article on $MSFT's new design offering "Create" and what it means for companies such as Canva and $ADBE.

Imho, the company that comes out worse out of this is Canva, as Microsoft and Adobe are using their competing offerings as part of a bigger goal

  • Microsoft: make Microsoft 365 more complete to raise prices in the future (?)

  • Adobe: upsell the Creative Cloud

Canva will have to make its core product profitable, and it looks like the industry is shaping to be very competitive and price sensitive

Of course, it's still soon to tell how the competitive landscape will evolve.

Imho, Adobe has an advantage with respect to other offerings because...

(a) It already has a strong community of creators
(b) It will be able to offer some powerful features from other Creative Cloud products such as photoshop

It seems pretty obvious that Adobe Express caters to non-professionals with the objective of widening the top of the funnel.

However, the company recently explained that Express is also an add-on to the "pro" offerings as it allows professionals to do things quickly.

If you want to know more about Adobe Express and its capabilities, you can watch the recent Adobe MAX Keynote here.

Seeking Alpha
Microsoft Enters Adobe's Space (NASDAQ:MSFT)
Microsoft has launched Create, a comprehensive offering that targets digital creators. The two key products of the offering are Designer and Clipchamp. We discuss what they do.

Great thoughts, and as a regular user of Canva, I wonder how Adobe shapes up compared to Canva? As a challenged designer with zero skills, Canva has been a wonder. Will have to try out Adobe's product. Thanks for sharing :)
+ 1 comment
Don't look at P/E ratios in isolation
If you're looking at P/Es in isolation, you're doing it wrong.

ROIC plays a critical role in determining what an appropriate multiple is for any given company. High returns matter, even if you can't see them at first sight.

The rationale is that higher ROIC companies will achieve earnings (or FCF) with less reinvestment needs, so there will be more excess cash to return to shareholders.

This means that FCF (ie., excess cash) will be higher for any given level of growth for high-ROIC companies.

Quick question...

  • Company A is trading at a P/E of 10
  • Company B is trading at a P/E of 30

Which company is cheaper? Turns out that an investor shouldn't answer this question without digging deeper. Still, many investors would choose company A.

Let's look at the table above. Assuming the required return is 9.5%...

  • Company A will be overvalued if its ROIC spread is negative and the company is growing. Negative ROIC spread coupled with growth destroys shareholder value.
  • Similarly, company B will be undervalued if ROIC spread is above 6% and earnings growth is 8% of higher (table above).

Valuation, like everything in investing, needs context. The market will price a company according to:

1) Free Cash Flow
2) Growth
3) ROIC spread

If an investor estimates what the market prices into those metrics and gets to the conclusion that the market is being too pessimistic, it might offer a good opportunity, regardless of an apparently high PE

This is a great piece on the matter:
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www.eipny.com
The P/E Ratio: A User’s Manual

12 patterns in high quality companies
Recently finished reading "Quality Investing" by Lawrence Cunningham and Torkell Eide.

The book serves as a good guide in the search for quality companies.

Here are 12 common patterns across these types of companies:
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@mavix10/24/2022
One of the few books i acutally read last year and not just bought and then forgot about it 🙈😅
+ 3 comments
Management alignment at $CPRT
Jay Adair, $CPRT co-CEO, receives a base salary of $1 and stock options only if the stock price increases

Talk about alignment
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My first podcast ft. Chris Mayer, author of 100 baggers
I'm rather new to all this podcasting stuff, but I invited Chris Mayer over to talk about various investment-related topics and $CPRT

I released the conversation a couple of weeks ago for subs.

Hope you enjoy it!

Apple Podcasts
‎Best Anchor Stocks on Apple Podcasts
‎Business · 2023

This surprised me! Remember you talking about a podcast a while back, but this is a great way to kick things off, congrats Leandro!
+ 12 comments
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