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@invesquotes
Leandro
$111.1M follower assets
Doing deep research of individual companies in the chase of alpha. Main contributor at Best Anchor Stocks. There's a two week free-trial. Founder of The Global Investor
96 following1,869 followers
Is ASML expensive?
Yesterday I uploaded an article on the valuation of $ASML. I go over it from three angles:

  1. Multiples
  2. Inverse DCF
  3. Management's guidance

Hope you like it and feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments!
Seeking Alpha
ASML Holding Stock: Worth The Hype? (NASDAQ:ASML)
While many believe ASML Holding to be extremely expensive, it might be fairly valued at these levels. Find out why ASML stock is a Hold.

Great point about how ASML’s forward earnings estimates are more accurate than your average company because of how strong their order backlog is.
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All You Need To Know About Semiconductors
This week I upload it a primer on the semiconductor industry that should serve beginners understand the structure and how the different players participate.

When I did my initial research I struggled to find an introductory article, so after doing all my research I decided to build it myself

Hope you enjoy it!
www.bestanchorstocks.com
All You Need To Know About Semiconductors
The most important industry in the world?

Great overview— I appreciate that you mentioned many of the companies in the sector so investors can check them out further :)
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The Advantage Of The Individual Investor
Many believe that individual investors are at a clear disadvantage compared to professional investors, but is this really the case?

In this article I explore the type of edges available to individual investors, focusing on one that sets us apart
www.bestanchorstocks.com
The Advantage Of The Individual Investor
There's a long-standing truth that individual investors can't beat professionals. In this article we explore the type of edges an investor can have and discuss which one of those applies to the individual investor.

I love Peter Lynch's writing on advantages to the individual investor--access to microcaps, no investors forcing us to liquidate our portfolios, no mandates on holding period or ridiculous short-term performance goals
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How Copart's management speaks to shareholders
Find a good company in a good industry where management talks like this about capital allocation and sit tight

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A better way to judge valuation: ignore DCFs
Coming out with Price Targets via direct DCFs is a sure way of being wrong. I prefer to...

1) Build an inverse DCF to find out what FCF growth is embedded in the current stock price

2) Understand what needs to happen to achieve that FCF growth (hundreds of possibilities here but probably few make sense for that business in particular)

3) Judge wether the things that need to happen are reasonable or not (need to know the company well to judge this)

A glance at the semiconductor industry
I felt like sharing some semiconductor-related content now that semis "are back" (they never left!) after $NVDA's great earnings (disc. no position)

First, a simple visual that explains the industry's structure. People who already know the industry might find this basic, but I struggled to find something similar when doing my research:

I then decided to do a somewhat more complex visual with some more info on the industry. I tried to condense it one page but found it impossible, so I did a three-pager

Part 1: Types of chips and how they are made:

Part 2: The manufacturing process, Moore's Law, and a bit of history

Part 3: The industry today and geopolitical tensions

Semis is undoubtedly a cyclical industry, but this doesn't mean that it does not have secular growth ahead of it.

This graph made by $TXN is a great example of this cyclical-secular dynamic. Over the short to medium term there are ups and downs, but the LT trend is up

A cyclical-secular industry with great companies should be an investor's dream as it gives opportunities for those that are LT oriented and can see through the noise
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Constellation Software's Q1 Earnings
Wrote an article on Constellation's Q1 earnings.

Highlights for me:

  • Good organic growth which seems to be sustaining at a good level for longer and which should relax the pressure off M&A
  • Altera doing well as the largest acquisition ever

Hope you enjoy it!
Seeking Alpha
Constellation Software Q1: The Wings Of Dual Growth (CNSWF)
Constellation Software reported a great Q1 2023. Highlights were in organic growth and capital deployed. Click here to read our review of CNSWF stock prospects.

Thanks, @invesquotes! Sadly I appear to be out of free SA articles for the month. I'm curious if Mark Leonard had anything interesting to say, though, about Constellation or their strategy or the macro environment?
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Books, books, books
Reading is one of the most important "tasks" for any investor.

I almost never remember the entire content of a book, but there's always a lesson that sticks with me for a long time.

Here's a list of 10 of my favorite books and the lesson I learned from them.

(1) Capital Returns by Edward Chancellor

  • Lesson: Cyclical industries can be great to invest in when coupled with great management that understands their cycles.

(It's a bit expensive but worth it imho)

(2) Quality of Earnings by Thornton O'glove

  • Lesson: Accounting can be pretty misleading. There's always a lot of noise in the financial statements, so we must adapt them to really understand how the business is doing.

(3) Capital Allocation by David Giroux

  • Lesson: Good capital allocation can significantly augment investment returns, the same way that bad capital allocation can destroy them. It's all about opportunity cost.

(4) Expectations Investing by Michael Mauboussin

  • Lesson: Investing is a game of expectations vs. reality. Find out what's baked into a stock and judge wether a company can beat it or not.

Led me to start looking at valuation through an inverse DCF.

(5) Flash Crash by Liam Vaughan

  • Lesson: Fundamentals don't move stock prices over the short term. People who create these short term moves might not even know the industry where the company operates in.

Helped me to not care a thing about short term moves.

(6) When Genius Failed by Roger Lowenstein

  • Lesson: Leverage and ego can kill your returns. EQ and humility matters more than IQ. As simple as this.

(7) Antifragile by Taleb

  • Lesson: there are always unknown risks that are impossible to foresee (Black Swans), but antifragile companies can come out stronger from these.

(8) Built to Last by Jim Collins and Jerry Porras

  • Lesson: Getting to be a great company is tough, but staying a great company is even tougher. When you have a lot to lose you can't become complacent.

Complacency is the #1 risk for any great company.

(9) Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits by Phil Fisher

  • Lesson: There are few variables that really matter and one must remain contrarian if the thesis is intact.

(10) There's Always Something To Do by Christopher Risso-Gill

  • Lesson: Opportunities are always present in the market, but only for the prepared mind that has done the homework in advance.
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Mark Leonard's challenge
Mark Leonard, Constellation Software's president and founder, put out a challenge yesterday for investors:

"Study Appfolio and study Veeva and send me your thoughts on them, and I'll post my responses on our website regarding those two businesses."


Amazon is a complex business, but better to not overcomplicate the thesis
I wrote an article on $AMZN recent earnings, discussing the variables that really matter and how those are trending in the right direction

Hope you enjoy it!
Seeking Alpha
Amazon Stock: Don't Overcomplicate The Thesis (NASDAQ:AMZN)
Amazon reported Q1 earnings last week and AMZN stock saw significant volatility: from up 15% after hours to down 4% the next day. Read our take here.

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