@invesquotes

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$123.2M follower assets

Doing deep research of individual companies in the chase of alpha.

Main contributor at Best Anchor Stocks. There's a two week free-trial.

Founder of The Global Investor
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Leandro's avatar
$123.2m follower assets
How long does a technological revolution last?
I have started reading the book "Technological revolutions and financial capital" by Carlota Perez and found this chart pretty interesting.

According to the author, technological revolutions typically last around 50 years and are divided into 4 phases:

It's often the case when the tech is already there but the society and the institutions must be willing to adapt to it. This is why it takes some time until the revolution reaches phase one.

This lag, imho, might be what happened during the dotcom bubble. The internet was in gestation period but stock prices were already reflecting explosive growth. The revolution came, but it did so later than investors anticipated.

What do you think will be the next technological revolution?
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Leandro's avatar
$123.2m follower assets
Leandro's avatar
$123.2m follower assets
ROIC Cheat Sheet
Created this cheat sheet on Return on Invested Capital (ROIC). I go over what it measures, how investors can interpret it and how it's measured.

🚨 Only to be used in the context of more mature companies
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Nice cheat sheet. I like approaches that provide simple answers to simple questions. In this case, “Is this company creating or destroying value”. As you’ve mentioned companies at various stages of their life cycle have different questions that are applicable towards evaluating whether they are investable.

I’d love to see more of this, thanks for putting it together!
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$123.2m follower assets
Coming out stronger from a recession
What holding of yours can benefit this way from a recession?

I’d say $ADBE is one of mine
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Leandro's avatar
$123.2m follower assets
When to sell
Many months ago (when I was not even active on CommonStock) I uploaded this simplified framework to Twitter that outlines "When to sell", which is often the most difficult part in investing:

Hope it helps if you are ever in doubt!

p.s: it's oriented toward the buy&hold investor who focuses on fundamentals!
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$123.2m follower assets
There's a constant grave dancing on Twitter, glad that we don't have that here.

People who grave dance on the mistakes of others demonstrate a couple of things and I don't think one of them is good.

  • They are judging the past with the eyes of the present: Yes, many growth stocks are significantly down and they were obviously overpriced but it's much easier to say this in hindsight. This leads people to believe that stock down = shitco, which in some cases is true but in others isn't.
  • They are spending their time in the wrong things: what you get out of grave dancing is absolutely nothing. I have never seen an investor that learns to invest better by grave dancing. Probably a reasonable investor would go back, check what he/she did wrong, improve and continue his/her path.
  • They are trying to portray that they have not made mistakes: maybe what they didn't do is share what they were doing at the time. Everyone makes mistakes (Druckenmiller lost a couple billion dollars during the dotcom bubble and it made him improve) but the important thing is what you learn from them and not the mistake per se.

Of course with the S&P 500 down 20% and the Nasdaq down more than 30%, I highly doubt these people don't hold something in their portfolio that is 50% off-highs (they won't tell you though).

Of course, some people who are receiving the grave dancing were grave dancing on others a while back, so these people might deserve it. Either way, I have never understood why some people think that grave dancing makes them look more intelligent, it's probably the opposite.
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$123.2m follower assets
ASML and why you shouldn't worry too much about a bust
Yesterday we uploaded an article on semiconductor cycles where I said that I believed that ASML might be more insulated against a bust than other equipment companies. Today, I uploaded an article explaining why!

Hope you enjoy it and feel free to leave a comment!

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$123.2m follower assets
Commonstock rocks!
So grateful to belong to this community!

In the middle of a bear market and I haven’t seen people dumping on others or other sorts of childish behaviour that adds 0 value.

@commonstock means higher quality and healthier discussions!
In a down market Commonstock really shows it’s value— you don’t want to surround yourself with people who only tell you about their wins. Sharing about losses builds credibility. The type of people who are attracted to Commonstock in this market are in it for the long haul :)
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$123.2m follower assets
Will we see another semiconductor bust?
I wrote the following article with my thoughts on booms and busts in the semiconductor industry.

I talk about why cycles happen, why investors might be worried right now and what might happen going forward!

Hope you enjoy it!
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$123.2m follower assets
What is a real optimist?
I think the following description of an optimist by Morgan House is inscredibly valuable:

Optimists are not fools, they just acknowledge that there are ebbs and flows along the way but focus on the long term trend. Betting against long-term optimism is betting against humanity.
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Morgan is such a pleasant POV with how he shares his ideas, philosophies, & mindsets. His Psychology of Money book (which seems like it has been read by the majority of finance people across social media) is a book that I gift friends often
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