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@crosswindcap
Nick Green
$21.6M follower assets
21 following575 followers
Escape Velocity
Food for thought. I hope you enjoy and feedback is appreciated

crosswindcapital.substack.com
Escape Velocity
Everyone began to enter the room. Approaching the oval shaped stage, those representing a corporation made a right, while the heads of state made a left, splitting the single file line into the shape of a wishbone as it engulfed the perimeter of the empty chairs. One by one, they began to sit down at their designated seat, each station containing a desk plate with either a company logo, or the flag of a country. The attendees of this meeting gathered once a year for what is called “two-so-bas” — T.U.S.O.B.A.S — The United Sovereignty of Business and State. The goal of the organization is to maintain the relationship between businesses and their birthplace, securing cooperation between the two with the objective of creating a fair, safe, and prosperous future. However, this meeting was special, as it marked the twentieth anniversary since the partnership was enacted, prompting a speaker to take the stage before the meeting commenced. A man in a suit walked towards the center of the ovate stage, nodding his head and smiling as he looked towards the roar of the applause coming from the worlds’ most powerful leaders. He placed a sheet of paper on the podium, grabbed the thin neck of the microphone and pulled it down slightly below his mouth, knowing there would be a bit of upward recoil upon its release. “Today marks twenty years, twenty successful years, of global partnership between countries, and the finest businesses that emerged from them. Many of you are familiar with the great quote by Winston Churchill. It reads, “A nation that forgets its past has no future.” And although we have progressed past only nations having the responsibility of studying their history, I believe this quote is perfectly suited for where we are today as an organization. The United Sovereignty of Business and State was founded on the principle of unifying the trailblazers of today, with those sworn to uphold the progress of yesterday. If we are to have another successful twenty years, we must keep our core mission close. As Churchill put so poignantly, we will have “no future” if we fail to do so. Every solution begins first with a problem, and the problem this organization set out to solve was the ever growing hostility between the might of modern technology corporations with that of the countries that birthed them. These corporations, global in their reach, supreme in their intellect, and coursing with immense focus grew frustrated with the taxation, regulations, and leadership within the countries they operated in. This gave rise to a divide in our world, causing many of these great businesses to look for new soil. But, as both parties soon realized, leaving home was devastating to both. The countries in which these amazing examples of human achievement were founded in suffered immensely without their star pupils inside their borders. The great businesses also began to realize that the grass wasn’t greener on the other side of the pacific (members began to laugh). And so, the leaders of both our physical world and our digital world agreed to work in unison, to show that it is worth building something great and that if greatness sprouts in your garden, you have a responsibility to water it. Ladies and gentle men, I am surrounded by greatness not because greatness grew out of the desert, but because the leaders of these fine countries watered, cared after, and cultivated an environment that nourished the best of humanity. Let us pledge to water the seeds planted by the next visionary, twenty years from now. Thank you.”

$DPZ has slightly modified and simplified their online check out options to make it easier for their understaffed employees.

Nothing a little recession can’t fix….

The labor shortage at a time of excess liquidity and everyone sitting at home becoming professional money managers was a wild phenomenon. But quite obviously unsustainable in retrospect.

But I believe in the crypto bros and their ability to return to the world.

Me:

They broke the system, and now they’re admitting it. We have stagflation with a $120B trade deficit and low unemployment. This is a 10-15 year hole of no returns.

Also me:

There is no way $CRWD doesn’t crush it tomorrow.

Well done on this meme! I know well this kind of black and white thinking. ;) Macro vs 1 stock. 10-15 years versus 1 day. As investors it can be destructive if it leads us to take poorly calculated risks. The reality probably lies somewhere in the middle but you've certainly captured how it can feel.
+ 4 comments
$BTC trades like other high risk assets. It has no hedge, it’s as risk on as you can get.

Tight money (IF we get it) will kill $BTC before it can replace fiat.

Value will flow to tangible goods, not internet money.

There is applicability in blockchains and smart contracts.

This resonates.

One follow on question is, how tight can monetary and fiscal policy get before servicing national debt becomes too burdensome and the Fed slides back to being very accommodating?
+ 3 comments
Being too entrepreneurial in your thinking can negatively impact your portfolio.

A long-term investor will benefit greatly from owing businesses that don’t interest them at all.

Modern Prosperity
Some food for thought on your Sunday Morning.

t.co
Modern Prosperity
My thinking tends to be better when I ask myself simple and broad questions that take decades to play out. If I can answer it correctly, combing through the people, technology, and beliefs that will fluctuate but eventually persist during that time becomes a bit more clear. So, I ask myself a very simple question. Does America deserve the prosperity it has seen over the last half century to continue?

I loved this piece, Nick! From Jordan B. Person, Charlie Munger, Malcolm Gladwell and Nissim Taleb you've distilled the ideas from my favourite thought leaders. You raise some really important questions, I've now subscribed to Crosswind Capital :)
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