Ambrose's Posts | Commonstock

$70.3MFollowers

@zebo05/31/2021

I think Bitcoin / Crypto might crash $BTC.X $ETH.X

Would love to hear y'all opinions

Disclaimer: I am not a trader and do not have much technical analysis experience. But, hear me out.

Back story:

Recently, I was learning about the crypto space and really got interested in the Defi space. I was trying to time my entry to buy the best price at the recent.

So, I start picking up some day trading information.

So...

This is the recent 1D candles of bitcoin chart. As u can see, above the candles are blood-red diamonds with no green signal in sight. The yellow crosses indicates huge money outflow ( A.K.A whales dumping)

Red diamonds meant wave trend (WT) crosses down

Red X means EMA trends down

Blood diamonds meant WT and EMA down (red diamonds + cross)

Yellow X means RSI + WT + rsiMFI all down

As u can see, there are no-green signals since the drop, and more and yellow X indicating whales are still dumping.

The only time in the last 4 years (Max chart) there were yellow crosses were in the 2018-2019 crash

My opinion:

I think that the worst dip might be coming in a week or 2 which the 2nd cross might appear. Before there will be a sizeable bounce. Gotta feeling YTbers are really fatigue repeating it's the bottom now, buy now.

My guts are telling me they will go quiet by the next week if it dumps just like the small-cap crash in March.

In all honesty, you probably shouldn't trust me with little experience with technical analysis. Would just like to hear your opinion about it.

Positions:

Am considering tossing some money for a fun bet once Binance validates and leverage farming, shorting non-stable. Not planning to put much since I am still bullish on bitcoin long-term.

Ambrose

@zebo05/31/2021

Aww man feels very wrong, feeling like an idiot shorting bitcoin xD

+ 4 comments

Ambrose

$70.3MFollowers

@zebo01/28/2021

The silent crash

Is anyone looking at how money is slowly flowing out of normal stocks as retail investors rush for the heavily shorted stocks? Not to mention how hedge funds are heavily leveraged on some stocks "ahem" not to mention.

Pure speculation but either side of the trade isn't going to end well for the stock market.

If it comes to a point when

Retailers get burnt and lose money, money does not flow back into the sector
Retailers continue pouring money out of normal stocks and into these heavily shorted stocks

Hedgefunds other long positions dropped significantly causing a margin call on their short position.
Hedgefunds short position increase causing margin call.

It may cause massive liquidation and send stocks much lower than the current dip.

**What can we do?

Trading**

In the few weeks when playing around with penny stocks, I realized that the pump and dumps are pretty resilient to the overall market movement.

So it wouldn't be that bad to pick up the opportunity to learn about penny stocks and trade them at the same time keeping some liquidity.

"Semi-hedging" into the heavy movement stock

Funnily, you could "hedge" into these heavily shorted stocks and immediately sell them if some of the scenarios above happen.

Finally, maybe all of this speculation is just rubbish

The market could always just sideways back in September 2020.

Would love your guys opinion on this?

Rachel Wolitzky

@drrachelstocks01/28/2021

So well done, not much to add 🙌

Definitely money flowing not-so-slowly out of normal stocks, and my charts are all confused.

We’ve never before seen what this much retail access, no commission, viral communication and anti institutional sentiment can do. If rules can hold. All systems need a good test.

And don’t know where money will land in the end.

So market will do what it needs to do, nothing I can do about that except try to stay attuned. I’m investing in businesses and people, so if thesis intact, not much to change. Do what I need to do to make me psychologically comfortable so that I don’t male bad decisions. which means keep more cash (always hard), maybe slightly reduce position sizes, and do some short term hedging w options which makes it hurt less ;)

Also keep some cash for small fun plays to distract me from long positions

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Ambrose

$70.3MFollowers

@zebo01/27/2021

$GME I'm in BOIZ

I gonna head out tmr to buy more $GME. I do not think the actual short squeeze happened yet with short interest increasing after the gamma squeeze. 3 institutes tried to bail Melvin capital out with 2.3bil when $GME was at $100.

I know this seems like a very foolish move and do not expect my money to ever come back. But, ya got to hurt the short-sellers where it hurt the most.

C'mon, how doesn't love to see a short-seller go bankrupt xD

Smiles at Melvin capital with Schadenfreude

Edit: It seems like Melvin cap close their position. Need to confirm the news. I not adding to the position anymore. Am taking some profit instead

Colin

@dblplay01/27/2021

I'm in on $AMC, up 65% after hours and we'll see if the Robinhood warriors take this to $20

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Ambrose

$70.3MFollowers

@zebo01/14/2021

10x personal net worth in about 8mths.

So. I recently 10x my total net worth from $6.4k to $68.13k today as of this writing. For context, my portfolio is $83.18k and I am leverage 5K at the start + another 10k to my Mom.

As a 19 year old that started investing at the start of April last year. $68k is a lot to me personally. If any inspiring young person is out there wondering that can it be done, YES!

So how did I started investing? I began when I was surfing youtube and finding out Tesla making a lot of people rich and then the next recommendation showed that Tesla dropped a lot and people lost a lot of money. Oh, the duality of life.

I touch the market on 27 March with the worst broker "Saxo" (Lost 1% every trade for conversion) thinking of making a few quick bucks. Bought Nike and Boeing when it spikes like 10%-ish and immediately selling for a loss. My first few trades I made quite a significant loss. So, I came across this MF thing and still with the I'm going to be rich mentality and bought the $2k package. (Was very foolish xD ). Also, reflexing on my past losses were mostly due to the bad broker. I started fresh with IBKR at $6.4 and surprisingly managed to convince my Mom to lend me some money (she agreed to $5k).

So, my broker account started at a whopping $11.4k. A second chance with my Mom's money at stake. This time I was more careful with it, watch many MF investing streams. I didn't put all my money into the pumped up news stocks and accepted that investment is not a lottery but a long term game. I stopped buying at every spike and selling at every dipped and eventually also do it the opposite, sometimes :).

I think the biggest take away is that new investors only want immediate returns. I have seen many people asking me the same question, "Will this stock jump?" or "Is it too late to get into it?". If you believe in the stock long term, it will go up and it is never too late. All you need is patience and due diligence in investing.

Recap on my last picks:

$ADAP gained 12.7% from $5.32 to $6.01 in 3 weeks

$BNGO gained 50% from $4 to $6.34 in 2 weeks

I am still long on $TSLA.

Using $CLSK as a BTC play

Congrats to those who bought the dip or DCA. It is your hard work to do research and click the buy button, not me : )

Happy investing.

My portfolio now, 729.21% gain

https://imgur.com/a/BUBN7A4

For those wondering why is it different from CS. I have warrants and also CS calculate based on past stock movement and I didn't invest when Tesla is back at ATH in January.

Imgur

Gains

Discover the magic of the internet at Imgur, a community powered entertainment destination. Lift your spirits with funny jokes, trending memes, entertaining gifs, inspiring stories, viral videos, and so much more from users like ZenoTheGreat.

Demetrius

@isitmonday01/14/2021

Great work!

+ 5 comments

Ambrose

$70.3MFollowers

@zebo01/04/2021

Why you should put Bionano Genomics on your watchlist.

My BNGO DD: https://docs.google.com/document/d/17gukf1TxL_ThREafPcbcBWlU8AuKxQuUrUHeAW0YdBo/edit?usp=sharing

I think it can easily reach $10B market cap. Then I would be concerned about scaling.

It is currently $4.02 after a huge run-up. So I highly recommend to wait and put it on your watchlist. When it dips and after a green candle of confirmation, consider getting some.

Google Docs

BNGO

Chris Tolvkin

@tolvkin01/04/2021

Wow, now it's at $6.32. Is this a stock momentum traders should be looking at? I'm not a day trader, but from looking at the trade history of @christina it kind of looks like this is the kind of stock that people buy into for a couple of hours and then sell out of once they hit a pre-determined profit target.

Is that the mindset of people who trade a lot? Would love to get your thoughts @coop

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Ambrose

$70.3MFollowers

@zebo12/23/2020

Why you should buy adaptimmune

Skip ahead, if you are not interested in science.

THE CATALYST

Yes, its a bio play. Their T-cell therapy ADP-A2M4 has insane efficacy of response rate of 44% and disease control rate of 94%.

Not convinced? Heres another.

Complete response, 100%. Synovial sarcoma is not even under control. It is completely gone.

Well, it gets better here. Since their T-cell therapy is so successful, why not test on other cancer. They did!

Note the survival time left for gastroesophageal cancer patients (less than 15 months).

Controlled in 8.5 months, 51.52% reduction.

The goal for trial 2 is to expand the T-cell treatment to other cancers. Since the results are very promising, they are trying to target more diseases.

THE INSTITUTION RESPONSE

Yep, the institution holds 99.80%. Very interesting.

Oh look, even the people in the company are buying. What a coincidence!

https://www.glassdoor.sg/Jobs/Adaptimmune-Jobs-E814980.htm

Oh my, so many positions up for hire.

And lastly, my favorite part. It has high growth of 41.9% in 2021. @nathanworden knows I love high revenue growth.

**THE STOCK PRICE

It recently sold off from $11 yet institutions kept buying. The current price is at $5.32. Low risk-high reward boiz.

I personally think this is a great stock that comes once in a blue moon. What are your opinions?

@nathanworden take on $ADAP, https://share.commonstock.com/GErfN72Jrcb

Slides: https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_ca8c151149b3be79feb52f7cf4ade8ba/adaptimmune/db/249/3098/pdf/December+Corporate+Deck_01Dec2020.pdf

Institution holdings: https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/ADAP/institutional-ownership/

Insider trades: https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/ADAP/insider-trades/

Analyst targets: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ADAP/analysis?p=ADAP

Ryan C.

@rconn298612/29/2020

@zebo - thanks so much for this detailed explanation. I am trying to dive in a bit more as a non-biotech expert! Two quick questions - (1) are there any other successful biotech companies that this companies current trajectory resembles so we could compare and contrast what the long-term timeline might look like? and (2) @nathanworden "Adaptimmune is a good company to pick to exploit this dynamic, in my opinion, because of the longer-term potential of engineered T-Cells." - does this mean that they have some IP that could be super valuable even if the clinical trials fail? Would love to understand if/how this is a "less risky" play than traditional biotechs. thanks again!

+ 4 comments

Ambrose

$70.3MFollowers

@zebo12/23/2020

New portfolio strategy

The original concept came about this year when I started investing. Back then I was new to investing (prob still am), I subscribed to MF premium service and listened to their advice.

"Winners keep winning!"

And they always keep adding to their top positions in their portfolio. I was skeptical at first but results did show with $TSLA becoming the top position, 99% Tesla.

Here comes the controversial part. My portfolio strategy.

A bit contradictory to the hold 3-5 years advice from MF, in my own strategy, I would sell some of the worst-performing positions to add to the winners. (10% per quarter).

This will regulate your portfolio to not accumulate under-performing positions over 3-5 years and also prevent over-diversity.

Of course, you can tweak the percentage to sell-off to your liking or even selling every half a year. But I propose selling 10% per quarter.

If 1 year out the stock jumps. (100%-10%)^4 = 66%. You are still in the game about 66%. While after many years and still no signs of movement, you are probably out of the position.

Hence this cleans up the massive diversification flaw of your portfolio.

And 33% from the 66% position would probably be doing well in your winner stock too. Thus, it is really hard to say that u lost money from selling the initial position.

Ryan C.

@rconn298612/23/2020

I like this approach - seems reasonable and incrementally over time helps you re-balance. Great way to think about it. I think the difficult part will be certain stocks might appear as "losers" then turn around the next quarter/year etc...

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Ambrose

$70.3MFollowers

@zebo08/17/2020

Regarding active investing vs passive investing

Replying @nathanworden

I think sometimes people overthink active investing. The right picks might be the ones already right in front of you in the portfolio. It can be as simple as adding more positions into it.

You do not have to do the biggest plays and buy into the next big thing. The stock market is always forward thinking, so are you in the past.

Passive investing sounds fine until you realized reds creeping towards -50%. Like a bonsai pot, your portfolio needs trimming. Sell the ones that are not performing, those that do not follow your investing thesis and add them to your winners.

Slowly sell away your losers (~10% every time) and add them to your winners. That, I think is smart investing.

Nathan Worden

@nathanworden08/17/2020

Great memo @zebo. I agree with you on balance. I get a little worried that the "winners" won't keep winning. But so far my experience has been that winners do keep winning, and that trimming your "bonsai pot" is a good idea :D

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Ambrose

$70.3MFollowers

@zebo08/08/2020

Why Tesla

It's the only mega-cap that grows 50% per year currently

Ai transport. THE BET for 10x growth

2\. Full self-driving is close to completion yet competitors haven't seen start their 4 years of data collection.

3\. Full self-driving now is almost capable of delivering good from 1 place to another today and its potential market is calculated to be above 1 trillion. This is just the beginning of autonomous transport. FSD is the micro in innovating the future of the transport sector.

The macro of transport (future growth of tesla) involves increase efficiency autonomously based on transport nodes and highway. Trucks are calculated to be position in high and low volume transport optimally. SaaS Macro automation after FSD completion. (Buses anyone?)

Elon cares only about autonomous driving working, cause he is only interested in revamping transport like The Boring Company. level 5 autonomous driving is just a milestone by 2021, not the end. Futurised transport and low carbon emission is Elon's goal. By the time companies gets the data in 4 years' time, tesla would have moved on to macro automation.

Why I highlight data, cause of privacy laws. U cant buy data (EU laws etc), data is known as black gold. That's why google remains where it is today

Solar business

4\. Just having a higher battery capacity and auto bidder enables unprecedented revenue to operational cost ratio.

5\. Energy businesses still have to operate at unprofitable margins (It is just not profitable to on-off power plants). Bankruptcy means more demand for energy.

Automobile company

The same scenario as above. Low cost, cause old companies to go bankrupt. More customers to sell.

Currently holding to 46% Tesla long.

Nathan Worden

@nathanworden08/08/2020

Good memo. I'm also very bullish on Tesla.

One risk I'm looking at though is within your point number 3: "Full self driving is now ALMOST capable of delivering goods from one place to another." The key word here is "Almost".

Almost makes it sound like full self driving is right around the corner. But it may be farther than we think. The Society of Automotive Engineers has their 5 levels of automation:

0\. No Automation

1\. Driver Assistance

2\. Partial Automation

3\. Conditional Automation

4\. High Automation

5\. Full Automation

Right now we are somewhere between levels 3 and 4.

At level 3, the human driver still has responsibility to intervene when asked to do so by the automated system. At level 4 the human driver is relieved of that responsibility (no driver attention is required for safety. The car can safely park itself if it is in an area it can drive safely) and at level 5 the automated system will never need to ask for an intervention, in all weather conditions, all over the world.

It turns out the level of difficulty to get from level 4 to level 5 is harder than any of the advancements from one level to the next. Some experts are saying that level 5 automation may never be possible.

So the question becomes, are you prepared for the downside if Tesla Full Self-Driving never materializes? Personally I think that Tesla will still be worth more in the future, it just won't be a multi-bagger.

What are your thoughts? Do you think Full Automation is possible? Are you hedging the downside if that does't happen? I know you are very long Tesla- so a great question for you is:

'What would have to happen for you to allocate less of your portfolio to Tesla?

+ 1 comment