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@rconn2986
Ryan C.
$14.6M follower assets
Note: My brokerage is not linking correctly right now unfortunately :-(. Buy and hold promising growth tech stocks. Angel investor. Avid Sailor. Aspiring Kitesurfer. Go HOOS!
109 following99 followers
SPAC ATTACK!!
The past few weeks I have researched strategies and investment approaches to SPACs. Unfortunately, I didn't identify a TON of easy-to-use resources; however, I very much enjoy this intro. (All credit to SPACDaddy)

SPACs can appear very intimidating for many investors - complicated timelines, tickers that change, and a whole new set of jargon "above/below NAV." However, they can prove a very rewarding, exciting investment. SPAC investing is "as close" to late stage venture capital investing as a retail investor can enjoy.

Here are a few simple tricks/techniques to understanding SPACs for the beginner/intermediate investor. Hope you find them helpful:

  1. Understand the SPAC timeline. Specifically, get a sense of the transition from "Units" to "commons and warrants" to "Definitive agreement/merger." The terminology matters - the intro link I provided above is a great primer.
  2. Read through some SEC materials on a SPAC. This is helpful to understand how and why warrants are redeemed. Take the time to walk through a prospectus and investor deck.
  3. Study the price movement of stock tickers that began as SPACs. Great examples are $SPCE and $SKLZ. Understand why and when these tickers "pop".
  4. Go deep...on a few current SPAC tickers that are PRE-DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT. Understand why they are trading at the price they are. Is the industry they are targeting appealing? Does the leadership team have a lot of credibility?
  5. Patience and strategy. Before you start investing, decide if you will target a specific sector or stage of SPAC. Will you invest in only warrants? Only units? What industries appeal to you? Perhaps you will build a portfolio of SPACs and buy/sell the tickers as they announce merger candidates. Some traders only buy/sell warrants and (can) generate very impressive returns.
  6. Again, patience. SPACs take time. This is a great Tweet from Chamath today about SPAC performance. You might need to hold a ticker that has very little price movement for 18 months, then will very quickly 2x. Be prepared for the wait.
  7. RESEARCH, RESEARCH, RESEARCH. In my opinion, many companies that should not be in the public markets are going public via SPACs. Be very careful in the companies you invest in; research and proper DD is very important.
  8. Feel free to reach out to me if you want to know more or have questions about SPACs!

My 2021 #FOMO Portfolio
PROBLEM: I keep identifying long term stocks that I don't have any room for in my primary trading account (ROTH IRA). I have done enough diligence in the stocks that I am (hopefully) confident in the stock/ETF over the next 1-2 years. I have also been reading a lot how "winners keep winning" and "don't be afraid of buying into high performance/high price stocks"

A lot of investing/trading is understanding and mastering psychology.

So...

I have carved out a small portion in my taxable 401(k) account that I will call my #FOMO portfolio.

I have done this for four (primarily psychological) reasons (a) to avoid overtrading solid tickers/missing out on stocks that have already taken off (b) so I can "feel" like I have a piece in a lot of the stocks that I am bullish on long term (c) track/compare my buy and hold strategy performance against my less diversified/more "active" swing trading portfolio and (d) not chase too many "new" stocks this year and focus on my current ROTH trading portfolio.

Are a lot of stocks overvalued? Am I "getting in" too late? Only time will tell - again, this is not a very high percentage of my total net worth.

But, either way, I will sleep better this year and trade better knowing I have taken care of my #FOMO.

Do you have a FOMO portfolio?

Here goes:

  1. DIS

2. AMD
3. ROKU
4. PINS
5. BB
6. TSLA
7. ZM
8. CURI
9. TDOC
10. SFIX
11. COST
12. HD
13. BETZ
14. ARKQ
15. CELH
16. SPCE
17. FUTU
18. CRSR
19. U
20. YOLO
21. FUBU
22. ABNB
23. PGNY

@amanda01/19/2021
This is awesome! I’m rearranging my stocks so that I’m doing FOMO via my Roth (small account)
+ 8 comments
An Analytical Approach to Competition?
Whenever I have analyzed new companies or new markets, accurately measuring and predicting competition proves incredibly challenging. Who already dominates the market? How will existing companies respond to new products/features?

In early-stage venture investing, understanding existing competitors is truly an art. For example, I have invested in certain early-stage startups that hope to directly compete with Stripe. Stripe is definitely the 10,000 lb. gorilla/unicorn/etc. in the room. It is extremely difficult to analyze how a startup will take on existing competitors - especially in new and emerging markets.

Building off the fintech example, Square's Cash App competition with Paypal's existing tool, Venmo, would be challenging to initially predict and interpret. In my opinion, the Cash App is currently eating Venmo's lunch. But how would an investor analyze Square as a competitor to Paypal before the competition actually "occurs"?

I wanted to open up my basic question to members of the community - does anyone have a truly analytical, methodical approach to interpreting competition? As in, how does one pick one stock over 2-3 existing competitors? Zoom is a great example of a company in an incredibly competitive market that has emerged as a clear winner (at least for now). Several years prior, however, Zoom's competitors seemed incredibly daunting (Microsoft, Google, etc.).

How do investors in this community approach competition? I have a few general factors below on how to think of existing and future competition, but I would love to hear from the community.

  1. Market Size - What is the current market and what percentage of that market do existing companies own?
  2. Customer NPS - How much do customers LOVE an existing product? Peloton's community is OBSESSED with the bike. It will be difficult for competitors to pry customers from the product.
  3. Focus - Does the competitor really focus on this market/product, or is it ancillary to their core product? AppFolio recently sold their legaltech product suite to really focus on their core property management SaaS tool.
  4. Financial Metrics - Does one company have the cash on hand to compete? Are they drowning in debt? What is their commitment to R&D?
  5. Legacy Industries - How fast can "legacy" competitors respond to competitors? I read an anecdote that some legacy insurance companies launched a horrendous insurance product called "Limeade" to compete with "Lemonade" -- Lemonade has done incredibly well in part because their competitors (legacy insurance companies) cannot rapidly innovate.
  6. Winner Take All Market? - Is there one clear "winner" to this market? Can multiple players compete? Payment processing is a great example of a market with room for multiple "winning" competitors.

Anything that I am missing? Thanks in advance!

I would bookmark this memo if that feature were available.

You have a great list going already. Just starting with what you have here when evaluating the competitive forces is a really good exercise.

Here's one I'd add to the list:
Drawing from "Porter's Five Forces" I would say 'consider the leverage of the suppliers.' Who supplies the company with what they need to make their product/service, and what leverage do those suppliers have to raise prices on your company?
+ 8 comments
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